Wells Fargo Championship expert picks and predictions: Our PGA Pro’s best bets for 2024 TOUR Signature Event

In this betting preview:

• Tournament format breakdown
• Expert picks and predictions
• BetMGM odds to win
• Betting trends from past winners
• Course overview

CHARLOTTE, NC — There couldn’t be a better time for the Wells Fargo Championship. One of the most popular wins in Read the Line history came last year when Wyndham Clark won by three strokes over Xander Schauffele for a +7500 return. Considering we have compiled four wins in a three-week span (Nelly, Nelly + Scottie parlay, Hannah Green, and Taylor Pendrith), the vibes are very strong while we walk around Quail Hollow. And what a place to celebrate, as this is a venue worthy of a major championship!

The sixth signature event of the 2024 PGA TOUR schedule is the Wells Fargo. Sixty-nine players (Ludvig Ãberg WD) will compete for $20 million and $3.6 million for first place. No stranger to big events, I have been to Quail Hollow a couple times to cover the Wells Fargo and the 2022 Presidents' Cup. If Augusta National Golf Club sets the global tournament standard, the membership of Quail Hollow does their very best to impress. It's no wonder we will be back next year for another PGA Championship.

It pays to Read The Line! For the third week in a row, we won! Taylor Pendrith was one of our member newsletter picks. He was a +10000 (100-1) winner and our fourth win of the season. This preview is just that, a preview. For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Wells Fargo Championship winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Wells Fargo Championship expert picks and predictions

Best bet to win: Wyndham Clark (+1800 on BetMGM)

The only guy who continues to beat Clark is Scottie Scheffler, and he’s not in the field! Across five signature events this season, Clark has racked up a first, a second, and a third. He also finished runner-up at THE PLAYERS.

The defending champion wrapped at 19 under par last year and three clear of the field. The sacariest part: Wyndham is a much more complete player now. Ranked 80th when he won at Wells a year ago, he is now ranked third in the world. The skill set fits, and so will another signature style win.

Best bet to finish inside the top 20: Sahith Theegala (+105 on  DraftKings)

Speaking of signature events, in those same five events Theegala has two second-place finishes and a sixth. Ninth at THE PLAYERS, the Pepperdine product has always putted well.

Theegala's season’s climb up the world rankings is the result of great ball-striking. Over his past five events, Theegala has gained an average of three shots T2G and another three with the flat-stick. Take that complement of skills and cash a ticket on Sunday.

*BET OF THE WEEK*
Alex Noren head-to-head over Jordan Spieth (-110 on BetMGM)

Spieth just missed the cut in his hometown of Dallas. That’s four missed cuts in six events, including the Masters. The reason for his struggles can be traced back to inconsistent play in all aspects of his game.

Noren is a hot DFS and outright name this week. He finished third at the CJ CUP and had four rounds of 68 or better. On Sunday he closed with a 65. Follow the momentum and clean up H2H at Quail Hollow.

Wells Fargo Championship live odds to win

Odds (shorter than +10000) courtesy of BetMGM.

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Wells Fargo Championship past winners, betting trends

Winning at QHC is a very simple formula. Wyndham Clark showed us perfectly last year, and the analytics of the last 10 Wells winners at QHC back up his impressive victory. This is the fifth-longest course on TOUR. The average driving distance is 301 yards. That’s 17 more yards than the PGA TOUR average! Need more ball-speed validation? The best driver of this generation, Rory McIlroy, has won here three times. Two healthy inches of over-seeded rough also dictate success.

The most interesting analytic clue comes on the putting greens. The last 10 winners have gained over six strokes on average versus the field with their flat-stick. I picked Wyndham last year because he's a great putter. These greens are amazing. They are the closest putting surfaces you will see on TOUR to what tests the players at Augusta National. They really are cool, and these subtle new changes will only emphasize good putting even more. The field is finding out very quickly that they can make putts. Our outrights can all roll the rock. Over the last decade, the winner has gained over five strokes eight times.

Over 50 percent of the incoming approach shots are played from over 175 yards, and thirty percent from over 200 yards. Tiger taught us for 20 years that long-iron play is the quickest way to differentiate from the pack. Scheffler separates the same way with his long game. When Clark won last year, he gained nine strokes on the field with his approach play. Considering the landscape of these green complexes, proximity to the hole becomes very important. This is not TPC Craig Ranch, Wyndham made 23 sub-par scores last year because his iron game was locked in.

This par-71 scorecard boasts 11 par-4s with an average length of 456 yards! Nine of them measure over 450 yards. Par-4 scoring always indicates success on difficult courses. Survive the par-3s at QHC, score on the 5s, and win on the par-4s. The last 10 winners have gained an average of 10 strokes on the field with their par-4 play. From the drivable 14th to the now 529-yard peninsula green 16th, these 11 holes are varied and tough. Get it done here and you’ll be a major part of the conversation come Sunday afternoon.

Thirteen holes at QHC have a bogey rate of over 15 percent. In comparison, just five holes have a birdie rate over that value. Three of those holes are par-5s. You’ll hear endless amounts of talk about the finish (Green Mile) this week but pay attention to the start. Quail Hollow also has one of the toughest starts on the PGA TOUR. Holes one, two, and three play a half stroke over par. Avoiding bogeys early, late, and throughout the rest of your round is another key to success. Saving par around these immense green complexes takes short-game savvy.

I’m taking a collection of athletes this week, players who impress us with their physical skill and talent between the trees. Much like Augusta National, television cannot capture the terrain at Quail Hollow. Walking this course for a guaranteed four days is as much a mental test as it is a physical grind. 

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Wells Fargo Championship: Quail Hollow Club description

The par-71 layout covers an enormous number of acres. Set just southeast of downtown Charlotte, this is probably one of my favorite Tom Fazio designs. The course has character. There are numerous elevation changes, an awesome variety of holes, and a finish that any championship course would envy. There are 61 carefully-placed bunkers and seven holes where water comes into play, elements that build an amphitheater of excitement.

Since Wyndham’s win, the course has seen some changes. Twenty-five yards were added to the 16th hole. I guess they needed to make one of the hardest holes on property even tougher. A couple of new tee boxes were added, and most intriguing was the description of “softening” 12 of the greens. As green textures and speeds continue to become more difficult, classic courses like Quail Hollow can get a little scary on those surfaces. You’ll lose hole locations and stand a very good chance of things getting out of hand for an important championship.

We skipped 2017 and 2022 at QHC. The last 10 Wells Fargo editions take us back 12 winners. In those 10 tournaments, the average details are:

• Winning score: 12 under par.
• Cutline: two over par.
• Winner’s pre-tournament odds: +12000.

That last stat really stands out. Even when we hosted an elevated full field event last year (remember those?), the winner was longshot Wyndham Clark! Quail Hollow has provided us with seven winners with +4000 odds or longer in the last 10 years. Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Max Homa, and Clark all broke through at Wells Fargo. It’s a very interesting note, and one that factored into our outright portfolio.

Twenty-two of the top 25 in the OWGR are competing. The only non-LIV golfer absent is one Mr. Scottie Scheffler. The most notable of competitors has now skipped the Wells Fargo two years in a row. It is also worth noting that in eight days the PGA Championship begins, and Meredith Scheffler is still pregnant. Timing is everything in life, and we are about to see how badly Scottie wants to take a run at the Grand Slam.

No Scottie means we can play this signature sojourn straight up. Considering the recent run at RTL, Scottie’s absence couldn’t come at a better time. Wells Fargo is a wonderful warmup for next week at Valhalla. Many of the player features I discuss below will also apply in a week’s time. It’s almost as if we are getting the perfect warm-up venue for a major championship. There’s no doubt a signature field will also reveal some serious clues going into the season’s second major.

The course is in fabulous condition, exactly what I have come to expect when on property at QHC. The region has been relatively dry the past few weeks and we will only receive a couple of showers this week. Overall, the forecast calls for mild conditions, temperatures in the mid-70s, and wind in the low teens. Thursday could get a little wet — but with a small field and late spring daylight, tournament officials can create a great competitive atmosphere.

The Quail Hollow Club is a very strong test. Nine par-4s are over 450 yards in length. The par-3s are treacherous and the finish is the hardest on TOUR. We learned last week on the 72nd hole that NOTHING IS CERTAIN. Make sure you manifest until the last putt goes in the hole. The finishes at Quail Hollow have been electric at times, just like so many of the winners they have crowned so early in their careers.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 30 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.