CBS Sports analyst Brad Nessler lives in the Atlanta area and had the chance to see Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola play at Buford, Ga.
"He fit the bill there in one of the best high-school football programs in the country," Nessler told Sporting News. "I live just down the street. He's what everybody says he is."
Now, combine Raiola – the ultimate five-star legacy recruit at Nebraska – with the state of the program. CBS Sports analyst Rick Neuheisel puts it into the kind of perspective that would make anybody who grew up in the 1990s do a double take.
"The fact that Nebraska hasn't been to a bowl game since 2016 boggles my mind the way that program is revered by its fan-base," Neuheisel said. "I expect that term will come to an end."
It is true. Nebraska is 28-52 the last seven seasons. A Cleveland.com media poll picked the Huskers to finish eighth in the new-look 18-team Big Ten. Second-year coach Matt Rhule, however, is in the second year of one of his tell-tale program renovations, and Raiola could be the X-factor in building a true contender in Lincoln.
"To go 5-7 again, that's not going to be good enough," Rhule said at Big Ten Media Days on July 24. "What does that mean? I really don't look at it that way, but I'm telling you I'm confident in this team. I expect us to be a good team."
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What to expect from Matt Rhule in Year 2
Rhule has a talent for dropping exact numbers. At Big Ten Media Day, he told reporters Nebraska has "37 different defenses." When asked about Oregon – he noted the 38-20 score Penn State won by when he was a player in the 1995 Rose Bowl. He then proceeded to rattle off Oregon's record the last two years – which was 10-3 and 12-2.
Nebraska hasn't enjoyed a 10-win season since 2012, and the two primary culprits remain the same. The Huskers are 2-17 in one-score games since 2021 – and had a -17 turnover ratio last season.
"We gave the ball away 31 times," Rhule said. "We only took it away 14. Both sides have the onus, but to give the ball away 31 times, our season would have been different had that not happened."
Rhule elaborated on that trend. It was not simply bad luck. He pointed to a non-contact fumble against Iowa. What is the solution? Rhule consulted with Ron Brown, a long-time Nebraska assistant who is the director of player support and outreach. Brown's answer: 'We aren't coaching it hard enough.'"
"We're trying to coach it harder," Rhule said. "At some point when you have good players, a part of it is, 'Hey, if you turn the ball over, you're not going to play, and on defense, if you take the ball away you're going to play.' I think both of those things help us. … We're going to turn the ball over some. We're not going to be perfect, but we're going to be better."
Rhule also analyzed another root cause of those turnovers. Passer efficiency. The Huskers ranked 13th in the Big Ten in passer efficiency last season – one spot ahead of Iowa. Nebraska quarterbacks combined for 10 TDs, 16 interceptions and a 105 passer rating.
Is Dylan Raiola the answer?
Raiola passed for 2,819 yards, 34 TDs and one interception at Buford last season. He arrived at fall camp as a Patrick Mahomes doppelganger, and that has only added to the hype around Raiola, whose father Dominic played at Nebraska from 1997-2000 and uncle Donovan is the offensive line coach.
According to 247Sports.com, there have been 31 five-star quarterbacks since 2015. Raiola is Nebraska's first five-star QB, and he carries a legacy somewhere in between North Carolina's Drake Maye (2021) and Texas' Arch Manning (2023) in terms of hype. The result is high expectations – and for Raiola that will be at an accelerated timeline. Will he be able to handle that?
"First of all, most quarterbacks play only football now," Neuheisel said. "They've been in the school of quarterbacking – like you would say school of rock - in the school of quarterbacking for a long time over their high school careers. Whether that's the summer or the Elite 11 and the camps they go to or a quarterback guru who is schooling them up. They are far more advanced than 20 years ago."
Rhule credits Raiola for putting in the work since arriving on campus. Junior Heinrich Haarberg is the backup.
"Dylan has done a great job of coming in and being one of the guys," Rhule said. "If I walk in to get my little old man workout at 4 o'clock in the afternoon, he's usually there doing something extra. If I go there early in the morning, he's usually there throwing. … I think the thing with Dylan is he spends a lot of time learning football, understanding, because as a freshman it's hard to process."
Rhule recalled a conversation with legendary coach Tom Osborne, who said sometimes a freshman quarterback can look great in fall camp against the same defense before struggling in Week 2. That will be part of the curve with Raiola.
Rhule again uses a specific example during his time with the New York Giants on Sept. 16, 2012. Eli Manning threw three first-half interceptions against Tampa Bay. There was no thought to benching Manning. He bounced back and led New York to a 41-34 victory.
"We didn't pull him, go play through it." Rhule said. "When I name the starter, I want him to play through it."
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What is a reasonable expectation for Nebraska?
Nessler sees that coach-quarterback relationship between Rhule and Raiola being the key for Nebraska in 2024.
"He slowly put that together," Nessler said. "Not slowly, but over a couple years made the defense stronger. Their offense is going to be what the quarterback is."
The turnover margin and close losses are not all on the quarterback, but an answer at the position would help what should be a more talented Nebraska roster on both sides of the ball. The Huskers open with UTEP before the first measuring stick game in the old-school rivalry with Colorado and coach Deion Sanders. The Buffaloes beat the Huskers 36-14 on Set. 9, 2023.
"I expect us to be good," Rhule said. "I expect us to win. I expect us to be relevant in the conference."
Based on his last college football stops, Rhule is ahead of schedule. Temple improved from 2-10 in 2013 to 6-6 in 2014. Baylor improved from 1-11 in 2017 to 7-6 in 2018. Both programs hit double-digit wins by Year 3. Yet Rhule does not think in terms of those numbers, even with a potential breakout season from Raiola as part of the equation.
"I won't say 10-2 is good," Rhule said. "If I say 10-2 is good or 8-4 is good, then I'm sitting here and telling you that we are going to lose four games. I want us to go out and try to win every game. That seems right to me.
"I don't care what people say about what I'm doing right now, but I care very much when you look back at what I did 10 years from now that most of the things were right or I did the best I could," Rhule said.