John Deere Classic 2023 betting guide: Our PGA expert's best bets to make some green this weekend

They say nothing runs like a Deere. What does that mean when it comes to winning the John Deere Classic? The annual summer trip to the Quad Cities for the PGA TOUR presents great scoring, new names, and dramatic finishes. Six of the last nine winners of the event have been first-time champions on TOUR. For any midwesterner, this tournament is a fifth major, and for the rest of the PGA TOUR it is an opportunity to get a win or valuable FedEx Cup points while the world’s elite travels across the Atlantic.

John Deere took over the title sponsor role in 1999, and the host venue transitioned to TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois for the 2000 edition. The par-71 scorecard is often populated by plenty of birdies. The average winning score at the JDC over the last decade is 21 under par. For the third week in a row, we will likely have a 20-plus under par winner. Stretching 7,289 yards, length is not the biggest defense of TPC Deere Run.

The weather report has a forecast for scoring. Precipitation fell on Sunday and Monday. More is expected on Wednesday, Saturday, and Sunday. The rain should soften the green surfaces to make them extra receptive. With temperatures in the high 70’s and little wind, each player in the 156-man field will have ample opportunity to convert a ton of birdie chances.

The top 65 and ties will play the weekend for a $7.4 million dollar purse. With just five events left on the PGA TOUR schedule prior to the FedEx Cup playoffs, many players are making a run at the top 70. Last year, 125 players made the playoff cut. That number has been reduced to 70. When the world’s finest don’t show up, middle-tier players must take advantage and gain as many points as possible. The playoff points tournament inside the JDC is just another reason why there’s so much to play for each week.

If you consider all of the questions surrounding the future of the TOUR, we will see B-listers vying for A-list status. Incredible drama awaits — just one more reason why nothing else runs like Deere!

John Deere Classic 2023: Live Outright Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

John Deere Classic 2023: A deeper dive into Deere Run

TPC Deere Run tests your ability to keep the ball in play. Wide fairways off the tee reduce quickly in size when you consider each of the driving holes bend in one direction or the other. Players are significantly rewarded off the tee for keeping it between the trees. The top contenders who make it through the 36-hole cut and play the weekend will favor driving accuracy over distance. Driving accuracy is nine percent greater than the TOUR average on this course.

Approach shots are challenged by a number of picturesque elevation changes. Green complexes sit above and below the player. Ball-striking becomes essential when you are constantly checking the height and angle of your iron shots. Thankfully, 41 percent of approach shots are struck from 150 yards or less. GIR rates are above the PGA TOUR average, telling us your iron game needs to be sharp. Those players who have competed for the last two weeks have certainly been practicing that exact approach skill set.

Water comes into play on three holes. The most significant penalty area sits adjacent left to the 18th green. The 476-yard par-4 is the ultimate accuracy test for the week. Play it safe to the right of the green and you’ll end up in one of the 76 bunkers that cover the course. More so than Detroit Golf Club and TPC River Highlands, TPC Deere Run calls for timely around-the-green acumen.

The last five JDC winners have gained an average of seven strokes (6.8) against the field with the flat-stick. The path to victory takes place when you convert on these putting surfaces. Good putters can score here. Ryder Cup Captains Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson have four wins together at TPC Deere Run. Their skill sets alone set the tone for what to expect from a player’s perspective.

John Deere Classic 2023: Go green at the Deere

JT Poston hit 60 of 72 greens in regulation (83%) en route to winning the 2022 John Deere Classic. That blueprint to victory is how you contend at TPC Deere Run. Interestingly enough, that same strategy would have served the players well at the Travelers Championship two weeks ago and last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Just like JT, Keegan hit 83 percent of the GIRs at TPC River Highlands, and Rickie was two better with an 85 percent success rate in Detroit.

So, who are the GIR leaders in the field for the 2023 John Deere Classic?

The guys who lead in GIRs gained are: Alex Smalley, Emiliano Grillo, Matthew NeSmith, Ryan Palmer, and Lucas Glover. By securing more greens than the field average, you create more birdie opportunities.

Another way to determine who has the best chance to see an 80-plus percent GIR rate is to look at the SG:APP leaders. Russell Henley, Mark Hubbard, Emiliano Grillo, Alex Smalley, and Adam Schenk lead that category.

As we start to see some similar names pop up, who converts the most GIR chances? Birdie or better percentage (BoB%) is a key analytic for determining who can reach the mid-20s in scoring. At TPC Deere Run, Eric Cole, Emiliano Grillo, Scott Piercy, Adam Schenk, and Dylan Wu are the best in the field.

Quite quickly, we see a pattern developing. If you want to win at the John Deere Classic, you definitely need to go green!

John Deere Classic 2023: Best Bets

Best bet to win: Eric Cole (+3300)

Cole has over 50 professional mini tour wins. Just two weeks ago following a top-25 finish at the Travelers, Cole drove eight hours to Pittsburgh and played in the Frank B Fuhrer Jr Invitational. He won the $20,000 first place prize and donated it to charity. Cole’s putter can help him win on any course, and his approach game has been hot lately. He has eight top-25 finishes in 18 starts this year. What better place for a first-time winner like Cole than another birdie-fest on the summer schedule of the PGA TOUR?

Best bet to finish in the Top 20: Adam Schenk (+175)

Adam Schenk's name kept popping up in the preview above with good reason. His iron game has been fantastic this year. Throw in some great course history and he will contend. Schenk has finished in the top 6 twice in four starts at TPC Deere Run.

Best bet to finish in the Top 40: Doug Ghim (+100)

In his last four starts, Ghim has finished 33rd at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, 15th at the Travelers Championship, 12th at the RBC Canadian Open, and 19th at the Byron Nelson Classic. In that stretch, his approach and off-the-tee play have been great — certainly good enough to get inside the top 40 at TPC Deere Run.

BONUS bet to finish in the Top 10 at the US Women’s Open: Rose Zhang (+162)

Rose Zhang is the betting favorite at the 78th US Women’s Open. The amazing amateur has taken the LPGA by storm, winning her first professional event. Pebble Beach is the venue for this year’s national championship. Zhang holds the course record (63) which she recorded while playing her college golf at nearby Stanford University. Familiarity always breeds success in major championships, and she has plenty.

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the John Deere Classic and US Women’s Open winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 16 outright wins in the last year and covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.