The USA men's basketball team comes into its semifinal game against Serbia as a heavy favorite, but the Americans will have their hands full trying to slow down Nikola Jokic, who showed that he is very capable of dominating both ends of the floor in his team's quarterfinal win against Australia.
Jokic has been his usual dominant self in the Olympics, averaging 19.3 points, 11.8 rebounds and 7.5 assists per game on a sterling 60.4 percent shooting from the field. Serbia has some other good players on its team, including NBA guards Bogdan Bogdanovic and Vasilije Micic.
Even so, if Serbia pulls off the upset, it will be because of a monster game from Jokic.
Here's how the USA can prevent that from happening.
USA-SERBIA PREDICTION: Can Nikola Jokic pull off upset in 2024 Olympics basketball semifinals?
How Team USA slows down Nikola Jokic
Take advantage of Serbian coaching
Serbia's coach Svetislav Pesic has used a more international style of basketball when coaching his team, resting Jokic more than he's accustomed to in the NBA and not giving him as many touches.
That proved disastrous in the first meeting between these two teams. Serbia kept pace with the USA in Jokic's 31 minutes, where he played the Americans to a tie. In the nine minutes that he sat, Serbia was outscored 29-3.
That has been a theme throughout Jokic's career both internationally and with the Nuggets. If Jokic doesn't play all 40, then the USA has to hammer Serbia when he sits.
Use every weapon
The USA's best attribute in this tournament is its depth. Coach Steve Kerr leaned on that heavily in the team's win during the group stage, as he told Mark Kiszla of the Denver Gazette.
“We have three guys that can guard him. Just rotate guys onto him and cross your fingers, because he’s a brilliant player."
That's probably the best approach for slowing Jokic down. All three of Team USA's big men defended Jokic decently well during the NBA regular season last year. Jokic shot 58.3 percent from the field for the season. He was held under that percentage by the USA's trio.
| Defender | FG% | Points | Turnovers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Embiid | 50.0% | 12 | 2 |
| Anthony Davis | 52.0% | 31 | 4 |
| Bam Adebayo | 50.0% | 17 | 6 |
That doesn't mean that those three won't have their hands full. Adebayo has called Jokic the toughest cover in the league and lost in the NBA Finals to him two seasons ago. Davis has been knocked out of the playoffs in two consecutive years by Jokic. And Jokic scored 25 points to go along with 19 rebounds in his only meeting with Embiid last season.
One weapon that may prove effective is the combination of Adebayo and Davis on the floor together. Kerr has used that lineup effectively, which allows Team USA to have two All-Defensive bigs playing off each other.
That dual-big man threat also worked in last season's Western Conference Finals, where Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns were able to defeat Jokic's Nuggets.
Kerr will throw the kitchen sink at Jokic. Serbia's 95.5 points per game ranks second overall in this tournament behind Team USA's 109.8. The Serbians are a dangerous team that even the best defenders in the world are going to have trouble stopping.
At the end of the day, the USA's best bet may be to let Jokic get his and try and outscore the rest of his teammates.