Open Championship expert picks and predictions with our PGA Pro’s best bets for the 2024 golf major

In this betting preview:

• Tournament format breakdown
• Expert picks and predictions
• BetMGM odds to win
• Betting trends from past winners
• Course overview

Let's not waste time talking about last week. After three of our outrights finished in the top four at the Scottish Open, we're onto Royal Troon for the 10th time. The 152nd Open Championship is the fourth and final major championship of the season. Our betting preview will detail the tournament, course, odds, and best bets for the weekend.

Say goodbye to the LIV golfers after this week. They literally have four events left, and you know none of them are going to get invited to the Presidents Cup matches in September. Imagine a world where Bryson DeChambeau finishes top 10 in all four majors, wins the U.S. Open, and doesn't play for the American side? What is golf doing..? Alas, as I started, let's all move on.

Royal Troon has awarded four straight first-time major championship winners dating back to Mark Calcavecchia in 1989. An amazing seaside links layout, this par-71 test at 7,385 yards is one of the most unique courses in the Open rota.

We last visited Royal Troon's Old Course in 2016. It was a historic duel between Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson. The two staged one of the most memorable Sundays in major championship history. I recommend you go back and watch the highlights online. Not only will it give you a great idea of the course challenges, but it will also inspire you in advance of 2024's last major. 

This preview is just that: a preview. For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Open Championship winners, finishing positions, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Open Championship expert picks and predictions

Best bet to win: Rory McIlroy (+800 on BetMGM)

It is time for McIlroy to win another major championship. I am not usually a Rory bettor, but I cannot ignore the trend heading into Royal Troon. Since back-to-back wins before the PGA Championship, McIlroy has five straight top-15 finishes.

Most focus on the stunning second place at Pinehurst, but I am looking at the big picture. No player has more top 10s in major championships over the last few years. Since winning at Royal Liverpool in 2014, McIlroy has five top 10s in seven starts at The Open! It’s time to take Rory and celebrate along with him on Sunday.

Best bet to place: Tony Finau to finish Top 20 (+225 on DraftKings)

Finau has five straight top-18 finishes. Two of those results came in the last two major championships. Over those five events, Finau is gaining an average of nine strokes(!) on the field.

Combine that with an incredible Open Championship record, as Tony has six top-30 finishes in seven Open starts. Here’s one final edge: Finau has positively gained with his putter in three straight events. Finau will finish inside the top 20 to cash a nice Open ticket. 

Best head-to-head bet: Brian Harman over Jordan Spieth (-110 on Bet365)

I’m amazed at this point that Spieth has not figured something out. Spieth has one top-10 finish in the last five months. He missed the cut at the Scottish Open and looked visibly frustrated more than ever. The approach game continues to haunt him while the putter has all but evaporated.

Harman returns as the Champion Golfer of the Year. Tied 21st at the Scottish Open, Brian continues to strike the ball incredibly well. In his past five starts, Harman has gained an average of 4.5 strokes on the field T2G. Take the defending champion at a moment where he is better suited to handle Royal Troon’s test over the struggling Spieth.

Open Championship live odds to win

Odds (+10000 and shorter) courtesy of BetMGM. 

Open Championship: Conditions, winning trends

Augusta National, Valhalla, and Pinehurst all placed false images of what accuracy means in a major championship into our heads. Of course, Augusta has no rough and wide fairways. Rarely do we ever see world class players punching out of trouble down Magnolia Lane. The PGA played out like a next level birdiefest, and the penalty for missing the fairway at the US Open was a random draw of possible outcomes. Royal Troon will require you to hit the fairway. Play aggressively off the tee and you may be rewarded. Should those deep drives find the long grass, there will be bogeys. I have four player priorities to focus on this week and keeping the ball in play off the tee is one of them.

The second skill is a complementary approach game. These aren't ranked in order, and all carry the same significance. Players must be able to knock it near the pin from under 100 yards and over 200 yards. Possessing a split personality of iron play acumen is required to make sub-par scores on Troon's Old Course. Just look at the opening stretch of holes. Four birdie opportunities, all with a very short wedge shot in. It will be windy and wet along the shore. Controlling spin and trajectory in those conditions is a challenge even at those limited distances. The best scramblers will eat those holes up against the competition.

We talked about approach (lag) putting at length last week. Players will take the flatstick out all over Troon. Skill with a putter will be a very important advantage most will overlook as Troon's greens are not nearly as complicated as other more "protected" rota venues. The greens are soft and receptive by all reports. That also means that they are slower than PGA TOUR greens in the United States. Look at the players who putt well overseas. They struggle on faster, more difficult surfaces. I have a couple average putters on my card just for this reason. These players thrive when they don't have to worry about 13 on the Stimpmeter.

Open experience counts. The Genesis Scottish Open leaderboard was very similar to Scottish Opens of past years. Some guys just enjoy playing creative golf. Their brains aren't challenged enough by a basic birdiefest where you point and shoot on TPC tracks. Pinehurst and Augusta National would make you think in a similar way. Don't be surprised if you see similar leaderboards to those major championships. Partly because those players are competing at a high level, but also because when the game gets hard, the best ball strikers and short game artists believe in themselves enough to take calculated risks in order to differentiate themselves from the field.

Looking through that Open Championship lens, we have to consider other secondary skills. Troon has 11 par 4s. They vary in length from 366 to 502 yards. Scoring on all types of 4s will be an incredible asset. Bogey avoidance in major championships is always a consideration in majors. Getting up and down around these greens or scoring from close range all counts. Troon sits right along the sea. As such, these are some of the deepest and most penal bunkers these guys will see in an Open Championship. The postage stamp has one called "the coffin!" Go in there and your round might be dead. Thankfully, we also live in an age where we can measure the best players in bad weather.

Yes, that's a definite consideration. It might rain throughout 75% of this championship. If that's the case, some players might just mail it in on attitude alone. Imagine you're struggling with your swing and it's raining. I'll go practice at home in Florida. Players don't always see situations as we do. While we covet any opportunity to play a "Royal" venue, they just might not. All of our outrights are seriously trending in a positive direction. They have played great over the last two months and can win this week. Toss in a little MacIntyre luck and who knows, we might just have another major winner at RTL.

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Open Championship course breakdown: Royal Troon

🚨 Betting alert 🚨 Make sure you place all of your bets by Wednesday night. The Open Championship is five hours ahead of the United States eastern time zone (New York City).

Troon's par 71 championship scorecard has gained 195 yards since 2016. Nine tee boxes have been updated or added across the course. The routing is still what makes it special. The first six holes run southeast along the shoreline. Adjacent to the Firth of Clyde, these first six predominantly play downwind and create a concentration of holes where low rounds get started quickly. Over the next six holes, players change direction five times. Included in that group is the famous "Postage Stamp" par 3 eighth. A 123 yard wedge shot, the 2,635 sq/ft green is surrounded by five brutal bunkers. One the most famous par 3s in all of the British Isles, fortunes will be won and lost should you miss this very tiny target.

The closing six holes take us back to the clubhouse. Now running northwest, all six holes play into the prevailing wind on property. Much tougher than the first six out, here is where the Champion Golfer of the Year will be crowned. Keep an eye on the two 200+ yard par 3s, 500 yard par 4 fifteenth, and entertaining par 5 sixteenth. During the duel with Mickelson, Stenson went birdie, birdie, birdie on 14, 15, and 16. That three hole stretch took control of the championship and he never looked back taking home the Claret Jug. When watching The Open, be prepared for everyone to start out strong. Rounds will be measured by the closing stretch. So be happy if you're up early, but don't turn off the television until the back nine is complete.

The weather always plays a role in The Open. One of the reasons Phil and Henrik were able to separate themselves was their tee time draw. They caught great weather the first two days and took advantage with incredible play. Currently, the forecast looks “okay” for the Championship. Rain is predicted all four rounds, but instead of a windy, wild mess it should just be wet. Temperatures are forecasted in the low 60s. The wind tops out on Sunday at 16mph. Rain is currently on the radar all day Thursday, Friday later, and Saturday and Sunday throughout the day. I currently do not see a tee time wave advantage. That all could change in the next 24 hours, but as of Wednesday morning eastern time, that's what we know. 

Remember, Read The Line comes with a direct link (above) to the real-time weather in Troon. I'm using Prestwick Airport's weather station. Outside of the R & A's own equipment, this is the most reliable station within a mile of the club. Conditions were tough back in 2016 and the cut to the top 70 and ties was +4. All of my sources across the Atlantic on property report ideal scoring conditions on the ground. Hit the fairway and you'll be able to make birdies. Green surfaces are receptive to approaches of all lengths, and the rough is thick, but fair. Missing the fairway will not involve wiregrass roulette like Pinehurst. Players will pay a price for inaccuracy off the tee.

The average pre-tournament odds of the last 10 winners of The Open are +5600. With all 50 of the top 50 in the OWGR scheduled to compete, there's a very good chance our winner could come out of that mid-range. The Open is my favorite major. I love setting an alarm for the middle of the night to watch golf in the dark. Something about watching the sunrise while the best in the world compete on what looks like a foreign planet is extremely inspiring as a golfer and fan. Enjoy the theater, because unless you're an avid viewer of the CW, Bryson, Brooks, and Rahm won't be seen again until next year. Whatever that looks like..?

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 31 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.