Olympics golf expert picks and predictions with our PGA Pro’s best bets for the 2024 tournament in Paris

In this betting preview:

• Tournament format breakdown
• Expert picks and predictions
• BetMGM odds to win
• Betting trends from past winners
• Course overview

With one tournament to go before the Top 70 FedEx Cup points cutoff, the PGA TOUR takes a one-week break for the Olympic Games. Staged in Paris, France, we return to the site of the 2018 Ryder Cup matches: Le Golf National. Set in the Parisian countryside near Versailles, this target-oriented track is about to test 60 of the world's best male golfers for the opportunity to seize Olympic Gold. Rio in 2016 marked the first men's Olympic golf competition. Justin Rose took home the gold. Xander Schauffele was second to grab the gold medal in Japan (2021).

Recapping last week's picks: Winner, winner

Congratulations to Jhonny Vegas for handling his nerves down the stretch at the 3M Open. The Venezuelan ball-striking machine ranked seventh in putting at TPC Twin Cities to finish at 17 under par. Vegas captured his fourth career win and our sixth outright of the season!

New Jersey's Max Greyserman fired a 63 and forced Johnny to make birdie on 18 for the win. Max's second shot on the closing hole was one the best approaches we have seen all year under Sunday pressure on TOUR. I remember when Greyserman won the NJ State Open at 19 years old. I thought "this kid is for real" at the time, and he surely has shown it this season.

The Vegas win highlights our second longshot win of the season. At 80-1, only Taylor Pendrith at 100-1 (CJ CUP Byron Nelson) gave us a greater return. Let's ride that momentum and move right into our 2024 men's Olympic golf preview and predictions!

This preview is just that: a preview. For a complete list of my betting predictions covering men’s Olympic golf, finishing positions, and H2H matchups,please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Men's Olympic golf: Expert picks and predictions

Best bet to win: Jon Rahm (+1200 on BetMGM)

Royal Troon was a mess for every star player in the Thursday AM through Friday PM tee-time wave, except for Jon Rahm. The Spanish superstar played his way into contention at the Open Championship through brutal weather conditions. Although he didn’t win, that performance propelled him into winning LIV Golf London the very next week.

What was once a lost season can now be defined by a gold-medal performance over Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele at Le Golf National. Rahm has two top 10s in competition on the former Ryder Cup layout in the Open de France. His elite driving and world-class iron play complement each other perfectly on this precision design. It’s time for the bull to push his way back into the “best player” conversation.

Best bet to place: Matteo Manassero to finish Top 20 (+210 on Caesars)

Since his win in March, Manassero has six top-25 results in 11 starts. Manassero’s recent return to form has him contending week after week. He finished T15 at the Scottish and T31 at The Open.

An excellent ball striker, Matteo's game fits Le Golf National. He's ranked ninth in strokes gained total for players in the field with 10 or more tournament rounds on the Albatross course. Take his experience, recent run, and the 20 places to return a nice reward.

Best head-to-head bet: Alex Noren over Joaquin Niemann H2H (+110 on DraftKings)

What happens to Niemann when he competes in elite events? He is a truly world-class talent, but his record in majors is substandard in contrast to his skill set. Second at LIV London a week ago, the talented Chilean struggled with his ball striking just prior at Royal Troon.

Noren won the Open de France in 2018. One of the career strokes gained leaders in the field at Le Golf National, his ability to score on any length par 4 is a huge asset. One of the best wedge players in the world, Noren and his plus odds on this H2H bet should reward us when it matters most and short game counts.

Men's Olympic golf: Live odds to win

Odds (+10000 and shorter) courtesy of BetMGM. 

Men's Olympic golf: Conditions, winning trends

One image we all remember from the 2018 Ryder Cup was the American team consistently hacking out of thick gnarly rough. Early press room interviews reveal that is not the setup situation for the Olympic games. The rough is much shorter and far less penal than the Ryder Cup matches. Hitting from the fairway is always favored, but should the rough situation be represented accurately by the talking heads, look for low scoring in these games. Le Golf National's best defense is getting into trouble. Ten holes with water in play are not enough to slow these guys down. They had 15 holes with penalty areas in Minnesota and the winning total was 17 under par.

Independent of rough length, this design has a number of doglegs that ask for positional tee shots. Nine landing areas will be common targets amongst the 60 players. Unlike any given week where points, payouts, and pride manage the outcome, this week is unique. Who knows how aggressive players will attack. Some may see this as a measuring moment against the field, while others may just consider it to be an exhibition. Comparing multiple mindsets and the architecture, I still believe this course rewards patience over power and our outright card will reflect that.

Medal hopefuls will have 10 approach shots from over 175 yards. Mid and long iron acumen will be tested on the Albatross course. With the field assembled, you will need to be special with the long sticks to separate. Since those shots are becoming more and more common amongst this crowd, I'm very interested in the short approaches on the par 5s and short par 4s as well. Seven par 4s measure under 430 yards. Scoring on those holes becomes a scrambling contest. Getting in close from any yardage with a wedge is an evolving talent on TOUR. More and more we see this complementary call for 200+ yard approaches and scrambling skill from 60-120 yards.

Our outrights are excellent with a wedge from all angles. That's really the key around this place. Graeme McDowell has won here twice on the DP World Tour and he made a career off of his wedge play. Creativity and the ability to control spin on these green complexes will be key. The conditions in France could also go a couple of different directions. Similar to TPC Twin Cities, you will probably need 20 sub-par scores this week. Who can get there on a short tricky layout? There are 30 course rookies in the field.

Confidence brings scoring ability. Favoring those in the field who have course history makes sense. Of the six betting favorites under +2000, only Rory and Rahm have competed at Le Golf National. I realize Scottie and Xander are amazing players, but when you are splitting hairs, these are the types of edges that lead to finding Jhonny Vegas in a field of 156. It is also worth mentioning that the Ryder Cup is a match play event. During no time do you have to hole out and a large majority of the matches you are competing with a world class partner. Making bets based upon Ryder Cup comparisons is a slippery slope. In most cases the course setup will be drastically different and the confidence of playing with a teammate is different than playing individually for your country.

Le Golf National sets up beautifully as a par 4 venue. Many players can score on these par 5s. The average par 3 length is under 200 yards. That's a seven iron or less. Hard to imagine, but it just is. Of the 11 par 4s, only four of them are over 450 yards. Tackling all types of these holes at Le Golf National makes a huge difference. I'm getting behind the par 4 players. A strategy that always pays dividends in majors and situations where we have a number of unknowns. Alongside those skill sets, I've added approach ability from the rough, par 71 scoring, small field success, and DP World Tour experience. For a week that feels like we have a bunch of questions, authentic golf knowledge can provide a plethora of useful answers.

The Americans have been overseas for almost a month. That's a long time to travel. I realize they stay in five star accommodations, but it all makes a difference. You'll see where I'm leaning below, but these are the observations and anecdotes I'm hearing from across the pond.

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Men's Olympic golf course breakdown: Le Golf National

The format is 72-hole individual stroke play. The men and the women will be competing on the same course. Le Golf National is the host of the FedEx Open de France. Held annually, the DP World Tour travels to this venue each fall. Much like the signature events we have grown so accustomed to, there is no cut this week. All 60 men get 72 holes to try and win a medal. Le Golf National is a 36-hole golf facility. The Olympians will be competing on the Albatross layout. A par 71 course covering 7,174 yards, target golf does not begin to describe this accuracy test.

Eighteen different NBC and Peacock channels are broadcasting the games so there's a good chance you are familiar with the weather in France. It's hot and the forecast calls for little relief. The wind will be in the single digits as temperatures spike in the high-80s. There's a good chance of a storm on Thursday. The remaining three rounds should be dry. We are betting the winner in our outright card, but at the Olympics, we will actually see three winners (Gold, Silver, Bronze). Who could forget the seven-way playoff for the bronze medal back in Japan (2021). CT Pan won the medal over Paul Casey, Mito Periera, Hideki Matsuyama, Rory Mcilroy, Collin Morikawa, and Sebastian Munoz.

The average winning score of the Open de France is 12 under par in the last five editions. Recent winners include Tommy Fleetwood and Alex Noren (both in the field). The course has average sized greens (7,500 sq/ft) covered in a Poa annua Bentgrass blend we are all familiar with. Unlike the courses we just witnessed in Scotland, this looks like American aerial attack golf. Ten holes have water in play and the field will face 51 bunkers across 18 holes. Thirty rookies will face the Albatross course for the first time in competition; half the field. That includes our four American stars.

The tournament favorites are Scottie Scheffler (+350) and Xander Schauffele (+550). Jon Rahm just won LIV Golf London and Rory frame out the top four. Unlike the TOUR's fifth major, this event brings LIV and the PGA TOUR competitors together again. For a fifth time this year, we get to see Jon Rahm, Joaquin Niemann, and a few other LIV players compete. Rahm's form is on point so it will be really interesting to see him go after Scottie, Xander, and Rory. Can Xander beat everyone again? How will all of this affect the Player of the Year race? Scheffler may have six wins, but what if Xander beats him again along with Rory, Rahm, and the rest.

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