BMW Championship expert golf picks and predictions with our PGA Pro’s best bets for the 2024 tournament

In this betting preview:

• Tournament format breakdown
• Expert picks and predictions
• BetMGM odds to win
• Betting trends from past winners
• Course overview

CASTLE ROCK, CO — The PGA TOUR released the ​2025 schedule​ last week. What I love most about the BMW Championship is that it moves. Last year it was in Illinois, this year Colorado, and next year Maryland. I understand we can't move every event, but because of the changing venue, the BMW is unique in my mind. The PGA TOUR has not visited Castle Rock, Colorado since 2006. The International Tournament was a mainstay on the TOUR from 1986 to 2006. Located just south of Denver, Castle Pines Golf Club sits at 6,000 feet above sea level. Our tournament history and data goes back that far, but our players pretty much don't. Only two guys in the field have competed here: Adam Scott (2000) and Jason Day (2006).

We are down to the top 50 on the FedEx Cup points list for the second round. Only the top 30 will make the trip to East Lake. We will lose 20 players again this week. Even with quadruple points, making the move into the next echelon is difficult. Only three players made the jump last week in Memphis from outside the top 50. The purse is still $20 million and the winner receives $4 million. The entire field plays all four rounds just like the St. Jude. As you saw last week, players can make huge moves over the weekend, so be careful writing anyone off on Thursday.

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BMW Championship: Expert picks and predictions

Best bet to win: Viktor Hovland (+1800 on FanDuel)

Here comes Viktor Hovland again! Runner-up at the FedEx St. Jude, Hovland played the final 54 holes at 15 under par. After a rollercoaster start to the season, the nifty Norwegian seems to have righted the course. The defending BMW Championship winner finished top five in Memphis on approach and off the tee.

A top-30 putter on TOUR, I love Hovland's fit at Castle Pines. Most will point toward his inconsistency this season. I’m looking at where he has been great: third at Valhalla and 15th at Muirfield Village — two incredible Jack Nicklaus designs and great comp courses for Castle Pines Golf Club.

Best bet to place: Eric Cole to finish top 20 (+200 on BetRivers)

Watch out when Eric Cole gets going. The 2023 PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year closed 2023 with four top 4 finishes in five starts. With three top 10s in his last six starts, I see Cole continuing to play well.

Cole gains an average of six strokes per week with his irons, wedges, and putter. At elevation, his length off the tee won’t hold him back. Castle Pines will yield tons of sub-par scores. After a Sunday 63 at St. Jude, there’s no doubt Eric can go low right now.

Best head-to-head: Aaron Rai over Cameron Young (-120 on Bet365)

It’s pretty insane how well Aaron Rai is playing golf. Over his past five starts, Rai has won the Wyndham Championship and is gaining an average of seven shots on the field per event. Seven shots!

On the other hand, Cameron Young can’t seem to put it all together. He's coming off three mediocre starts by his standards. On a course like Castle Pines, I have concerns for Young. He's losing 2.5 strokes per start with the flat-stick, while Rai is gaining 3.5 with his putter. Take the recent TOUR winner in this tournament matchup.

BMW Championship: Live odds to win

Odds (+10000 and shorter) courtesy of BetMGM. 

BMW Championship: Conditions, winning trends

Looking back through the trends of the previous International winners, we find a couple player characteristics we really need to focus on. The first, and not a hot take, is approach play. I touched upon the need to adjust this week and watching players prepare the launch monitors are getting an incredible workout. I think these guys are taking them inside for lunch. This is such an interesting “one off” week. At least when this was a TOUR stop, we could compare course form, but these elite guys have not played on a venue this high since the 2020 WGC in Mexico (Chapultepec Golf Club). That course sat at 7,000 feet above sea level. Looking through those leaderboards we have a couple current players to watch.

I broke down the yardage buckets at elevation and we are looking at 50% of our approach shots coming from over 175 yards. Eight thousand yards is still a long course even with thin air. Long iron approach play will separate you from the field and with four par 3s averaging 222 yards in length, par will be a very good score on those holes. I can do all the math in the world, but 11 holes have downhill approaches and six have uphill iron shots in. All of the terrain considerations and length adjustments have me heavily favoring the best approach players in the best form. Only two players in the field have tournament experience at CPGC so the rest are trusting their impact.

Some approaches will be missed. It happens under normal conditions, but this week it will happen more often. I'm also adding scrambling skills to my research. Miss a yardage or get close to one of these 600+ yard par 5s and you'll need a savvy short game to score. The target is 20+ sub-par scores. Getting there will require a couple of accurate pitches. Not to mention, a few sand saves or around the green par plays. Walking the property it is obvious the ground is receptive. For those with a great iron and short game, I see a definite advantage.

Nicklaus loves levels in his green complexes. Much like the cascading falls you see alongside these fairways, the greens have layers as well. Three putting is a consideration and considering the firmness and speed, this is the opposite of last week. We need good putters. Team "no-putt," need not apply. So many of the greens blend into the landscape of the mountain. Good green readers see outside the putting surface. Bad putters will miss these visual keys and miss. The Poa annua - Bentgrass blend we see often enough to realize who excels on that surface. The greens look and feel perfect. It is easy to say most weeks, but good putters will score and separate themselves.

Once again, this course is 8,000 yards. We have to play bombers if we expect to gain an advantage. Last week in Memphis was the week to play the positional guys. These fairways are generous and guys will be letting the shaft out with the big stick. Ball speed is a featured skill when the average par 4 is 479 yards! I know there's an elevation adjustment, but considering the opportunity four par 5s present, the guys who can get home in two will have a huge advantage over four rounds.

Outside of the occasional par save and scoring pitch, I'm not nearly as interested in bogey avoidance as I am BoB%. We need guys who score this week. When they played the International, it was a Stableford event. That scoring format is perfect for places where birdies are commonplace. For example, nobody would watch a US Open using Stableford when half the field has zero points. We need aggressive players this week. Unfortunately, one of the most aggressive players on TOUR is Scottie Scheffler.

Few courses have as many elevation changes as Augusta National Golf Club. We know Jack loves that course and there are a couple of interesting tee shots and approaches that remind me of Magnolia Lane. As I walk around, I'm in awe of the setting, but overall this isn't a very tough track. Your long iron game will really help you on the par 3s. I like guys who are great 200+ scorers on par 3s as an extra edge. Winning will require 20+ sub-par scores. Possibly even 25, as these guys are really good. As the field tightens, so will our outright card. Take a look at this week's list and let's get number win number 10.

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BMW Championship course overview: Castle Pines Golf Club

Jack Nicklaus designed Castle Pines Golf Club in 1980. Set atop a mountain, we are 1,000 feet above mile-high Denver. At first glance, the par 72 layout measuring 8,130 yards more than catches your attention. Fact is at this elevation, the players will experience a 7.5% increase in carry distance. Quick math, that reduces 8,100 yards to 7,400+. A 7,400 yard golf course with four par 5s will allow for some serious scoring. Twenty years ago when the equipment was far inferior to today's tools, the average winning score was 20 under par for the final 14 years The International was played. To compound the scoring expectation, The tournament was always played after the PGA Championship. Tiger never made the trek to Castle Pines along with many of the other stars of that day.

The golf course has some crazy elevation changes. The field of 50 will walk 5.6 miles every 18-holes and climb over 660 feet! The air is thin up there and after an incredibly hot week in Memphis, I'm even thinking about the fatigue factor. Looking ahead, we are going back to the heat and humidity of Atlanta for the Tour Championship. Has anyone ever heard of the northeast in late August; it's beautiful. The forecast this week is warm for the Denver region. Temperatures are expected to be in the high 80s and thunderstorms each afternoon. The wind will be mild and not the player's most menacing challenge.

The true test of Castle Pines is really the elevation. All but two players in the field have never played here before. There are 10 holes with water in play, 77 bunkers, and 27 acres of fairway. All of those "hazards" force you to keep the ball out of trouble. These guys have to adjust their yardage books by 7.5%. For example, if you normally carry your 7-iron 200 yards, it now goes 215. The eleventh hole is a 200 yard par 3 with water in front and an elevation drop of 66 feet! Figure that one out in two practice days. These guys are going to score here, but the adjustment factor is a big part of handicapping this tournament.

The first four holes descend down the mountainside. Five six and seven meander up and down and then eight and nine really climb back toward the clubhouse. The same holds true on the back nine, ten and eleven go straight down. Seventeen and eighteen bring you back up and I mention this breakdown for a couple of reasons. This isn't just figuring out new carry distances on flat holes. The second, CPGC is full of uneven lies. The best ball strikers benefit from solid contact on all sorts of uneven surfaces. Again, I see plenty of scoring here, but the setup definitely favors the Scheffler and Schauffeles of the field.

Greens are medium sized at 5,600 sq/ft and covered in the common Poa-annua Bentgrass blend. They look perfect and roll lightning fast. This is a beautiful setting for golf. With so many cascading waterfalls and scenic overlooks it is easy to get distracted. This has all the makings of an incredible shootout over the weekend. One filled with a lot of UPS and DOWNS. Pay attention to those elite players who adjust their approach game the best over the opening rounds. Those will be our live betting leaders. Last week, the setting was extremely vanilla. A good test, but very mundane from tee to green. This venue is completely different.

Walking around on-site you can also feel an increased sense of urgency. There's two weeks left for most of these guys to close, save, or maintain their season. If you thought last Sunday was good in Memphis, wait until the BMW delivers something special for the second round of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

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