Valero Texas Open 2023 betting guide: PGA expert best bets to win in Texas and secure a Masters invite

At the Valero Texas Open, the proof is really in the results. Six of the last 10 winners have been long shots with pre-tournament odds of +10000 (100-1) or greater. Four of the last five winners earned their first PGA TOUR win in San Antonio. And six of the last seven winners of the tournament prior to the Masters have earned an invite to the year’s first major championship of the season.

It sounds unbelievable, but it happens almost every year. I guess the only goal in golf that can compete with all of these increased purses is a trip down Magnolia Lane.

Today we will discuss the Valero Texas Open odds, tournament and course information, past trends of winners, and best bets to win the last tourney before the Masters. 

Odds courtesy DraftKings and DK Nation. 

Valero Texas Open 2023: Odds

Valero Texas Open: Tournament and course description

TPC San Antonio is the host venue for this Texas showdown. The Oaks Course was designed by Greg Norman in 2010. The par-72 scorecard measures 7,438 yards; one of the 10 longest tests on the PGA TOUR. A 7,400-plus yard course sounds long, but much of the yardage is found on the par-5s and a couple of the par-4s. Those four long 4s average 468 yards in length and play as the top four toughest relative to par on the course.

Aside from them, half of the par-4s put a scoring wedge in a player’s hand along with the four par-5s. Wedge play is extremely important on the Oaks Course. Nearly one-third of your approach shots come from inside 125 yards. The greens average 6,400 square feet in size, so proximity plays a part in these scoring chances.

Eighteen players from last week’s WGC Dell Technology Match Play Championship have traveled down the highway to San Antonio from Austin. The field of 144 players is competing for $8.9 million dollars ($1.6M for first place) and that Masters invite. Eleven players in the field are already included in the year’s first major. I won’t be watching many of them too closely, as I’m sure they are already looking ahead.

Valero Texas Open: Past results and trends

The average winning score in San Antonio over the last decade is 13 under par. Oddly enough for a mid-teens winning average, the cutline is +2.5 over par in that period. This exemplifies the challenge that is the Oaks Course. Your score is a constant balance between birdie and bogey. First step, find the fairway and you can contend on this Norman design.

The weather in southern Texas has been warm this winter — especially in February and March. This has caused the Bermuda grass to go from dormant to growing. That weed-like grass is now coming up through the Rye overseed. Miss the fairway and you’ll be guessing what happens next. The winners have historically gained about three strokes against the field en route to winning off the tee. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that number increase in this edition.

Sixty-four bunkers blanket the landscape. Unlike many other courses, these hazards have jagged edges and unpredictable outcroppings. The contenders will be good bunker players. Seventeen of the 18 green complexes have these tests to contend with. I’d feel better about not getting into one, but competitors hit far less than the PGA TOUR average of GIR’s here.

The wedge just won’t be for scoring in San Antonio. The field will need some serious around-the-green skill to make birdies on par 5s and save par on the rest. The last two winners have each gained an average of four strokes on the field from close range with their short game. Almost as impactful as the putter, both count on this difficult test.

If your players are competing from the fairway, they will be faced with interesting angles to each of the greens. Greg did a good job of challenging the guys even though they are using scoring clubs. Almost all of the driver holes bend either left to right or the reverse. In doing so, the green complexes come at them from a variety of perspectives. Over the past five years, our winners have gained an average of 7.5 strokes against the field on approach.

This skill set will set you apart. With most of these approaches coming in with a wedge or mid-iron we don’t see a lot of separation in the field. This is one of the main reasons why I believe we see a number of long shots winning here. One of the biggest differentiators in golf is long iron play. That skill really separates the top 25 in the world from the rest. Eliminate it and your +25000 players have more of a chance.

Most players near the top of the board are looking past this week. You and I would too. For our best bets, let’s attack the middle of the board. We’ll wager on guys who have something to gain this week by playing well. In doing so, I believe the cash will be on the table come Sunday afternoon in San Antonio.

Valero Texas Open: Best Bets

Best bet to win: Tyler Duncan (+9000 DraftKings)

Tyler Duncan has nothing to lose this week and everything to gain. He proved last week by finishing in third place he’s showing great form. That’s his second third place finish in his last four starts. The other came at the Honda Classic. Both difficult ball striking tests, these two high finishes were due to great driving of the golf ball. When he does miss the fairway, Tyler doesn’t miss by much. He hits a bunch of GIR’s and ranks eighth in the field for birdie or better percentage (BoB%). Round it out with strong par 4 scoring and he’s a long shot with a solid chance to win on Sunday.

Best bet to finish in the Top 20: Corey Conners (+125 Bet365)

As a Monday qualifier in 2019, Corey Conners won this event. He has a sub-70 scoring average in four starts at the Valero, never missing a cut. This beautiful ball striker excels by hitting fairways and greens. The same reason he always top 10s at Augusta! Get some cash from Corey one week early and pick him to place on the Oaks Course.

Best bet to finish in the Top 40: Ben Martin (+175 Fanduel)

This is definitely one of those weeks where you must look down the board for betting value. Ben Martin is ranked in the top 10 of this field for ball striking, good drives gained, par 4 scoring, and approach. What more do you need to finish in the top 40? He’s made five cuts in a row and finished in the top 15 three times. Another one who plays difficult courses well because of his ball striking.

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering winners, placements, H2H matchups, One and Done picks, and DFS recommendations, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

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