ShopRite LPGA Classic expert picks and predictions with our PGA Pro’s best bets for the 2024 golf tournament

In this betting preview:

• Tournament format breakdown
• Expert picks and predictions
• BetMGM odds to win
• Betting trends from past winners
• Course overview

The ShopRite LPGA Classic presented by Acer comes at the perfect time on the LPGA schedule. This annual tournament is one of two 54-hole events left on the calendar. Based upon the score we saw at Lancaster Country Club for the U.S. Open, I think the women really could use the extra day of rest. We start Friday and play through the weekend in New Jersey, just outside Atlantic City along the Jersey Shore. The LPGA has been coming here for many years — and although the golf course is the polar opposite of a week ago, I believe this week will actually reward the best players.

The Seaview Resort is a historic golf venue. The majestic white hotel sits above 36 holes designed by two of the great architects of the golden age of golf courses. The William Flynn Pines Course heads inland behind the hotel, and Donald Ross’s Bay Course extends from the front porch out toward the sea. The Bay Course stretches to 6,197 yards and plays to a par 71. The shortest test on tour, the women will play eight (of 11) par 4s under 400 yards. Even the average par 5 is only 490 yards.

This preview is just that: a preview. For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Memorial Tournament and ShopRite winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

ShopRite LPGA Classic expert picks and predictions

Best bet to win: Ayaka Furue (+1200 on BetMGM)

An essential part of successfully handicapping the LPGA starts with creating player charts based upon the little data we have available for women’s professional golf. This system is proven, and heading into the ShopRite it has highlighted Furue’s skill set.

The incredibly accurate LPGA star has been playing very well all season. Sixth at the US Open, Furue is top 10 in the field for approach play and putting. That's a winning combination when you're shopping the Seaview aisles for a victory.

Best head-to-head bet: Marina Alex over Jenny Shin (-110 on Bet365)

Alex considers the ShopRite a home game. The New Jersey native has finished top 20 in four straight starts on the Bay Course. Accuracy over length, Alex’s game is well suited for the rigors Ross presents near Atlantic City.

Shin has a couple of top 10s at Seaview in her last two starts, but I worry about how her putter is performing right now. She survived Lancaster CC, but that was a two-putt test. I don’t believe she can capitalize enough to cover Marina’s many years of solid starts down the shore.

*Best bet of the week*
Albane Valenzuela to finish top 10 (+410 on Bet365)

Valenzuela is first in the field on approach. Over her last two starts at the ShopRite, she has finished sixth and fourth. She excels at Seaview because she hits a ton of GIRs. She’s impressive overall from tee to green (ranked second) and in the past two years she has also putted well. All this has me taking her with 10 places to contend for the third year in a row.

ShopRite LPGA Classic live odds to win

Odds (shorter than +10000) courtesy of BetMGM.

ShopRite LPGA Classic: Conditions, winning trends

Winning the ShopRite is all about accuracy. The course is very short for modern LPGA standards. The tour continues to go here because the crowds give the course tremendous support, but under benign conditions it is not a tough test. The lead skill we seek is approach play. Both Henderson and Buhai were top 5 on tour when they won. The greens average 6,000 sq/ft. That’s below average, so if you hit them, you have a reasonable birdie putt. It has been proven over the years, those who do accrue the most GIRs get in the winner conversation come Sunday afternoon.

To further the SG:APP argument, due to the length of the course most iron shots are coming from close range. Great approach players have proximity control. The only defense of this course is the wind and green complexes. As we will see next week firsthand at the US Open, Donald Ross creates the most interesting putting surfaces. Players must hit these greens close to the hole if they intend to capitalize on their birdie chances. Again, the greens are not huge, and that’s why these shelves, swales, and run offs must be avoided if you are going to score.

Looking through the recent top 10s from the 2022 and 2023 leaderboards, putting ranks second in strokes gained importance. That makes sense, because this is a three-day shoot-out. Wind swept courses like this one are required to have relatively benign putting greens because the slopes will not hold balls in the wind. They do have shelves and sections, but when you get on the right plateau, the putting becomes very straightforward.

Leaders will need approximately 15+ sub-par scores to win over three rounds. A vast majority of those birdies come on the par 5s. Those same two top 10s from the past two years average 4.36 strokes on the 5s. With an average length under 500 yards, you can see why. Our outright card displays really good par 5 players. Buhai was seven under on the par 5s last year, and Henderson was four under on three par 5s in the final round of 2022!

Achieve 70 percent of your GIRs, hit the fairway, and convert scoring opportunities. We don’t need to over think this one. We have been correct the past two years. Let’s take that same strategy into this week and get three in a row. I’m not worried about mental fatigue from the US Open. In fact, I believe more players will simply be relieved they are free from the USGA. They have to be. One extra day of rest only further emphasizes the need to start quickly. I realize this event isn’t signature, but a +3400 combined pay day over two years can fill a bunch of grocery carts. So, let’s lock in and get another one!

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ShopRite LPGA Classic: Seaview Bay Course

Read The Line loves the Shop Rite. We have picked the winner in 2022 (Brooke Henderson) and 2023 (Ashleigh Buhai) correctly!

In order to achieve the three-peat, we will continue to use our winning strategy here. Having played the Bay Course many times helps, but my familiarity of working at Donald Ross courses also assists in developing a winning selection. Ross, like so many architects, has specific traits. Understanding how modern players attack certain characteristics gives us an edge. An insider’s edge we have used to win two straight years!

Editors note: the host venue for next week’s U.S. Open is Pinehurst #2, a course also designed by Donald Ross. 😉

Thankfully, the weather looks good in Galloway, New Jersey this week. The event has moved several times on the schedule, and it can get iffy in the late spring at the shore. The forecast calls for very little rain and pretty low winds (under 15mph) all three days. Temperatures will be in the low 80s and with a little 1.5” of rain in the last two weeks, the course should be ripe for scoring. After a brutal week in Pennsylvania these women will be in full attack mode.

A field of 144 players will be cut to the low 65 and ties after 36-holes. The purse is $1.75 million and first place receives a check for $262,500. In more ways than one, it certainly is a reality check as the winner a week ago in Lancaster, Yuka Saso, won over $2 million for her winning efforts! The average winning 54-hole score is 14 under par for the last decade. Six of the last 10 winners are major champions and that aligns with our two-time winning handicapping strategy.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 30 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.