U.S. Open 2024 expert picks and predictions: Our PGA Pro’s best bets for third major championship of the year

In this betting preview:

• Tournament breakdown
• Expert picks and predictions
• BetMGM odds to win
• Betting trends from past winners
• Course overview

PINEHURST, NC — It was a rough Sunday last weekend at Read The Line. I wrapped up my week watching Collin Morikawa come in second to Scottie Scheffler. While walking with that final group, our second runner-up finish of the day was confirmed when Ayaka Furue failed to catch a ridiculous round by Linnea Strom at the ShopRite in New Jersey. That's two runner-up finishes for us in one Sunday.

Nevertheless, we are onto Pinehurst, North Carolina with a fresh batch of best bets for the 124th United States Open Championship — better known as the U.S. Open.

This week is going to be fun. I love betting on golf, because it forces you to make difficult (and fun) decisions. There is one player in the field of 156 who is the favorite by a mile this weekend: Scottie Scheffler. This situation takes me back to the days of betting Tiger in his prime. I'll never forget the 2008 Masters. Tiger was +180 to win! Woods had four green jackets and had just won eight of his last 10 starts. What should I do...?

We always talk about the Sunday sweat. Much like Tiger's week back in April 2008, the sweat for this week started when the last putt fell at Muirfield Village. If you take Scottie — and just Scottie — you're worried all week. If you avoid the obvious favorite, then Sunday cannot come quick enough.

We haven't faced a difficult choice like this in modern (legal) sports betting. This situation is brand new to so many. As I watch the content get released across all platforms, I'm reminded of those Tiger days. You have to decide: to Scottie or not to Scottie? That is the question. What is your answer?

This preview is just that, a preview. For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the U.S. Open winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

U.S. Open 2024 expert picks and predictions

Best bet to win: Collin Morikawa (+1600 on BetMGM)

After picking him to win at the Memorial and watching him finish solo second last week, I’m going right back in: Collin Morikawa will win the U.S. Open. His performance at Muirfield followed an already stellar run of starts since the Masters, and nobody outside of Scheffler has been more consistent across the board. Just look at his finishing positions over his past six tournaments: 3-9-16-4-4-2.

Over his last five starts, Morikawa has gained an average of +2.5 strokes around-the-green and another +2 with the putter. He felt what it was like to challenge Scottie on Sunday, and he very nearly won the battle. He’ll take that confidence into this week and grab the third major trophy of his illustrious young career!

Best head-to-head bet: Tom Kim over Jordan Spieth (-125 on BetMGM)

Pinehurst #2 is a great fit for Tom Kim. Having finished T8 at LACC a year ago and runner-up at Royal Liverpool last July, Kim can contend on a major stage where scrambling becomes a key factor.

Jordan Spieth seems to be scrambling his entire career, but the difference these days comes on approach. Observing Jordan out at Muirfield Village, he is obviously searching for something. Unfortunately, Pinehurst #2 is no place to go looking. Kim will keep that major record intact and grab us another H2H win.

*BET OF THE WEEK*
Scottie Scheffler to finish first American (+190 on DraftKings)

I’m not betting Scottie Scheffler to win this week, but we can bet on specific prop markets. Instead of beating the entire field, I’ll take the world’s number one to simply finish better than his fellow countrymen. A little betting research pays off more than half of his outright odds! 

U.S. Open 2024 live odds to win

Odds (shorter than +10000) from BetMGM. 

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U.S. Open 2024: Conditions, winning trends

Again, I am not betting Scottie Scheffler to win the U.S. Open. The national championship requires too many lucky bounces — and although Scottie gets most of them, at around +300 the risk is too high. My plan to win the national championship involves another course of action: a balanced betting card.

Heading into this week, my first priority was picking competitors who are excellent long iron players. Although approach is still vital, after seeing the course conditions, around-the-green acumen is my most important player skill. It's not just chipping off tight lies either, it is the complete package. I want players who can play ANY short-game shot: waste bunkers, normal bunkers, tight lies, into the grain, with the grain, high, low, etc. You get the picture.

I have NEVER witnessed practice rounds where players are experimenting with so many different short shots! It's extremely interesting from a handicapping perspective. I'll touch on total driving and approach, but when the score remains so close to even par, the scramblers become relevant. When you review those three previous leaderboards, you see it clearly. Our outright card is favoring ARG as priority #1, and pray for Johnson Wagner this week as he tries to replicate some of the key shots.

BUY NOW: Cheapest tickets to the Open Championship

Approach play comes next, as nearly 60 percent of the iron shots will be played from over 175 yards. Attacking these greens from long range will require a very detailed game plan. Players, caddies, and coaches will need to decide where the safest landing areas are and stick to them. Going after certain hole locations will lead directly to high scores and a trip to the parking lot on Friday night. Players with a higher apex from long range will help, but I'll take all great ball strikers. For a flat course, #2 has a ton of uneven lies, so cleaner consistent contact is imperative.

The addition of those extra plantings along the driver landing areas have put more of a focus on total driving than 2014. Long and accurate is going to help some players separate. The closer you can get to these greens, the easier your approach examination will be. Considering the firm conditions, certain players will be able to take advantage of the roll out in the fairway. Martin Kaymer was not the longest driver on tour, yet by hitting the fairways he gained a ton of length from the course conditions. Whoever can take advantage in a similar fashion will be flirting with the Sunday leaders for sure.

Ten of the tee shots favor a left-to-right ball flight. Four bend the opposite way. Now, don't get too comfortable with a right-handed fader. Ross was notorious for creating switchback holes. A design feature where the tee shot requires one ball flight, and the approach bends the opposite way. It's another course attribute that tests how well-rounded your T2G game really is, and one more reason why a successful game plan is so important. Kaymer came into the U.S. Open that year with the chipping yips. He decided before the tourney he would putt from off the green. He never wavered from that strategy and it served him very well. Unfortunately, Scottie Scheffler keeps winning at Augusta National because he is the most cerebral golfer on the planet.

We built a balanced betting card that gives us the best opportunity for a very positive week. The design is simple: win, attack the live markets, and take advantage of Scottie chances where we can. Much like Valhalla, we have witnessed a little off-course drama to start the week. Let's hope once the games begin, everyone can lock in and return another week where the final putt matters. Enjoy our national championship — this is a very good golf course, and one that if maintained properly will crown a deserving champion.

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U.S. Open 2024: Pinehurst Resort & Country Club #2 course description

The village of Pinehurst was developed as a wellness retreat in central North Carolina by James Walker Tufts. The irony is that this week, a field of 156 players will travel to Pinehurst and lose their mind. The #2 course was originally designed by Dornoch's Donald Ross in 1907. The par 70, 7,543-yard examination was renovated in 2010-2011 by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw. A serious golf setting, the mixture of barren sand areas and brownish burnt fairways pose a striking visual throughout the landscape. Though the layout lacks a signature hole, anyone who plays Pinehurst #2 walks away with a lasting memory.

Walking the course, I'm awestruck by the conditions. A kaleidoscope of vegetation colors frames the fairways. It is very hot and humid down here in central North Carolina. The course was firm and fast yesterday. Maintenance crews were seen all over watering greens and other parts of the landscape. We do not expect much, if any rain for the rest of the week. There's a high sun and very little breeze. Temperatures are forecasted to approach 100 degrees on Friday. Good luck managing your hydration and patience as six-hour rounds will definitely be par for the course.

I get the same sense I had when I talked to witnesses at Lancaster CC. The USGA would like this to be a brutal test. In doing so, the course is being brought right to the edge. Don't forget, last year we opened round one with two rounds of 62 by Xander Schauffele and Rickie Fowler. That's not happening again. Ross's test has stood the test of time and will continue to measure all aspects of a player's skill and determination. What worries me most as I walk around, is what happens if we go too far. I believe luck plays a prominent role in the U.S. Open. One bad bounce in the wire grass, and your run for the trophy could be permanently derailed.

The average green size is 6,500 sq/ft. Those putting surfaces are covered in Champion Bermudagrass. That's really the only change since the last edition in 2014. Believe it or not, the rest of the routing remains untouched. The GCSAA states there are 117 bunkers, but that doesn't even count all of the natural areas. Let's put it this way: when you watch this weekend, you will see more sand than grass. A stark contrast to the likes of Augusta National and others, Pinehurst #2 is beautiful in another way.

Fifteen of the last 19 U.S. Open winners were first-time major champions. That takes us all the way back to 2005 with Michael Campbell, who won here at Pinehurst. This template test demands not only precision, but a wealth of creativity. The average cutline at three U.S. Opens on #2 is seven over par. Only the top 60 and ties make the cut, so players better bear down if they plan to play the weekend. Eight par 4s on the property measure over 450 yards. This course is long even though we will witness plenty of roll out. Truth be told, that roll out is really where all of the trouble comes into play.

This is ground architecture at its greatest. Ross designed #2 soon after he came to the states. Coming from Royal Dornoch, there's a tremendous amount of links influence in the design features. One way the USGA is countering some of the firm bounces is by keeping the landing areas off the tee fairly wide. Fairway widths are anywhere from 30-40 yards in some areas. It wasn't a design alteration, but a bunch of vegetation was added around the driver landing areas. You miss these fairways, and you will be playing a serious game of Russian roulette with your scorecard. Receive the wrong bounce and you're toast. That level of luck is loved by some, but bettors and players despise it. We will take our chances with straightforward good and bad luck.

Average winning scores don't necessarily relate, but if you go back 10 years the average winner's pre-tournament odds are +3200. Only three winners held odds over 30-1 since Kaymer captured the trophy here 10 years ago. Will there be a runaway win again? It really looks like the USGA is doing everything in their power to stop that from happening. For the field, I'm not sure if that's a good thing. Sure, making it harder increases the difficulty for Scheffler, but at what cost? The 156 who are chasing him are going to feel that pain as well. There's no doubt this is going to be an electric affair. Let's just all hope unlike Louisville, what we witness in the end is decided by golf and nothing else.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 30 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.