Texas Children’s Houston Open expert picks and predictions with our PGA Pro’s best bets for 2024 golf tournament

In this betting preview:

• Tournament format breakdown
• Expert picks and predictions
• BetMGM odds to win
• Betting trends from past winners
• Course overview

Scottie Scheffler had to pick one event to warm up for Magnolia Lane, and the Texas Children's Houston Open is it! He starts the week as a +300 favorite to win. Not since Tiger in 2007-2008 have we seen odds this low on a PGA TOUR for a betting favorite.

In case you want to start making those comparisons...Woods closed 2007 with five wins in six starts (and one runner-up). The offseason didn't slow him down, since he started 2008 with three more straight wins. At Torrey Pines to start his season, he was an even money bet to win! He bagged a second-place at Augusta and a fourth US Open title on a broken leg. Woods' pre-tournament odds for every event in 2008 were shorter than +200. Sometimes I think a little perspective is important.

Pay attention to the changes this week. This is not a new event on the PGA TOUR schedule. The Houston Open has quite a history, and most recently it was played in the fall wrap-around season. Memorial Park Golf Course became the venue in 2020.

In three editions on the Tom Doak/Brooks Koepka design, the average winning score is 13 under par. The three winners are quite the All-Star cast: Carlos Ortiz (2020), Jason Kokrak (2021), and Tony Finau (2022). With another great (and difficult) golf course, I expect there to be a very tight leaderboard on Sunday.

Our best bet of the week for the Valspar Championship was Sam Ryder to finish in the top 40 (+140). Ryder closed with 65 on Sunday to cover. For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Texas Children’s Houston Open winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Houston Open expert picks and predictions

Best bet to win: Wyndham Clark (+1200 on BetMGM)

Let’s not overthink this: Wyndham Clark has the necessary power and putting skill to win in Houston. Clark is ranked eighth in driving distance and seventh in strokes gained putting for this field. He’s a top-30 player around-the-greens and ranked second in BoB%.

Wyndham has finished second to Scheffler in two straight events. He won the AT&T six weeks ago and still remains very motivated. It seems as if he’s inspired not just to beat Scottie, but to supplant him as the number one player in the world. To do that, second in Houston just won’t be good enough.

Best prop: Mackenzie Hughes over Beau Hossler H2H (-130 on DraftKings)

Beau Hossler has missed two cuts in a row. His approach game lost an average of two strokes against the field over his last five starts. In two trips to Memorial Park, Hossler has missed the cut both times. Mackenzie Hughes is coming off three straight top-30 results. He finished third at the Valspar and led the tournament last Sunday. In three starts on this course, he’s finished in the top 30 each time.

*BET OF THE WEEK*
Sam Ryder to finish in the top 40 (+140 on BetRivers)

Sahith Theegala just recently moved to Texas. Theegala’s low ball flight and world-class short game will be an incredible asset competing in the Lone Star state. Theegala finished sixth at API and ninth at THE PLAYERS, two weeks in which you MUST drive the ball well to contend. Theegala’s recent ball-striking has him a betting favorite. We are getting better than even money on a top 20, so take a good value opportunity to make some cash come Sunday.

Houston Open live odds to win

Odds (shorter than +10000) courtesy of BetMGM.

Houston Open past winners, betting trends

Just three editions of the Houston Open have been played at Memorial Park Golf Course since the 1960s. Conquering this beast of a course takes nearly as much finesse on and around the greens as it does power off the tee. I took a long look at the three winners and the top-10s of each leaderboard that followed them.

By comparing their play, putting was the lead area where the contenders separated themselves from the field. Those players gained almost 1.5 times more on the greens than they did with their iron game. My PGA perspective tells me this means a couple of things.

First, this course is very difficult from a ball-striking point of view. Accurate approaches to domed greens from very long-range makes hitting GIRs extremely hard. Second, if you can putt, you can differentiate yourself from the pack. I don't believe the putting will change significantly from the fall move. If anything, the new overseed will just make the greens smoother lending a larger advantage to good putters. The average par-4 length at MPGC is over 465 yards! Only major championship venues boast that kind of yardage.

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Your mid-iron and long-iron game better be ready for this test, as the most important approaches will be coming in from over 200 yards. The greens are large at 7,000 square feet on average, but they sit at funny angles and have multiple places where the ball can run off easily. Similar to the melting clocks of a Salvador Dalí painting, we will routinely see balls exit the putting surfaces and roll down into collection areas. If length and power is the most common theme between the November and March editions, I believe short-game skill will be the differentiator between the two dates.

Memorial Park was designed to create challenges in the chipping areas surrounding these green surfaces. The fall versions never really had these scenarios come to life. Around-the-green play was one of the lightest areas where players who contended could gain on the field. The agronomy of the March edition should change that. I'm favoring more short game along with putting than in the November events. The course only has 21 bunkers, but they are thoughtfully placed. Players will be tested to design and deliver shots around these greens to score.

Unlike other TOUR stops, players can gain significantly on the 3s and 5s here as compared to the par-4s. The three champions gained the most shots on the par-3s (6.2), then the par-5s (5.3) than the par-4s (4.3). Those averages accurately describe where our winners need to attack. Note, 500-plus yard par-4s are built for survival, not scoring. That's why the statistics lean this way. By paying attention to how the players attack the course we can feel confident this group of outrights will bring home a big win.

For full coverage of the Valspar Championship, subscribe to our Read The Line newsletter (it’s free!) and follow us on Twitter!

Houston Open: Memorial Park breakdown

Memorial Park is a long golf course. The par-70 layout covers over 7,400 yards. The scorecard is fixed with five par-3s again. Just like last week, one extra par-3 per day puts even more pressure on your approach game.

• Eight of the 10 par-4s are over 440 yards in length, and we only get three par-5s to score on.
• Five of the toughest six holes relative to par are par-4s.
• Three of those par-4s measure over 500 yards!
• The largest approach bucket is 200 yards and more.

If you look back at the leaderboards, length is a huge asset. Eight holes have a birdie rate of over 15 percent, and nine holes have a bogey rate above 15 percent. If the wind gets a little wild, breaking into double-digits may be a tall order. 

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The cutline in three editions is +2.3 over par. The field of 144 players will have to keep the ball in play over 72 holes if they want to make the weekend. The top 65 and ties will play Saturday and Sunday for $9.1 million.

As Peter Malnati showed us, they are also playing for an invite to the Masters. This public venue is really cool. Take one of the best modern architects in Doak — combined with the best major champion since Woods and Mickelson in Koepka — and you get a really interesting layout.

I know many of the elite players will be using this start as preparation for Augusta — but with Scheffler in the field, what better way to prepare for ANGC than to beat the number one player in the world?!