Farmers Insurance Open expert picks and predictions with our PGA pro's best bets at Torrey Pines

In this betting preview:

• Top trends from Farmers Insurance Open past winners
• Expert picks and predictions
• Updated odds to win
• Torrey Pines South vs. North course breakdown

We will stay in beautiful southern California for another week and play the Farmers Insurance Open on the famed North and South courses at Torrey Pines. Quite possibly the best public golf facility in the country, this 36-hole facility sits on the cliffs overlooking the Pacific Ocean. Players will compete once on the North and once on the South over the first two rounds. Those who make the 36-hole cut will compete on the South Course for the entire weekend.

California has been under siege from the weather and waves this winter. Torrey sits high above the water, but nonetheless will receive some rain early in the week. By the time we start Wednesday, over an inch will soak the course. The rest of the week looks pretty perfect, but adding some softness to these fairways will only make a long course… well, longer.

Temperatures will be seasonal for San Diego. The mornings will start in the mid-50's and then rise into the high-60s and low-70s by Sunday. Wind looks very calm for the coast. On most days, the breeze will fall in the single-digits. The biggest challenge will be when it moves from southwest in Round 1 to northeast by Round 4.

What a week at the AMEX! JT Poston contends and comes up short, Sungjae Im gives us three great days, and Eric Cole bogeys(!) the last hole to miss the top 20 by one stroke. Alas, we move on to Torrey. For full coverage of the Farmers, subscribe to the Read The Line newsletter (it’s free!) and follow on Twitter!

The Farmers Insurance Open has always captured a solid field. The two courses, dates on the calendar, Tiger's annual start to the season all carried the competition. The past two years have been different. Farmers doesn't carry a "signature" title, and Tiger no longer makes the Torrey trip. Some quick nuggets on this week's field:

• Twelve of the top 30 in the OWGR are in San Diego this weekend.
• There's a $9 million purse and $1.62 million for first place.
• Max Homa is your defending champ — he sits at +1000, one of the favorites on the betting boards.

Here's a closer look into some of our best bets including top-20 finishers, head-to-head props and our pick to win. 

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Farmers Insurance Open winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Farmers Insurance Open expert picks and predictions

 Although all winners at the Farmers are great ball-strikers, they aren't always high on the odds board. In fact, the average winner's odds over the past 10 years is +5600 (56-1).

(Side note: Torrey was one of my favorite outright wins, courtesy of a +9000 (90-1) win with Luke List in 2022!)

The field of 156 competitors will be cut to the top 65 (and ties) for the weekend. Nestled between two Pro-Ams on the PGA TOUR schedule, I'm excited to see some challenging golf. For three rounds, they will play a beast of a course. The South stretches 7,700+ yards and will be playing long again this year. It's probably not too hard for us to figure out what it will take to contend as a skill set. 

The last 10 winners of the Farmers Insurance Open gained an average of 5.7 strokes against the field from tee to green (SG:T2G). Torrey Pines is a ball-striker's paradise. Look at your last two winners — Luke List and Max Homa — two of the best long iron and drivers of the golf ball on TOUR. This week, our research begins and ends with the guys who can flat out flush it!

• The first challenge comes off the tee at Torrey. Almost every hole either bends or has a fairway bunker. In fact, 26 holes (of 28) present at least one of those attention-grabbers and 21 of them have both. Seven of the last 10 winners gained an average of 1.2 strokes off the tee when they won.
• With 19 of 36 holes stretching over 450 yards in length, power is a huge attribute on this beast.
• Don't discount accuracy off the tee as well. Players tend to hit about 53 percent of the fairways (South Course) which is well below the PGA TOUR average of 63 percent.
• Seven of the eight par-3s measure over 200 yards. On the South Course, 47 percent of the approach shots are over 175 yards. That's seven percent more than the TOUR average. Bring your long iron game to Torrey. Past champions include Jason Day, Jon Rahm, Justin Rose and Tiger Woods; seven times — eight if you count the broken-leg US Open!
• Gaining on approach gives you the best chance to contend. The last five winners gained an average of five strokes against the field. Not many flip wedges into these greens and the par-5s force you to hit approach shots as well with two of them measuring over 615 yards.
• With so many long approach shots, players only hit 62 percent of their GIRs and that falls five percent below the TOUR average.
• Missing greens? That means around-the-green play is significant. Eight of the last 10 winners gained about a stroke with their short game en route to victory.
• Approach is important, sure, but all 10 of the past 10 winners gained on the greens an average of 3.6 strokes! Putting on Poa annua for three days can be maddening. Each of our outright predictions has demonstrated success on this surface.

Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Homa, and Collin Morikawa are the favorites, but 2024 has given us three surprise winners so far. Chris Kirk, Grayson Murray, and amateur Nick Dunlap have all held pre-tournament odds over +20000 (200-1)! The prototype player for Torrey is Xander or Collin, and the difficulty of Torrey’s test will bring the TOUR back to reality.

Farmers Insurance Open best bet to win: Ludvig Åberg (+2200 on BetMGM)

The best driver on the PGA TOUR not named Rory McIlroy is Ludvig Åberg. The Swedish sensation is really long and accurate. Outside of major championship courses, Torrey Pines and Bay Hill really put a premium on driving. Åberg is a perfect fit for the South Course. I know the ball-striking is impressive, but he can also score, ranked fourth in the field BoB%. Aberg's long-iron play is what should push him over the edge, as he's ranked in the top five for all approaches over 175 yards.

Farmers Insurance Open best bet to finish top 20: Sahith Theegala (+160)

Sahith Theegala has a serious west-coast reputation. The former college player of the year who competed at Pepperdine won the Fortinet in Napa and finished top 25 in his first two starts at Torrey Pines. Last year it was a fourth place result. Fresh off his runner-up in Hawaii, watch him take the momentum right into his home state.

Farmers Insurance Open best prop bet of the week: Theegala over Zalatoris (-138 on Bet365)

Injuries can be a funny thing. Will Zalatoris is making a comeback from back surgery. His starts at the Hero, Sony, and AMEX were well below his standards of ball striking. Now he heads to one of the most difficult (and longest) courses on TOUR. Sahith Theegala is second in average strokes gained at Torrey Pines and an outright pick.

Farmers Insurance Open odds to win

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Farmers Insurance course: Torrey Pines South and North differences

The courses at Torrey are visually stunning. The stark contrast between the elevated architecture resting cliffside against the beautiful blue Pacific Ocean creates a wonderful palate. Unfortunately, the holes aren't nearly as interesting as the landscape. Rees Jones completed his last renovation in 2019. What's left of this William Bell father-son original is big, brutal and (if I'm honest) boring.

South Course (three rounds)

• Par 72 measuring 7,765 yards on the scorecard
• Average green size is approximately 5,000 sq/ft.
• Greens are Poa annua grass and the course is covered in 82 bunkers
• Thirteen of 14 tee shots face a bunker, and 12 of those holes have some movement off the tee

North Course (one round)

• Par 72 measuring 507 yards less than its counterpart at 7,258
• Greens are bent grass, and a little bigger at 6,000 sq/ft on average
• Par-3's on the North are all over 200 yards
• Forty-two bunkers and no water penalty areas
• Again, 12 holes bend off the tee, and 12 of 14 tee shots face a bunker

Much like the contrast between course and sea, this week will not be the birdie-fest we just saw in Palm Springs.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by five-time award-winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 26 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter