For the last seven years, the Bengals' backfield has primarily been controlled by Joe Mixon. Regardless of whether fans believe Mixon is legitimately talented, he turned his role into consistent fantasy production, particularly in the Joe Burrow era. Mixon has been a top-10 fantasy RB for three straight years with a fourth coming in 2018.
But Mixon was shipped off to Houston this offseason, leaving a glaring hole in the Bengals' offense. Instead of making a splashy signing in free agency, the Bengals opted to patch this hole with multiple backs. Chase Brown was the Bengals' 5th-round pick in 2023, and he showed promising explosive traits last season. Zack Moss came to Cincinnati from Indianapolis, signing a two-year deal in free agency.
It's tough to project either of these players fully taking over the Cincinnati backfield, but given the quality of this offense, at least one of these backs should return value at cost. The question becomes, which one will it be?
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: 2024 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
As is often the case with teams who utilize a running back by committee approach, there is no clarity on how touches will be divvied up. With no knowledge of each running back's specific role, it's difficult to know which player is the better bet for fantasy purposes. But let's work through the fantasy outlook of each player and decide who should be the priority target in upcoming drafts.
Battle of the Bengals: Should you draft Chase Brown or Zack Moss?
Fantasy Football outlook for Zack Moss
Zack Moss isn't exactly a world-beater, but he proved last year that he can be a serviceable starter in both the NFL and on fantasy rosters. When Jonathan Taylor was dealing with a hand injury to start the season last year, Moss was an RB1 in fantasy. He finished as a top-10 RB in four of his five spot-starts to open the year. Regular top-10 finishes are an unrealistic expectation for Moss in Cincinnati; he dominated the backfield opportunities in those five games, something he won't do with the Bengals.
Moss's path to success involves handling a meaningful portion of the early-down rushing work, staying on the field for third downs by being a reliable pass blocker, and playing a role at the goal line. He will undoubtedly handle some of the rushing work, and his pass-blocking skills are certainly stronger than what we saw out of Brown last year, giving him a leg-up on earning the third down role.
The linchpin of Moss's success will be his ability to earn touches inside the five-yard line. Mixon saw 20 goal-line carries last season, the second most of any running back. The Bengals should continue to produce scoring opportunities at a high rate, leading to plenty of punch-in touchdowns for whichever back can earn this role.
2024 PPR RANKINGS
Top 250 Overall | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
Moss is currently drafted as the RB32 in the middle of Round 8. Moss's path to paying off at this price is by being a steady, reliable producer who rides the coattails of Burrow and soaks up the touchdown-scoring opportunities.
Fantasy Football outlook for Chase Brown
Chase Brown played in a very limited capacity last season, garnering just 44 carries and 15 targets across 12 games. But on those touches, Brown proved to have serious burst and playmaking ability. His season was highlighted by a screen pass that he took 54 yards to the endzone, a play where he recorded the second-fastest speed of any ball carrier (per NFL Next Gen Stats) last season.
Brown has a level of explosiveness and overall fantasy ceiling that Moss simply cannot reach. The question is whether he can be reliable enough to be the clear featured back. There are two factors that may hold Brown back: His pass-blocking skills and ability to pick up consistent, positive yardage.
The sample size was small, but Brown was a complete liability in pass protection last year. His PFF pass-blocking grade was an abysmal 26.7. Brown was also completely held out of a game last year (Week 12) because head coach Zac Taylor did not believe he was where he needed to be in terms of pass protection. This is something that could certainly improve in his sophomore season, but it was a glaring red flag last year.
2024 FANTASY AUCTION VALUES (PPR & STANDARD)
Overall | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
Brown also struggled to keep the Bengals on schedule as a rusher. There were 77 different running backs who registered at least 40 carries last season, including Brown. Among those 77, he ranked 76th in success rate for zone concept rushes. He ranked 48th in this metric on rushes that utilized man/gap concepts. This essentially says that he had a hard time consistently producing yardage that helped move the chains.
This theme carried over to the preseason, where had a few instances of trying to create big plays instead of taking the 4-5 yards that were blocked for him.
Much like the numbers from his rookie season, the preseason sample was incredibly small and can't be relied upon heavily. But it's clear that Brown will have to make some adjustments to be more reliable if he is going to break out in the way that many are expecting. Thankfully, Brown has been praised by the coaching staff throughout the offseason, which should lead to him having a longer leash when demonstrating that he has improved heading into year two.
The Verdict: Which Bengals running back should you draft?
The way to win fantasy football leagues is to bet on players with high upside and find the one who truly dominates. Sure, if Moss wins the goal line job, he can finish the year with 15-plus touchdowns on his way to an RB18 season. But Brown is the only back in Cincinnati who offers top-10 upside.
An RB10 (or better) season would likely be a top one-percent outcome for Brown, but this kind of season likely isn't even in Moss's range of outcomes. Brown may have shown some red flags last season, but he has the vote of confidence from the coaching staff and will have every opportunity to show the improvements he has made. It also doesn't hurt that he can be picked up almost two rounds after Moss as the RB37.