The Mizuho Americas Open expert picks and predictions: Our PGA Pro's best bets for 2024 LPGA golf tournament

In this betting preview:

• Tournament format breakdown
• Expert picks and predictions
• BetMGM odds to win
• Betting trends from past winners
• Course overview

Rose Zhang loves a big stage. The collegiate standout and Augusta National Women’s Amateur winner won the Mizuho Americas Open in her first ever LPGA professional start. Fast forward twelve months and she has two chances to go back-to-back. Not only is she defending her title from a year ago, but she is also trying to win in successive weeks. Nelly may have stolen the show at the Met Gala, but Zhang’s late Sunday birdie barrage at the Cognizant Founders Cup confidently displayed one true fact. There’s nothing like a rose in full bloom on Mother’s Day!

For the second year, Liberty National Golf Club is our host for the Mizuho. No stranger to championship golf, several FedEx Cup playoff events have been contested here and the 2017 Presidents’ Cup. This amazing golfing landscape is one of a kind. Imagine hitting an approach with Manhattan in the background. You have to see it in order to appreciate the unbelievable contrast in scenery. A par 72 scorecard (6,675 yards) has your traditional setup. Four par 3s and 5s, woven in-between 10 par 4s.

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Mizuho Americas Open expert picks and predictions

Best bet to win: Jin Young Ko (+2200 on FanDuel)

Jin Young Ko has two wins in New Jersey in the last three years. Alongside those two trophies are a handful of top 5s. Ko is extremely accurate and that's why she fits these target specific layouts so well. Jin Young is ranked second in the field for strokes gained approach as well. Ko also kills it in GIRs, scrambling, around the green play, and with the putter. Her game is a perfect fit for Liberty National and another title in the Garden State.

Best longshot to win: Gabriela Ruffels (+6500 on FanDuel)

As a rookie, Gabriela Ruffels has four top 15 results in eight starts.Can she handle New Jersey layouts? Ruffels just finished third at UMCC on Sunday. Gabriela is super creative around the greens and not just saving par, but also for scoring on the par 5s and short par 4s. She's ranked top 30 in this field for T2G and putting. Impressive combination considering each course she plays it is her first time competing there on tour. One more edge, Ruffels moves it off the tee and hits over 75% of her fairways. Accuracy counts in front of Miss Liberty and Gabriela can get it done.

Best Bet of the week: Rose Zhang to finish top 10 (+190 on BetMGM)

Rose Zhang won the Mizuho last year and won last week at the Cognizant Founders Cup. Her game matches these northeast style courses because she is ranked fourth on the LPGA for strokes gained T2G. We all saw the hot putter on Sunday, so getting 10 places against a field she just beat is my best bet of the week!

Mizuho Americas Open live odds to win

Odds shorter than +3000 courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Mizuho Americas Open: Conditions, winning trends

Accuracy counts on every shot around this treacherous track. Total control tee to green (T2G) is the first filter I’m looking at. Nelly Korda is back to lead the betting board and Zhang sits next in line. It’s no coincidence they both are also near the top of the T2G rankings for our field. The season of star winners continued in nearby Clifton. LNGC will be very similar to Upper Montclair Country Club as a well-rounded ball striking contest. The fairways aren't framed by as many trees. Instead, the women will see amber waves of fescue and penalty areas. Each shot is really tested here. Our card covers the best at simply keeping the ball in play.

I have played LNGC many times and I can share with you the accuracy test doesn’t end after the tee shot. It continues by challenging every iron in your bag. To separate from the field, players must accrue as many GIRs as possible. Zhang tied Kupcho at nine under, and they did their best to avoid as many bogeys as possible. Scrambling skill has my attention after T2G. In the top 10 a year ago, those twelve women averaged 16.6 sub-par scores for 72-holes. The winning score was nine. This is a hard golf course even when you are showing solid form. It sounds redundant to describe, but the reality is making bogey (and double bogey) can happen really quick. Keeping your round momentum going is vital.

Scoring at LNGC also relies on some serious scrambling skill. Four par 5s and a couple of shorter par 4s will allow the ladies to grab a couple of sub-par scores if they are good with a wedge. Those women who can capitalize on the par 5s jumped ahead of the competition a year ago. I looked at the keys to winning by analyzing the top 10 from that leaderboard. Rose Zhang finished second in par 5 scoring for the week. Approach from a little further out also drives success. That same top 10 gained an average of 3 strokes on the green with their iron game. These greens are all surrounded by danger. Players with proximity have an advantage.

Twelve ladies finished top 10 last year (ties). The largest strokes gained category was putting. Just slightly ahead of approach, these greens are tricky. They are difficult to read and even tougher to make putts on. Having played on them multiple times, I can confirm the challenge. Much like the PGA TOUR, many of the elite ball strikers aren't the best putters. Our outrights are definitely swayed toward putting prowess. Those twelve women from a year ago gained over three strokes (on average) on the greens.

With a single digit winning score, we succinctly see this as a tough test. A week ago, two women scored in the 20s! Transitioning to a much different test will be critical. The faster you can focus on the new task, the bigger you advantage will be. I'm also measuring round by round stats. Due to the event format, 24 usual LPGA spots are being used by AJGA all-stars. The cutline has been significantly reduced. Slow starters need not apply this week. Enjoy your weekend in NYC if you have a mediocre round on Thursday or Friday. Not every elite player is a fast first rounder. I'm staying away from those ladies for our card.

Ultimately as much accuracy as you can muster is the primary focus. Get to the green and putt better than your playing partners. Accomplish those two goals and you'll be contending come Sunday. Just like these ladies on our outright betting card.

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Mizuho Americas Open: Liberty National Golf Club course description

The only thing more unique than the setting of this second-year event is the format. The field of 120 LPGA players will be joined by 24 elite players from the America Junior Golf Association (AJGA). The young women will compete alongside nine of top 10 in the Rolex World rankings. Only the top 50 and ties make the weekend, so this is one of the toughest cut lines to navigate on tour. I’m keeping an eye on the woman who are in great form and tend to start quickly. Our weekend warriors will be playing for $3 million, and $450,000 for first place.

Even though this is only the second year for the LPGA at LNGC, they just wrapped another New Jersey event nearby. Combine that with four New Jersey events in 2023 and we have a solid amount of research to determine who plays well on this agronomy (grass types) and designs. All of the targets are surrounded with trouble. The average green size is 4,650 sq/ft. The weather looks similar to last year. Cooler spring temperatures are always a factor on the water in the northeast. LNGC is located on the Hudson River. The forecast calls for some wet weather as well.

Don’t get distracted by the sights, this is not a tourist trip. LNGC is total target golf. The course has 98 bunkers and 13 holes where water comes into play. The par 4 fifth hole is a microcosm for what the ladies will face. The 400-yard par 4 fairway travels along a pond down the left-hand side and out of bounds down the right. Should you secure the fairway, you face a two-tiered green with a bunker on the right and a creek just left. Zhang won in a playoff over Jennifer Kupcho last year at nine under par. Based upon the forecast and course conditions I expect a similar score; maybe just slightly lower.

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