3M Open 2023 expert bets: Our in-house PGA pro predicts the champ and top props

3M Open: Pure entertainment

”We want birdies and train wrecks, and we don't want to be the hardest course on TOUR.” - Hollis Cavner

Hollis Cavner was the original Tournament Director of the 3M Open. His philosophy for this transformed PGA TOUR Champions event has helped make this week one of the most entertaining on the TOUR. Who could forget the inaugural event in 2019, when Matt Wolff defeated Bryson DeChambeau in a playoff and Collin Morikawa finished third?

Each edition has not produced a marquee name, but the average winning score of 18 under over four years definitely keeps us all interested. Last year, Scott Piercy was on his way to winning when he ran into a train wreck of his own and finished the final nine with a 41. His triple bogey on 14 sealed his fate and opened the door for Tony Finau to take the trophy. That was Big Ton's first of two in a row in late July last summer.

The week after a major championship over 3,800 miles away takes a toll on the field of 156 entrants. A year ago, Finau’s field was over 100 world ranking points below this year. It seems as if the new FedEx Cup top 70 cutoff has plenty of players very focused on their future. The qualifying number was 125, but with the 2023 changes to the schedule, the TOUR’s officials reduced that number by 55 places.

Forty-two of the 50 players on the points list between 50 and 100 are competing in the 3M. The added pressure of getting into the top 70 adds another level of stress to an already anxiety filled venue. TPC Twin Cities has hosted all four previous 3Ms. The par 71 7,431 yard course plays much shorter because it resides at 1,000 feet above sea level. Elevation amplifies carry and that’s important when you consider all the trouble this train-wreck filled course has to offer.

There are 15 holes where water significantly comes into play and 72 bunkers. Each of the 14 driving holes bends off the tee. Ball strikers excel on this landscape and with good reason. Double bogey awaits around every corner and you must keep the ball in play. Sounds easy for a PGA TOUR player, but I can assure you that on this TPC track, getting off the rails happens quite quickly. .

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3M Open 2023: Odds

3M Open 2023: Solutions that make lives better

Winning the 3M Open comes down to safe scoring. Can you keep the ball in-play for 72-holes and who can convert the most birdie opportunities. Birdie chances develop from great ball striking. Tony Finau won last year by gaining over 16 strokes against the field T2G. He struck the ball so well, he only gained one stroke with the putter and won. That’s definitely not a strategy for long term success at TPC Twin Cities, but it shows how important ball striking can be around this course.

A successful approach game on this course calls for a complementary iron game. Seven of the par 4s are under 450 yards. Yet three par 5s and four lengthy par 3s mean you will need some long iron game too. Proximity to the hole creates scoring opportunities and this course tests the entire bag. This is why the best ball strikers excel at the 3M. Especially those who have recently been rolling it well with the flatstick.

It doesn’t stop at the approach game. You have to shape the ball away from trouble off the tee. Contenders need a successful strategy and length helps. Every winner of the 3M has been quite long. Matt Wolff, Tony Finau, and Cameron Champ! Bring your ball speed and get those bombs in the short grass. This is how our winner will separate himself from the rest for that $1.404 million dollar winner’s check. Score on the short par 4s, destroy the par 5s, and keep the ball out of the penalty areas.

Best bet to win: Cameron Young (+1600 on BetMGM)

Cameron Young has recently come back to life. Adjusting to a new caddie and returning to his previous golf ball has apparently elevated him back to elite status. The young superstar just led the field at Royal Liverpool in strokes gained T2G, off the tee, and on approach!

Although he failed to seal the deal for the second year in a row at the Open Championship, he displayed many reasons why it is his time to win on the PGA TOUR. Following last year’s runner-up finish at St. Andrews, he competed a couple weeks later in Detroit and finished runner-up again. Cameron can focus after a major and compete to win.

His length and accuracy off the tee is a huge advantage. Follow that up with positive gains putting in recent starts and there’s no better favorite in this field. Young winning is not a question of if, rather than when (and that when is this week in Minnesota).

3M Open 2023: H2H battle

Take Patrick Rodgers H2H over Sahith Theegala (-114 on betPARX)

Sahith Theegala entered the 2022 3M Open with a ton of momentum and missed the cut. The Pepperdine graduate can putt with the best of them, but his driver cannot find the fairway. At TPC Twin Cities, the penalty off the tee is magnified. Theegala has missed his last two cuts on TOUR and has not finished inside the top 25 since April. Patrick Rodgers was the runner-up last week in the Barracuda Championship and gained over 13 strokes T2G against the field. These two are headed in different directions and now is the time to take advantage.

3M Open 2023: Best Bet of the Week!

Best bet to finish in the Top 20: Emiliano Grillo (+163 on Bet Rivers)

In four starts at the 3M Open, Emiliano Grillo has finished inside the top 3 on two occasions. Fresh off a sixth place finish at the Open Championship and fifteenth at the Travelers, Grillo is in great recent form. Now he visits a course well suited to his strong ball striking ability.

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