In this betting preview:
- Tournament format breakdown
- Expert picks and predictions
- BetMGM odds to win
- Betting trends from past winners
- Course overview
PONTE VEDRA BEACH, FL - For over a year, we have been saying, “if Scottie Scheffler could putt, he would win everything.” The defending champion of THE PLAYERS Championship just buried the field at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Even Tiger Woods never successfully defended his title(s) at TPC Sawgrass, but Scheffler looks tough to beat. You'll hear an abundance of coverage stating this is the 50th Anniversary of the PLAYERS. It's true and in that time, no champion has ever defended,
The largest elite field of the season (144 players) have converged on Ponte Vedra Beach for the PGA TOUR's Superbowl. We have $25 million dollars in purse money with $4.5 million dollars going to the winner! The top 65 and ties get a chance to compete over the weekend for the title. I'm on property all week and love this event. Genesis at Riviera has a LA vibe, API played at Bay Hill always hits close to home, but for the PGA TOUR this is the Daytona 500. The players are treated to a major championship level and the course is by far one of the most entertaining on TOUR.
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THE PLAYERS Championship expert picks and predictions
Best bet to win: Will Zalatoris (+3000 Fanduel)
We need a player who can keep up with Scottie Scheffler’s ball striking. Will Zalaoris has proven over his last three starts the back surgery is behind him. Thirteenth at Farmers, second at Genesis, and fourth at Bay Hill he continues to get sharper. Seventh in the field on approach and sixth in total ball striking, Will can once again contend on Sunday afternoon. That five shot lead he earned at Bay Hill was a valuable lesson. Put him in front again, and I believe this time he won’t look back.
Justin Thomas top-20 finish (+115 bet365)
The 2021 PLAYERS Champion has returned to form in 2024. Justin Thomas is a favorite to win again at TPC Sawgrass. I still feel there are a couple small holes in his game, but I’ll take JT to finish in the top 20 for better than even money. Coming into Ponte Vedra Beach, Thomas is top 15 in SG:T2G and top 4 in par 4 scoring.
BET OF THE WEEK: Scottie Scheffler top-5 finish (+150 bet365)
Scottie Scheffler just won Bay Hill by five strokes and he won THE PLAYERS last year by five strokes as well. I cannot bet him to win at +550 against 143 competitors, but I’ll take the win for a top 5 and watch his live odds very closely. Should they creep near +1000, I’ll bet that too!
THE PLAYERS Championship live odds to win
Here are the latest golf odds for the THE PLAYERS Championship courtesy of BetMGM.
THE PLAYERS Championship past winners betting trends
When it comes to handicapping THE PLAYERS, for most of this conversation I will be referencing the four March editions (2019-2023).
Why? Looking through the data, results, and reviewing the leaderboards it is easy to notice there's quite a difference between the two tournaments (May versus March) even when they were played at the same venue.
The most consistent player trend over the last four years is iron game performance.
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The four winners gained an average of seven strokes on the field with their approach accuracy. The range(s) where players gained the most strokes on the field were 175-200 and 200+ yards. Listen as everyone calls this a "short" course this week. By being accurate from long range you pick up more of an advantage on the field than with a wedge.
In order of importance when it comes to scoring, putting is next. Overseeding with Poa Trivialis creates a very smooth surface and one with very little grain. Certainly nothing like Bay Hill or PGA National. I won't filter for any specific agronomy this week.
Approach putting plays a role at TPC Sawgrass. These greens have incredible shelves, slopes and swales in between the various sections. Two putting is an art form here.
So many memories of THE PLAYERS involve great short game shots. Remember Scheffler's chip-in on eight last year to change the momentum of his final round. I have put more emphasis on around the green than off the tee. The greens are small and get smaller when you consider all the sections.
The last four winners have gained nearly five strokes on the field in bogey avoidance. Hit the fairway. Plenty of players in this field will do it. Many will even take less than driver to ensure a safe landing area. Rory's driver gets mitigated on a course like this. Bay Hill was a great spot to let the shaft out, noy here.
| Year | Winner | To-Par | Won By |
| 2023 | Scottie Scheffler | -17 | 5 |
| 2022 | Cameron Smith | -13 | 1 |
| 2021 | Justin Thomas | -14 | 1 |
| 2020 | Canceled (COVID-19) | -- | -- |
| 2019 | Rory McIlroy | -16 | 1 |
| 2018 | Webb Simpson | -18 | 4 |
| 2017 | Kim Si-woo | -10 | 3 |
| 2016 | Jason Day | -15 | 4 |
| 2015 | Rickie Fowler | -12 | Playoff |
| 2014 | Martin Kaymer | -13 | 1 |
| 2013 | Tiger Woods | -13 | 2 |
You can separate on tough courses with par 4 scoring. After complete tee-to-green play, strokes gained on Par 4w comes next at the top of my list. The second-most popular approach range where players make significant gains is 75-100 yards. When I see that, I always add scrambling into my research. Players that can pitch the ball and score from short range (under 100 yards) always stand out in majors and tough tests.
Of course, watching player preparation validates all of these March trends. These guys are hitting far more long irons than one would think for a 7,200 yard course. This is why being on-site is so valuable. By watching the world's best on the range you can really see what to pay attention to on paper. Look at last week, we knew the skill set. Not all guys can perform every week, but by observing on property we will always contend and win more often long term.
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THE PLAYERS Championship: TPC Sawgrass course breakdown
The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass keeps everyone on tilt. Double bogey (or worse) lurks around every shot. That sounds like hyperbole, but just watch. The par 72 Pete Dye (1980) scorecard measures 7,275 yards. Fifteen holes have water in play and the course has 92 bunkers. Golf fans know most of the holes by heart. TPC Sawgrass’s seventeenth hole sits about one mile from the Atlantic Ocean. Conditions change every day while the routing spins you like a child on a merry-go-round. For example, each of the par 3s play in a different direction.
The average green size is just 5,500 sq/ft. With wind and the elements in March, a springtime edition can be very different from the Mother's Day version. I bring that up for a very important reason. Watch your research, from 2007 to 2018 the event was played in May. Since 2019, the event has moved back into mid-March. Since the move back to March, the average winner's pre-tournament odds are +1800. Each of those four winners are major champions. Scheffler, Cam Smith, Justin Thomas, and Rory McIlroy are true "players."
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The forecast for this week looks good. Temperatures are predicted to rise into the 80s each day and there is a small chance of rain on Friday night and late Sunday afternoon. The coastal wind will be in the high teens, but I think the bigger challenge is the changing wind direction each day. This is a very target oriented test. Start guessing about your game in this wind and you won't see the weekend.
I have a couple of PGA observations from walking around. The place is firm. Ponte Vedra Beach hasn't received much rain over the past month. Tournament officials and the agronomy team have this place right where they want it. The rough is not nearly as bad as Bay Hill, but it's worse than PGA National and most of the venues they have played in 2024. The greens look really good. The Poa Trivialis we see here, at TPC Scottsdale, and other venues is really smooth. I classify it more like bentgrass than west coast Poa. I've spoken to a couple putting coaches and they were the ones who categorized it that way.
This is the first huge purse FULL FIELD event of the year. It has a very major-like feel and it should. Double the field size and it just gets crowded everywhere. Combine that sense of congestion with a bunch of 100-1+ winners and everyone is paying attention in the practice area. This is the last test before Magnolia Lane and based upon the start, many of the elite players have plenty to measure before the Masters.
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