Valero Championship expert picks and predictions with our PGA Pro’s best bets for 2024 golf tournament

In this betting preview:

• Tournament format breakdown
• Expert picks and predictions
• BetMGM odds to win
• Betting trends from past winners
• Course overview

The Texas swing has benefited from a start by Scottie Scheffler in Houston and Rory McIlroy coming back to San Antonio for the second time in three years. McIlroy missed the cut in 2022 — but he, Jordan Spieth, defending champion Corey Conners, and Hideki Matsuyama highlight a Valero Texas Open field that has 11 of the top 30 in the OWGR. God bless the tournament officials with a field that size getting done on time in Rounds 1 and 2. The last time a field of 156 finished the cut on a Friday, mobile sports betting did not exist.

Conners, the reigning Valero champ, has won in San Antonio twice in the past four years. Who could forget his win in last year's event? Conners was a Monday qualifier that week, and a +20000 long shot to win. Well, get ready for a wild week out west. Six out of the past 10 winners have held pre-tournament odds over +10000. Will the 2024 trend of longshot winners and Scottie continue? Or, is there a very nice priced middle-tier talent who can take home this Texas title?

Mackenzie Hughes beat Beau Hossler for a matchup win last week at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Valero Texas Open winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Valero Championship expert picks and predictions

Best bet to win: Ludvig Åberg (+1200 on BetMGM)

Fresh off one of his best career ball-striking weeks at THE PLAYERS, Åberg heads into Texas with all sorts of momentum. With all of the attention at the top of the betting board on Rory, Spieth, and Hideki, Åberg can hang under the radar.

Ludvig is a perfect fit for TPC San Antonio. Only Rory drives it better, and Åberg’s short-game edge is top 5 in the field. This reminds me of watching Ludvig destroy Sea Island in the fall. Attack with the driver and your scoring wedges to go low. He played that weekend in 122 strokes (61-61), something very likely to happen again in Texas. 

Best head-to-head prop: Corey Conners over Collin Morikawa (-120 on BetMGM)

As we mentioned, Conners has won the Valero twice over the past four years. He’s coming in with two straight top-20 finishes at API and THE PLAYERS. No player in this weekend's field has more strokes gained on property than Conners.

Collin Morikawa has never played here before, and he has clearly had a shaky start to the season. The usually-reliable iron player has lost strokes on approach in three of his past four starts. Conners feels like a very safe bet here.

*BET OF THE WEEK*
K.H. Lee to finish in the top 40 (+140 on FanDuel)

Lee, who finished fourth at the Cognizant Classic, ninth at the Valspar, and 38th in Houston, has two top-25 results in three starts at TPC San Antonio. Twice a winner in Dallas, Lee knows how to get it done in the Lone Star state. His recent success stems from great driving and a consistent putter. Lee is also capable of scoring from close range and saving par. He has enough skills in this field for a nice finish. 

Valero Championship live odds to win

Odds (shorter than +10000) courtesy of BetMGM.

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Valero Championship past winners, betting trends

We started playing the Valero at the Oaks Course in 2010, so make sure you limit your research to the correct years. I get asked this question all the time: how far is too far to go back? I break down my research into the last five and 10 years. I compare the two ranges and look for trends. If I had to pick a specific time, I wouldn't go back past COVID. Players have evolved so quickly since 2020. For well-established courses such at TPC San Antonio, the last five years will teach you plenty.

• Recent winners have excelled on the par-4s.
• They gain almost twice as many strokes on the field than the par-5s.
• Those gains happen on the five par-4s, which are under 410 yards in length.
• For a 7,400-plus yard scorecard, there are plenty of subpar scoring opportunities.
• The top-10 leaderboards have scored with short approach shots.
• Six hundred-yard par-5s and 400-yard par-4s leave you with short wedges into the green. I have weighed those shots on approach more than anything else.

The remaining approach shots are firing into smaller than average-sized targets. Gaining GIRs on the field will also pave a path toward contending. For the sixth week in a row, the TOUR will present these guys with a tough test. I am going to favor recent form over course history. If a guy has both, great — but as we have seen this year, the best ball-strikers win. Getting caught up in horses for courses has led to a bunch of mediocre results. The TOUR is rapidly evolving. LIV essentially removed a number of elite players, leaving us with just a few per non-signature event. Combine that with a much more competitive Korn Ferry Tour, and you see the results.

Everyone is getting better. I am very fortunate, as I get to see it live most weeks. In the last two-plus years I have been actively covering the TOUR, it has been tougher to see the overall difference between a sharp Stephan Jaeger and an elite player competing at 90 percent skill level. You have to look for the difficult tests at each venue to separate the Sunday challengers. Valero's bunkers are wicked. The sand will separate the weekend warriors at TPC San Antonio. We have to factor in green-side bunker play. Full disclosure: I want a very well-rounded ball-striker from any sand lie. Around-the-green play did not pop significantly in the leaderboard research, but know this...

The average winning score is about eight shots lower than the number of birdies (or subpar scores) made. If you cannot avoid bogeys, you'll be home for the weekend. Over the last decade, the cutline average is two over par. The Oaks Course is a difficult test with some tough terrain. We've seen many players over the years get a bad break or two around these greens and in the bunkers. I'm sticking with the straight flushers in Texas who can really score. The bad breaks will come — and the more you can light up the leaderboard, the better.

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Valero Championship: TPC San Antonio Oaks Course breakdown

TPC San Antonio has two courses. The PGA TOUR competes on the Oaks Course. A par-72 Greg Norman design, it stretches 7,438 yards. What do we really need to know about this course? Here's my top 5 concerns:

• In 2023, it was the fourth-longest course on TOUR. Length helps at TPC San Antonio.
• These are some of the most difficult bunkers on the PGA TOUR. All but one green complex has sand guarding the putting surface.
• Six of the seven most difficult holes are par-4s.
• These are the sixth-smallest greens on TOUR, so GIRs give you an edge.
• Nine holes have a birdie rate over 15 percent, 11 holes have a bogey rate over 15 percent. Players must make sure they can get out of trouble in San Antonio.

In line with that last point, the average winning score over the last five years has been 16 under par. The winners averaged 24 subpar scores the year they won. The field will make bogeys on the Oaks Course. If you tend to make bogeys, you better make a ton a birdies. If the winner is not a scoring machine, he better be able to save pars.

The weather forecast calls for temperatures in the high 70s. Less than an inch of rain (0.8") has fallen in the two weeks leading up to the tourney. The Superintendent and Tournament Officials seem happy with the conditions and ready for event week. The first three rounds look dry, with wind blowing in the low teens. Sunday has a 25 percent chance of rain at this point. 

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I mentioned the bunkers — they are some of the most difficult fairway and green-side traps on the TOUR. Norman designed them with rough jagged edges and in very specific landing areas. Ten of the 14 tee shots are challenged by sand. Sixty-four bunkers in total cover the Oaks Course. It has just 35 acres of fairway to find off the tee. That's tight in a majority of cases for 7,400 yards. The field hits an average of 59 percent of the GIRs. That is well below the PGA TOUR weekly average. Down the stretch in Houston, we saw the movement of the turf determine lies and difficulty. An excellent job by Tom Doak to be subtle and savvy at the same time.

Norman's design is much more straightforward. Don't hit it here, drive it there. Norman always favors great drivers and tended to keep the green surfaces somewhat simple. Players don't tend to 3-putt very much at TPC San Antonio, and scrambling ranks in the middle of the pack for TOUR venues. The largest influence on approach play comes from very close range. With four par-5s averaging just under 600 yards and 50 percent of the par-4s under 410 yards, it is easy to imagine why 75-100 yards approaches will lead directly to birdie opportunities.

Scoring matters at TPC San Antonio. The winners average 23 subpar scores over the last decade. Those same winners have also used this week to earn an invitation to Augusta. We have plenty in this field of 156 who would love a trip down Magnolia Lane. You just have to get inside the top 65 and ties to play the weekend. Once there, the $1.6 million check (purse $9.2M) will help pay for a flight (and week) at Augusta National. The Oaks Course is really nothing special, but an invitation to the 88th Masters is and that will keep all of our attention this weekend! 

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 26 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.