PGA Expert Betting Predictions for the Honda Classic 2023: Best bets, sleepers, and value plays to win the famed tournament at PGA National Champion Course

I’m walking the practice range at PGA National Resort and Spa watching the world’s best golfers prepare for a very tough test: the 2023 Honda Classic. Designed by Jack Nicklaus, the Champion Course serves as one of the toughest non-major courses on the PGA TOUR. Measuring over 7,100 yards, the par-70 layout features 15 holes in which water comes into play.

Today we will provide a betting overview of the Honda Classic, taking a closer look at the Champion Course, analyzing historical trends, and revealing our best bets for this famed tournament. 

Honda Classic betting guide: Tournament and course overview, past trends

Firstly, let's go over some basics about the Honda Classic itself, and what to expect for this weekend. 

• The purse is a whopping $8.4 million, with a first-place check for $1.52 million.
• There are 144 players in the field, with the top 65 (and ties) making the cut for the weekend.
• Temperatures will be in the mid 80s, with no rain in the forecast, winds in the low teens all four days, and gusts approaching 20 miles per hour.

Thirteen of PGA National's 18 holes have a bogey rate over 15 percent, and the average winner’s score since the tournament moved to the Champ is 9.5 under par. The Sunday champion has only crossed into double-digits five times in the last 15 years the tournament has been played here. Known for the Bear Trap, Nicklaus placed peril around every shot.

The four par-3s are among the toughest sets on Tour. Not only do they average an 18 percent bogey rate, they have an average double-bogey rate of six percent! Scores can inflate quickly on the Champ — and in all the years at this venue, the cutline has never been lower than one over par. If I asked 50 players on the range if they would take 10 under par today and go home, all 50 would likely do it.

With such volatile scoring, the Honda has produced the most long shot winners on tour over the past 10-plus years. The average winner’s odds are +15600 (156-1) since 2013. Only four of those winners have started the tourney with less than +8000 (80-1) on the betting board. While Jon Rahm wins every week at +500 (5-1), it is nice to see we can still create a little hope near the bottom of the odds board.

Speaking of the odds board, let's take a look at the odds to win.

Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel

Honda Classic betting guide: Odds board

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering winners, placements, H2H matchups, One and Done picks, and DFS recommendations, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Honda Classic best bet: Ben Griffin over Cam Davis (+100 on DK)

When I break down what I see at PGA National, there are a couple bets I cannot wait to place. Contending at the Champ takes great approach play. An excellent rookie on tour with a superb iron game is Ben Griffin. Nearly 50 percent of the approach shots needed at PGA National are from 150-200 yards. Ben is ranked 11th in the field for Strokes Gained Approach (SG:APP). Cam Davis cannot find his game — he’s missed three cuts in a row, and this course is no place to find it.

Honda Classic best bet: Shane Lowry to finish in the Top 20 (+110 on FanDuel) and Joseph Bramlett to finish in the Top 40 (-110 on DK)

I love the placement game, especially when I’m on property. On-site coverage just adds to the intrigue of finding the best value on the leaderboards. Shane Lowry is a favorite in the field. Yet with the unpredictability of the Champ, he’s listed at positive odds to finish in the Top 20. He has five starts at the Honda and five cuts made. Last year he placed second and last week at Riviera — another difficult test — he finished T14.

Winners of this event have shown great iron play. Second to that skill has been their work with a wedge around the green. In the last five years, winners have gained more with their short game than the putter or the driver. The field will only hit 60 percent of their greens in regulation at Honda. That figure is well below the PGA TOUR average for GIRs, meaning the short game will play a vital role.

Joseph Bramlett’s ball striking is impressive. To get around this course, one needs great tee-to-green play. He has made four starts and four cuts in 2023. In the last two, he’s gained a combined nine strokes T2G. This is a ball striker's paradise. He can keep the ball in play and with extreme length needs far less off the tee than others to compete.

Honda Classic best bet: Matt Kuchar outright winner (+2800 on DK)

Matt Kuchar showed signs last week with his wedges finishing in eighth place at the Genesis. He’s ranked first in the field for scrambling and Strokes Gained Around the Green (SG:ARG). These skills make him a great par-3 scorer — and in this evil environment, one of the favorites to come out on top. Bermudagrass is his best surface with the putter. Kuchar won this event in 2002 and has tons of win equity in this field.

I gave a close second in the outright category to Chris Kirk (+2800) for all of the same reasons. Watch your card this week just like these guys will be watching their ball. Keep it tight and in play. Follow me all weekend and rally with some in-play bets as the tournament evolves.

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