Hero World Challenge betting preview: Tiger Woods is back, but should you bet him?

Hero World Challenge: Island time

Guess what? After 236 days away, Tiger Woods is back and ready to compete in the Hero World Challenge. That means you and I will watch, so we might as well enjoy some betting action alongside the entertainment. Today we will get you ready for this annual golf event and unveil my best bets and top props to help you win some cash this weekend.

The show starts with Woods and his golf course in the Bahamas. Albany was designed by Ernie Els (2010) and sits along the southwest coastline of Nassau Island. The exclusive golf community is the perfect location for a quiet 20 man field of Tiger’s PGA TOUR friends. Thirteen of the top 30 in the OWGR are in the field and ready to take aim at the $4.5 million purse and $1 million first-place check.

Tiger Woods is +260 on FanDuel to finish inside the top 10. Can the GOAT beat half of the field in Nassau? We all feel positive after his upbeat press conference on Tuesday. Woods feels like he will play five events or more in 2024!

The par-72 scorecard displays eight par-4s, five par-3s, and five par-5s. Those 5s are where the scoring starts. In the previous seven HWCs hosted by Albany, the average winning score is 19 under par. The 72-hole no-cut cash grab always seems to reward the best players of the season. Only one winner in the last seven years had pre-tournament odds over +1300.

The weather forecast for this week looks like it will take 20 under or more to capture the trophy. Temperatures are predicted in the low 80s with very little chance of rain. Being a coastal course, wind is the only real deterrent for low scoring. The breeze will blow in the mid-teens all four rounds, with some gusts in the afternoon over 20 mph. The wind direction looks more diabolical than the speed. It will be blowing out of the east-southeast. This means about 15 holes will play with a cross wind.

Woods has never won at Albany. Can he do it after another lengthy recovery? The odds are against him (literally), as he has the longest odds to win in the field at +9000. I wouldn’t count him out to contend for a top 10 after his positive press conference on Tuesday. Whether that happens or not, let’s get four healthy rounds out of him in preparation for 2024.

(For a direct connection to the betting boards, click the links in our Read The Line summary.)

Six of the last seven winners have entered the HWC in great form, placing top-5 in one of their previous three starts prior to the Bahamas. Of the favorites, Scottie Scheffler is the only one who hasn’t played. Collin Morikawa and Max Homa have fall wins and Viktor Hovland finished second at the DP World Tour Championship. Viktor Hovland is the two-time defending champion and betting favorite. Can he be beat? Here’s how to do it…

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Hero World Challenge winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Hero World Challenge: Live Outright Odds

Hero World Challenge: Scoring holes

In the race to 20 under par, the field must take advantage of the five par-5s (3, 6, 9, 11, 15) and the two drivable par-4s (7, 14). Those seven holes will determine our winner. Forget the four par-4s over 470 — make par and move on. Get to the par-5s in two and next to green in one on the short 4s and start making birdies and eagles. Long approaches are the primary key. Attacking the hole from over 250 yards is an elite skill on the PGA TOUR and the main reason why Hovland and Scheffler have finished 1-2 in the last two years.

When those approaches get close from long range (but not on the green), short game plays an important role. Strokes gained around the green is a differentiating skill at Albany because it helps you score, and score quickly. If those cross winds get strong, Els designed the course with smaller than average-sized greens (4,500 sq/ft). The green complexes have run-off areas and plenty of bunkering. One of the hardest skills in golf is chipping “into the grain” on Bermudagrass. You will see more than one chunked chip this week.

The winners at Albany have all been long. Power off the tee is more important than accuracy. Having both helps like Viktor and Scottie, but reaching those par-5s and using mid-irons on the long par-3s is an advantage over four rounds. Bubba Watson, Jon Rahm, Henrik Stenson, and Hideki Matsuyama have all won here. Since the greens aren’t oversized, players do need to convert their birdie chances. Coastal Bermudagrass isn’t the easiest surface to putt on. Experience and wins on Bermuda are definitely preferred.

Fourteen holes have a birdie rate over 15 percent. Those seven scoring holes I spoke about share a 43 percent birdie average. By Thursday, we will see who is in attack mode. I don’t believe everyone who travels to the Bahamas has put in the practice time needed to win against such an elite field. My betting predictions are all hungry. I want players who have an edge and are edgy in December. Most professionals are shutting it down and the field will reflect it. Our best bets are looking to cap off a great year rather than walk away from it.

Hero World Challenge: Career year

Best bet to win: Wyndham Clark (+2500 on bet365)

It can be difficult to find value in a limited field event predicting outright winners. Wyndham Clark has proven he belongs on an elite stage with his performance(s) in 2023. He started the season with five top-10 finishes before winning in Charlotte. Then he built on that signature victory and won the US Open. Clark qualified for the Ryder Cup team and finished third at the Tour Championship. His power fits the par-5 scoring — he's excellent on Bermudagrass with the putter and his edge is around-the-green acumen. What better way to end a career year than with another win?

Hero World Challenge: Four in a row

To finish in the top 10: Justin Thomas (+210 on FanDuel)

After a disappointing 2023, Justin Thomas turned things around midsummer. He has finished 12th or better in his last three starts. His success stems from the resurgence of his putting and approach game. Match that with a world-class short game on a tricky Albany layout and I predict he’ll finish in the top 5 for the fourth year in a row.

Hero World Challenge: Best Bet of the Week!

Take Keegan Bradley over Rickie Fowler H2H (+115 Draftkings)

Following his first win (in a long time) at the Rocket Mortgage, Rickie Fowler has really struggled with his putter. Fowler only played one match at the Ryder Cup and finished sixty-fourth in a seventy-eight man no cut field at the ZOZO. Keegan Bradley finished top 10 at the Tour Championship and top 20 at the ZOZO. Don’t think for a minute, Bradley doesn’t want to beat every USA team member at Albany. Especially Fowler, who probably took Keegan’s place!

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by five-time award-winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 26 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter