PGA Championship 2023: Odds, value bets, top sleeper picks, and best long shots

One of the biggest events in golf, the PGA Championship tees off this Thursday at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York. Jon Rahm (+700) and Scottie Scheffler (+800), the 2023 and '22 Masters champions and the two top-ranked golfers in the world, enter the weekend as the outright favorites to win the coveted Wanamaker Trophy and the only players with odds shorter than +1400. Reigning champion Justin Thomas will also garner plenty of betting interest at +2200. Let's break down the odds and pinpoint the best values, sleepers, and long shots for the second major of the PGA Tour season and get you ready to win some cash this weekend.

This year's Masters champion, Rahm has looked spectacular all season. The world's top-ranked golfer has four total wins, seven finishes of T4 or better, and nine top-10 finishes. If he wins, he will join a short list of golfers who won two majors in the same year. Scheffler, last year's Masters champion, is also no slouch. The OWGR No. 2 has two wins, seven top-five finishes, and 13 top-12 finishes on the season. 

However, PGA Championship victories by one of the two top-ranked OWGR golfers are few and far between, and many in the sport argue that being No. 1 rarely equates to major wins in general. Combine those two sentiments with the fact that no major has been held at Oak Hill since the PGA Championship over a decade ago — well before the East Course's 2019-20 restoration — and we have plenty of reasons to hunt for value deeper in the odds board and bet on a sleeper or long shot to win. 

MORE 2023 PGA CHAMPIONSHIP: Expert betting picks | Ranking the top 30 golfers in the field

PGA Championship 2023: Odds

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of May 15 at 4:30 p.m. ET. 

MORE: Why Tiger Woods is sitting out of the PGA Championship

PGA Championship 2023: Best value bets

Jason Day (+2500)

It's hard to regard anyone in the field as a better value than Day, the winner of the 2015 PGA Championship. The resurgent former world No. 1 looked phenomenal in the AT&T Byron Nelson, shooting a final-round 62 to lock down his 13th career win. With his $1.71 million prize payout and 500 FedEx Cup points following the victory, the 35-year-old Australian jumped to fifth in the FedEx Cup standings despite ranking just 20th on the OWGR. Count him out if you want, but Day has the kind of across-the-board talent that can fetch a victory at Oak Hill and join the short list of golfers with multiple PGA Championship wins.

At first glance, bettors might think the par-70 East Course runs short. In comparison to Augusta National, which hosts the Masters for the first major of the year, that may be true — Augusta runs 120 yards longer -- but take a look at the actual East Course layout and you will quickly realize that it spans 7,390 yards and has fewer trees, wider fairways, and a more expansive overall playing area. It also features water in and around nine of the 18 holes, a thick rough, and many deep bunkers virtually blocking the fairways and greens. Simply put, this course is tailor-made for a player with Day's skill set.

On the season, Day ranks 25th in the TOUR in strokes gained off the tee (SG:OTT) and 16th in strokes gained on approach (SG:APP). He ranks among the top 15 in the PGA in both putting and total driving, and he has maintained the 17th-best greens-in-regulation percentage (69.6). He has also been the second-best on the TOUR in scrambling, the fourth-best on par-4s, and has the ninth-best birdie rate.

Day's power as a driver combined with his fantastic accuracy on approach makes him a great bet at +2500, but his scrambling ability — on a course that's mostly foreign to this field and features a plethora of hazards — might be the x-factor. Add in his tendency to hole birdies in par-4s, of which the East Course has 12, not to mention his momentum coming from a win at the Byron Nelson, and we have Day as a tremendous value at +2500 to emerge victorious for a second straight weekend. 

Other strong values: Dustin Johnson (+3000), Tony Finau (+2500), Colin Morikawa (+3000)

PGA Championship 2023: Best sleepers

Wyndham Clark (+9000)

Clark also has a big recent win, having taken down the Wells Fargo Championship two weeks ago, and he has finished in the top six of four of his past six tournaments. He can strike the ball with as much power as just about anyone in the sport, and his SG:APP ranks in the top 20 on TOUR this season. His 68.4-percent greens-in-regulation rate makes him a great sleeper candidate this weekend, as does his tremendous scrambling success rate from 10-30 yards. Consider a modest wager on the 29-year-old American to take down his first career major on Sunday.

Other strong sleepers: Hideki Matsuyama (+5000), Si Woo Kim (+8000)

PGA Championship 2023: Best long shots

Keegan Bradley (+9000)

We will never count out a dynamic player with a diverse skill set like Bradley, who won the PGA Championship as a rookie back in 2011. The 36-year-old has many elite traits, including standing out amongst PGA's best in driving efficiency, approach game from 125-150 feet, and scrambling from the fringe. He might not be one of the five best in the world, but the best in the world would probably rank him among the guys they would prefer not to compete against in a playoff to decide a major. The Vermont native has a calm, cool confidence about him, and we wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see him shock the field and emerge with his second career PGA Championship title this weekend. 

Other solid longshot bets: Justin Rose (+13000), Keith Mitchell (+18000), Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+35000)