Ryan Garcia vs Oscar Duarte odds, betting trends, predictions, expert picks for 2023 boxing fight

30-11-2023
5 min read
Golden Boy Promotions

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Ryan Garcia will look to wash out the bad taste of the knockout loss to Gervonta Davis earlier this year when he returns to action against Oscar Duarte at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas on December 2. 

Garcia (23-1, 19 KOs) will be making his debut at 140 pounds while also switching trainers from Joe Goosen to Derrick James in hopes of jumpstarting the next chapter of his career. Prior to suffering the loss to Davis, Garcia had been on a roll, stopping six of his previous seven opponents. But he had clearly outgrown the 135-pound weight class and desperately needed to move up. He has now arrived in a crowded super lightweight division that features the likes of Devin Haney, Regis Prograis, Subriel Matias and others. He'll have to make a strong impression if he plans to compete for a world title.

WATCH: Ryan Garcia vs. Oscar Duarte, live on DAZN

Duarte (26-1-1, 21 KOs) has finishing power, as evidenced by his 81% knockout rate. He's currently riding an eleven-fight winning streak with all of his wins coming inside of the distance. He's a relatively unknown fighter but can make a name for himself should he manage to pull off the upset. 

The Sporting News breaks down how to bet on his upcoming fight and where the most value is at. 

Ryan Garcia vs. Oscar Duarte betting odds

Per Fanduel, Ryan Garcia is a -550 favorite while Duarte is listed as a +340 underdog

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Betting trends for Ryan Garcia vs. Oscar Duarte

Per Fanduel

  • Garcia via KO/TKO: -128
  • Garcia via Decision: +280
  • Duarte via KO/TKO: +580
  • Duarte via Decision: +880
  • Draw: +1800

MORE: Everything you need to know about Ryan Garcia vs. Oscar Duarte

Ryan Garcia vs. Oscar Duarte prediction, best bets

Many people are surprised that Garcia would step into the ring against a man who appears to be a viable threat due to his knockout rate and overall record. But Golden Boy Promotions had to be careful with the matchmaking for Garcia considering that he remains the promotion’s biggest draw and a loss at this stage of his career would be catastrophic to both the fighter and promotion. 

CHECK OUT THE LATEST ODDS ON GARCIA VS. DUARTE WITH FANDUEL HERE

According to Boxrec, Duarte hasn’t been down in his professional career and his only loss was a split decision to Adrian Estrella in 2019. Although there aren’t any notable names on Duarte’s resume, Estrella was stopped by current IBF super lightweight champion Subriel Matias and recently stopped by Shohjahon Ergashev in one round. Ergashev quit on the stool against Matias. Against Estrella, Duarte was susceptible to the counter left hook, Garcia’s bread and butter. Duarte also does a lot of following rather than effectively cut off the ring. Garcia won’t have the height and reach advantages he’s had at 135 pounds, which can be a point of concern. However, Garcia’s extraordinary hand speed and how quickly he can find his target with the left hook will eventually take down Duarte. 

Before the loss to Davis, Garcia had stopped six of his last seven opponents with Emmanuel Tagoe’s reluctance to engage the only reason why he managed to go the distance. Duarte is a lot more offensively minded and will certainly try to impose his will on Garcia. What will likely end up happening is that he’ll run into a shot he doesn’t see coming in the mid to late rounds. Without the knowledge or ability to survive, Garcia will get back to his winning ways with a devastating knockout victory. 

Sporting News prediction: Ryan Garcia via KO/TKO (-128)