Charles Schwab Classic 2023 betting preview: Our PGA expert goes for two wins in a row after cashing at the PGA Championship

Now that the smoke has cleared from the 2023 PGA Championship, we move right to the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge at the Colonial Country Club in Forth Worth, Texas. As always, we will discuss odds, the tournament itself, course and weather conditions, and our best bets. And as always, we won't just highlight our betting picks — we will discuss why we arrived at them and how our betting strategy evolves.

We rallied in Rochester, NY at the PGA on Sunday, tailing Brooks Koepka all the way to the winner’s circle. His +2200 payday was our fifth outright win at Read The Line. Not every outright pick in our newsletter makes the Best Bets below, so make sure you click on the Read the Line link and subscribe to our complete weekly preview.

After a terrible start on Thursday, Tyrell Hatton cashed as well in the top 20 and just added more cash to our “major” haul. Let’s back up Brooks with another win this week in Texas and break down the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Charles Schwab Challenge: Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings and DraftKings Nation

Charles Schwab Challenge: Welcome to warmer temperatures

Colonial Country Club will be hosting the 77th edition of the Charles Schwab Challenge. Starting in 1946, this venue is the longest-standing PGA TOUR course. A par-70 on the scorecard, the course measures 7,209 yards. Famous for Ben Hogan and his Fort Worth roots, this course rewards great ball striking and premium game planning.

Nine of the 12 par-4s are under 450 yards. The course calls for a ton of scoring irons from the fairway. Average driving distance at Colonial is five yards under the TOUR average (283 yards). The competitors look for a position off the tee rather than just swinging away. The field has 24 of the top 50 in the OWGR. As they prepare on the putting green, history reveals that Colonial challenges us on the short ones. The TOUR average for putts made under 5 feet is 42.5 percent — at Colonial it is 33.9 percent.

Those short ones will be rolling, as it is dry and warm in Dallas. From frost delays to fast and firm, temperatures are expected in the mid-80s with light winds. There’s a 40 percent chance of rain on Thursday morning to start Round 1. The field of 120 players will be reduced to the top 65 and ties for the weekend. Those who make it will be competing for $8.7 million dollars and $1.566 million for first place.

Favorites have fared well at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Six of the last 10 winners have held pre-tournament odds under +3500. Considering the average winning score over the last decade is 13 under par, you can quickly discern why Colonial is one of the top 10 toughest on the PGA TOUR even though it is the fourth shortest!

Charles Schwab Challenge: An approach to winning

Approach play is the strongest indicator for success at Colonial Country Club. Players can make birdies at this Perry Maxwell design. Our last ten champions have averaged nearly six strokes gained against the field with their irons. Better ball strikers tend to distance themselves from the field because they create the most makeable birdie putts.

Proximity to the hole matters as these greens average 5,000 sq/ft in size. The course is also covered in 84 bunkers and there’s six holes where water comes into play. Firm conditions will cause these guys to really control their golf ball. Another significant part of the approach challenge comes from the par 3s. This set of four holes ranks in the top 10 toughest on TOUR. All of them are 190 yards and longer.

Getting the ball in play off the tee is key. Much like Pebble Beach, Harbour Town, or some of the other positional PGA TOUR courses, you must keep it between the trees. Then you can attack with your scoring clubs. Scottie Scheffler (+400) comes in as the betting favorite. He’s ranked first in the field T2G and just finished runner-up in the PGA Championship. Can he continue to make his shorts putts? If he does, he’ll be tough to beat in Texas.

Should Scottie slip and look ahead to Memorial or the US Open, there are a number of great putter and iron players who can take the title. That’s the combination we are looking for. Great ball strikers who have been solid strokers on the green. I took a deep dive looking at scoring on short par 4s, and par 4s in general as well. I didn’t see any strong trends for short game play and therefore didn’t consider it as a key indicator for success.

Jordan Spieth is the strokes gained leader over his career at Colonial because he is a world class wedge player. I’m not sure Spieth is healthy from what I saw last week walking around at Oak Hill. Therefore, I’ll be looking elsewhere for this week’s best bets.

Charles Schwab Challenge: Best Bets

Best bet to win: Denny McCarthy (+6000 on DraftKings)

When you are looking to make a bunch of 10-15’ birdie putts, Denny McCarthy is the man to call. Over his last two starts at Quail Hollow and Oak Hill he is averaging 6.45 strokes gained against the field on the greens. McCarthy is also gaining positively off the tee and on approach in his last five starts. This is a dangerous combo and one I believe we can take advantage of. Ranked third in the field for par 4 scoring, Denny will create plenty of chances and therefore contend on Sunday.

Best bet to finish in the Top 20: Tommy Fleetwood (+145 on Bet365)

Tommy Fleetwood loves firm and fast layouts. With his shallow angle of attack, his iron play sets him apart from the field under these conditions. Over his last five starts he’s gained an average of 7.9 strokes against the field total. Ranked third in the field for bogey avoidance he’ll keep his rounds going and finish near the top of the leaderboard.

Best bet to finish in the Top 40: Matt NeSmith (+125 on DraftKings)

Back in the fall, Matt NeSmith had three straight top 10 finishes. He fell off over the winter, but his iron game has come back. In his last three starts, he has gained an average of 2.4 strokes on approach and hasn’t finished outside the top 35. That includes a 23rd place finish in the PGA. Positive with his putter in the last two starts, he’s trending toward the top of the leaderboard.

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the PGA Championship winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by five-time award-winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 15 outright wins in the last year and covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.