In this betting preview:
- Tournament format breakdown
- Expert picks and predictions
- BetMGM odds to win
- Winning traits, past trends
- Course overview
Let's get real: we have 15 days until THE PLAYERS Championship and approximately 40 (days) until round one at Augusta National!
One player in the top 10 of the OWGR has won this year (Wyndham Clark), and Jake Knapp just stole the show in Mexico. We all love a Cinderella story, but to be honest, the stars need to step up. 13 of the top 40 in the world rankings are in the field for the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches, and tickets are still available for what what should be ideal gallery conditions. Rory McIlroy is the favorite, playing this tournament for the first time since 2018.
I believe there's a serious sense of urgency at the top of the betting board. You cannot blame the TOUR's distractions for why the favorites aren't winning. Tiger's influence over the evolution of professional players is real, and the young guns are proving it. All 144 players will have their hands full in Palm Beach Gardens. PGA National's Champion Course is historically one of the toughest non-major tests on the schedule. Known for the "Bear Trap" (holes 15, 16, 17) the layout has water in play on 15 of the 18 holes!
For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.
Cognizant Classic expert picks and predictions
Best bet to win: JT Poston (+3300 on FanDuel)
Poston might just need a change of grass. The prolific putter has six starts and four top-10s in 2024. I believe the move to Bermudagrass in Florida will be the edge needed to give him a well-deserved win. Poston has played well in Hawaii and California, on tight courses like Waialae and wide-open scoring weeks in the Palm Desert. He’s really become a well-rounded player over the last year, and this fit makes perfect sense for the two-time PGA TOUR winner.
Best bet for top-10 finish: Russell Henley (+280 on FanDuel)
Henley has been in great form since the Sony, gaining an average of two strokes T2G over his past five starts. He's heading to climate-friendly, Florida where he converts birdie chances on Bermudagrass greens. Ball-striking and Bermudagrass is why Henley has had great success at PGA National. In nine starts, he has a win, six top-25 finishes, and a top 10 in each of his last two starts on the Champion Course.
*BET OF THE WEEK*
Best bet for top-20 finish: Eric Cole (+150 on Bet Rivers)
One of the most popular outright predictions this week for statistical and sentimental reasons, Cole calls southeast Florida home. He has finished top 20 in eight of his last 12 starts. A year ago, he lost in a playoff at this same event. Winning is very hard on the PGA TOUR, but a top 20 at home makes him the best bet of the week.
Cognizant Classic odds to win
Odds (+10000 and shorter) courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
| Player | Odds |
| Rory McIlroy | +700 |
| Cameron Young | +2200 |
| Eric Cole | +2800 |
| Russell Henley | +2800 |
| Byeong Hun An | +3000 |
| Tom Kim | +3000 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +3300 |
| J.T. Poston | +3300 |
| Min Woo Lee | +3500 |
| Sungjae Im | +4000 |
| Adam Svensson | +4000 |
| Keith Mitchell | +4000 |
| Daniel Berger | +4000 |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | +4500 |
| Corey Conners | +4500 |
| Sepp Straka | +4500 |
| Stephan Jaeger | +4500 |
| Luke List | +5000 |
| Shane Lowry | +5000 |
| Chris Kirk | +5000 |
| Matthieu Pavon | +6000 |
| Denny McCarthy | +6000 |
| Beau Hossler | +6000 |
| Christian Bezuidenhout | +6000 |
| Alex Noren | +6000 |
| Justin Rose | +6000 |
| Tom Hoge | +6000 |
| Jake Knapp | +6500 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | +6500 |
| Erik van Rooyen | +7000 |
| Doug Ghim | +8000 |
| Maverick McNealy | +8000 |
| Rickie Fowler | +8000 |
| Akshay Bhatia | +8000 |
| Brendon Todd | +8000 |
| Adam Schenk | +8000 |
| Lucas Glover | +9000 |
| Davis Thompson | +9000 |
| Mark Hubbard | +9000 |
| Thomas Detry | +10000 |
| Taylor Pendrith | +10000 |
| Ben Griffin | +10000 |
| Ryan Fox | +10000 |
Cognizant Classic past winners betting trends
RTL won here with Chris Kirk (+3000) in a playoff over Eric Cole last year. Both names will be mentioned frequently this week. Their skill sets fit this test quite well. Each is excellent with a wedge and keeps the ball in play. Having played the Champion Course and been on site for this event in 2023, I know the simple keys to winning this week.
Recent champions over the last 10 years display a well-rounded skill set, but a couple trends really catch my attention. The last 10 winners have gained over six strokes on the par 3s. Par 3s require two very important skills: approach and around-the-green play.
Those same winners gained over six strokes (average) on approach in the year they won. The field secures well below the TOUR average of GIRs. This week, we are selecting GIR machines. Historically, getting up and down to save par has been even more important than hitting the fairway. If 10 under par wins in seven of the past 10 years, then bogey avoidance is key. You won't hit all 16 par-3 GIR opportunities, and saving a stroke or two with your short game is imperative.
The last five winners have gained over seven GIRs on the field, which creates more realistic birdie chances. The greens at PGA National's Champion course aren't small at 7,000 sq/ft (on average). Wind, design, and pressure all add to the anxiety of the big moments. Bermudagrass can befuddle some, but we know who the good putters are on Florida greens. The putting is not nearly as difficult as the ball-striking on these 18 holes. Players tend to make more putts than the PGA TOUR average at lengths greater than five feet from the hole. The greens are pretty flat. Read the beak correctly and you can make a bunch of sub-par scores.
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I'm also favoring guys this week who start quickly. Over the last 14 years, every winner has been inside the top nine (and within five shots) of the lead after 36 holes. Comebacks at PGA National are near impossible. The course has not had a cutline below one over par in those 14 years as well. Sixty bunkers, fifteen holes with water, and precisely-placed palm trees define landing areas and keep the driving accuracy below the weekly TOUR average. Going back to an earlier point, I think we will see a much more aggressive approach off the tee this year — and that adjustment by the competitors will create an edge. To compound this point, PGA National has added an acre of fairway grass since last year to the 18 holes.
Diving deeper into the field, past winners have gained on the par-4s. If you want to make the weekend cut (top 65 and ties) and grab a piece of that $9 million purse, you will need to win the battle between BoB% and bogey avoidance. Scrambling plays a big role in scoring this week — not just saving par, but scoring on those three par-5s from close range. When you break down the approach scoring, the biggest scoring separation happens in the 175-200 yard range.
A majority of the winners over the last decade have come in showing good form. This event has moved several times on the calendar, so the lead-up tournaments are not as important as the ability to contend recently.
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Cognizant Classic: PGA National Champion Course break down
The TOUR has competed on the Champion course since 2007. For the 2024 edition, we have one slight change to the scorecard.
The 10th hole is going to be a par 5 (530 yards) rather than a par 4. Par is now 71 and the yardage measures 7,147 yards. The average winning score over the last decade is 9 under par. Will this alteration affect the field enough to change our approach?
Definitely not.
People get hung up on par, but lowest score wins. Players will still make 3s, 4s, and 5s there. The television total may look a little different, but overall this small advantage over par is not a key factor in handicapping the event.
I'd like to focus more on course conditions. Through December and January, the Palm Beach region received nearly 10 inches of rain. It has been a difficult winter for the agronomy team. Rain brings clouds and grass needs the sun to survive and flourish. The Bermudagrass fairways, tees, and greens along with the over-seeded Ryegrass rough is in fair condition. The penalty for missing the fairway will be reduced this year, giving length a considerable advantage. Temperatures are expected in the low 80s with high humidity and breeze blowing. That will keep the ball flying, especially in the Bear Trap which will be playing downwind all week.
Even with less aggressive rough conditions, players do need to keep the ball in play. Almost every hole has a penalty area. The best ball-strikers and short-game aficionados excel at PGA National. The par-3s are a great microcosm for the challenges of the Champion. All four play over par and have an average bogey rate of 18 percent. If 20 percent of the field struggles with these holes, they are worth monitoring. TV will promote the Bear Trap all week, but the three-hole stretch of five, six, and seven on the front play to a cumulative score greater than the back nine trap.
13 holes have a bogey rate over 15 percent, while only seven holes have a birdie rate over the same value. This is partly why scoring volatility at PGA National is so common. In the last 14 years, seven winners held pre-tournament odds of +8000 or longer. Conversely, seven winners in that same time had odds of +3500 or shorter! For every JT, Adam Scott, or Rickie Fowler that has won, we have had a Keith Mitchell, Sepp Straka, and Russell Henley.
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