In this betting preview:
- Tournament format breakdown
- Expert picks and predictions
- BetMGM odds to win
- Betting trends from past winners
- Course overview
DUBLIN, OH — Signature event No. 7 comes racing toward us the week prior to the U.S. Open. In many ways, I feel bad for the Memorial Tournament, presented by Workday. This event has been a cornerstone of the PGA TOUR for 50 years. From Roger Maltbie in the first edition to playoff winner Viktor Hovland a year ago, this event truly is signature. Jack Nicklaus designed Muirfield Village Golf Club in 1974. His home course in Ohio, the layout is a tribute to two of his favorite courses in the world; Muirfield and Augusta National.
Seventy-three players are in attendance, ready to compete for $20 million and another elite title. Nine of the top 10 in the OWGR have entered, and getting ready for a stern test. The par-72 scorecard measuring 7,596 yards is annually one of the five toughest on TOUR. Many of Jack’s designs aren’t going to lead the course rating charts, but this one is his masterpiece. Take all the traditional elements of Valhalla three weeks ago and you begin to sense the setting in Dublin, Ohio.
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The Memorial Tournament expert picks and predictions
Best bet to win: Collin Morikawa (+1400 on FanDuel)
Over his past five starts, Morikawa has finished third (Masters), ninth, 16th, fourth (PGA), and fourth. Fourth at Valhalla certainly sticks out, as it's a Nicklaus design and course comp. He has won at MVGC (Workday 2020), and was in contention last year until he withdrew with back spasms on Sunday.
A big part of this five-event run has to do with gaining +2.5 strokes (on average) around the green. The elite approach player now has a short game to complement that accurate iron game. Watch him flight his classic fade right down Jack’s fairways on his way to that traditional handshake on Sunday afternoon.
Best head-to-head bet: Russell Henley over Jordan Spieth (-130 on BetMGM)
Spieth’s approach play has gotten to the point where it is affecting other aspects of his game. The two-time major winner has one top 20 since February. Losing an average of 1.5 strokes per start on approach, Spieth has also fallen back on the field with his flatstick in three of his last fours starts.
Meanwhile, Henley quietly has three top-12 results over his past five starts. Gaining an average of six strokes total on the field over those past five events, the odds reflect how this matchup is going to go. Jump in before the odds shift and the value diminishes.
*BET OF THE WEEK*
Lee Hodges to finish top 30 (+160 on DraftKings)
In his rookie Memorial start, Hodges finished 12th. Coincidentally, Hodges also finished 12th at Valhalla last month in the PGA Championship. Fact is, I don’t believe in coincidences. Jack Nicklaus designed both courses and Lee likes each of them.
Hodges' elite iron game and putter have helped him to back-to-back 12th-place finishes because of his ability to improve the driver and add some short-game savvy. Trending off three straight top 25s, take Lee to land another solid start on his second trip to The Memorial.
The Memorial Tournament live odds to win
Odds (shorter than +10000) courtesy of BetMGM.
| Golfer | Odds |
| Scottie Scheffler | +400 |
| Xander Schauffele | +900 |
| Rory McIlroy | +1000 |
| Collin Morikawa | +1400 |
| Viktor Hovland | +1600 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +2200 |
| Justin Thomas | +2800 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +2800 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +4000 |
| Russell Henley | +4000 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +4000 |
| Max Homa | +4500 |
| Sahith Theegala | +4500 |
| Sam Burns | +4500 |
| Byeong Hun An | +5000 |
| Corey Conners | +5000 |
| Jordan Spieth | +5000 |
| Keegan Bradley | +5000 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +5000 |
| Si Woo Kim | +5000 |
| Sungjae Im | +5000 |
| Tom Kim | +5000 |
| Tony Finau | +5000 |
| Wyndham Clark | +5000 |
| Alex Noren | +5500 |
| Shane Lowry | +5500 |
| Jason Day | +6000 |
| Billy Horschel | +6600 |
| Cameron Young | +6600 |
| Denny McCarthy | +6600 |
| Sepp Straka | +6600 |
| Will Zalatoris | +6600 |
| Brian Harman | +6600 |
| Christian Bezuidenhout | +8000 |
| Harris English | +8000 |
| Tom Hoge | +8000 |
| J.T. Poston | +9000 |
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The Memorial Tournament: Conditions, winning trends
Jack Nicklaus was one of the most cerebral players to have ever competed on the PGA TOUR. To start handicapping the skills needed to win the Memorial, you must begin with those who can think their way around a golf course. Certainly, Scheffler is the best. We saw what he has done at Augusta National. There are a couple other great game planners who can design a successful strategy for this test. When building that plan, one of the most important facets is determining where to play off the tee. Much like Augusta National, angles play a huge part in the layout.
A plethora of approach shots are played from long range (175+ yards). Great mid/long iron guys can separate here. The recent leaderboards succinctly display this as the most common theme amongst the Sunday contenders and eventual champions. The higher you can launch it, the better. MVGC has so many shallow-hole locations. The greens are small and get even smaller around the perimeter. Tucking pins on small outcroppings make it almost impossible to land approaches unless they fall straight down. Any model made this week would weigh approach play at the very top.
Second to the iron game is short game, with 50 bunkers surround these greens. And even though the long rough only promotes one play to recover, you still have to be able to pull it off. Hideki Matsuyama, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Jordan Spieth have scored well here due to their ability to save strokes from around the green. To compound the scrambling value, this collection of par 5s was designed to be three-shot holes. Many pros will hit them (or attempt to hit them) in two, but in most cases that third shot will approach from close range. Nicklaus was one of the greatest pitchers in the game, and you better believe his course tests your ability to do the same.
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Don’t spend a great deal of time on putting. Much like ANGC, you don’t have to be a great putter to win here. Will it help? Yes, it always helps, but many past champions are far from fabulous with a flatstick. Over the past five years, winners have gained an equal amount OTT and with the putter. Both values are less than approach (first) and ARG (second). Can being a great putter help you win? McCarthy has proven so — but looking back through the leaderboards post-renovation, I strongly prefer the high launch target ball-striking approach.
Muirfield Village boasts some beefy par 4s. The last 10 winners have gained nearly nine strokes (on average) versus the field on the par 4s. Even though seven of the 10 measure over 450 yards, par-5 scoring separates the field. MVGC’s par 5s are some of the most difficult on TOUR. They force reluctant decision-making and possess incredible green complexes. Much like ANGC, television does not do these four holes any justice. They just cannot be represented on a flat screen. All measuring between 550-600 yards, we can really determine the best players in that category. Since scoring is so difficult on the 3s and long 4s, this area of analysis can be incredibly helpful in making final decisions for our outright card.
I always marvel at the comp courses we find when it comes to great venues these guys compete on year after year. Sure, Valhalla makes sense, but that happens once a decade. The Masters helps too, but how about a couple more? I’m using putting skill on the Nicklaus Tournament course during the American Express and the PLAYERS. Rahm, Hideki, Kuchar, etc. all excel on Dye’s design in Ponte Vedra Beach and MVGC. Well, here’s a fun one that's quite corollary. TPC Scottsdale leaderboards are very comparable to the Memorial. Scottie, Cantlay, Rahm, Xander, Rickie, Hideki, and Spieth all have impressive records in both places. Know who finished top 10 there this year, because it will help.
Over the last five years, the winners have averaged 20 sub-par scores en route to winning. Hovland had 19 (!) and won at seven under par in a playoff. Never forget bogey avoidance and scrambling skill on venues like these. MVGC is a major championship course. Although it won’t look anything like Pinehurst #2 next week, don’t be surprised when the leaderboards do.
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The Memorial Tournament: Hamilton Golf Club & Country Club course description
This course went through a massive renovation in 2020. All of the greens were resurfaced, and many holes were altered to adjust for the modern player. Since Patrick Cantlay’s 19 under total in 2019, we have seen a serious scoring change. Hovland won last year at seven under par, and I expect the winning score to rest at 12 under come Sunday afternoon. I’m giving the guys a decent opportunity to score because of the course conditions coming into the Memorial.
May is a rainy month in Ohio. Columbus has witnessed a little over an inch in the past two weeks and it is going to rain again today (Wednesday). During the renovation, Nicklaus spared no expense and installed sub-air systems under the greens. MVGC can control the texture of the putting surfaces, but I believe the fairways and rough will be wet for Thursday and Friday. Soft landing conditions help these guys keep it in the short grass. We saw that firsthand last month at the PGA Championship.
The remainder of the week looks better, and temperatures are forecasted in the high 70s. The wind will contribute to some confusion, but overall this edition will be scoreable. At 7,500+ yards, MVGC is the fifth-longest course these guys have seen in 2024. A true ball-striking test, the greens are only 5,000 sq/ft (on average). Long-iron approaches to small targets promote an incredible need for serious short-game technique. Quite honestly, that might be Muirfield Village’s signature skill.
These green complexes are surrounded by thick northern rough, deep bunkers, and fronted by steep shaven slopes of short grass. Weekly venues on the PGA TOUR rarely test the field from 50 yards and in. MVGC really forces these guys to get it done around the greens. Although the lies will be different next week at Pinehurst #2, this is still an excellent short-game preview for the third major championship.
We have another big three at the top of the betting board. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Xander Schauffele have all started the week with shorter than +1000 odds. We won’t touch any of them since we prefer finding better value. Should Scottie win by five? Yes. Scheffler gained 20 strokes T2G last year and finished third. He lost nine strokes putting! That being said, Xander just won the PGA Championship on a very similar Nicklaus comp course, and Rory has won two of his last four starts.
I love covering this event, as the Nicklaus leadership loves to pull out all the stops and the city of Dublin supports him. Not to mention, the Memorial almost always gives us free golf. Viktor’s win over Denny McCarthy was the seventh playoff in the last 10 years! So, buckle up and enjoy the show, because this is the start of the best two weeks we will see back-to-back all season.
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