Comeback Player of the Year candidate Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers brought Tampa Bay its third consecutive NFC South title last season, and even made some noise with a huge postseason victory over Jalen Hurts and the Eagles in the Wild Card round.
But the new-look Falcons bagged the biggest offseason acquisition in QB Kirk Cousins, and a new regime under Raheem Morris has the ATL thinking playoffs again for the first time since the Matt Ryan era.
Who will prevail with the NFC South title this season? Let's check out the odds, and declare the best bet to win the division ahead of the 2024 NFL season.
MORE: Where Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield sit in SN's QB rankings
NFC South odds 2024: Falcons favored over Bucs, Saints
All odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
| Team | Odds |
| Atlanta Falcons | -140 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +300 |
| New Orleans Saints | +450 |
| Carolina Panthers | +1200 |
The Falcons serve as the odds-on favorite to win the NFC South, with Baker Mayfield's Bucs and Derek Carr's Saints lumped pretty close together for the second-shortest odds.
Atlanta's -140 odds translate to an implied win probability of over 58.3 percent, while Tampa and New Orleans have implied probabilities of 25 and 18 percent, respectively.
The Panthers, still rebuilding with second-year QB Bryce Young and new head coach Dave Canales (the offensive coordinator who oversaw Baker Mayfield's breakout last season) serve as the long-shots of the division.
NFC South odds 2024: Best bet to win the division
Falcons (-140)
It always feels boring to go with chalk in a futures market like a divisional race — especially when the favorite yields negative odds — but it's difficult to bet against the Falcons in the NFC South this season.
Running back Bijan Robinson might be the most talented and athletic skill-position player under 23 years old in the NFL, and Cousins should unlock the skills of pass-catchers Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and newcomers Darnell Mooney, Rondale Moore, and Ray-Ray McCloud.
But that's not all there is to love about the Dirty Birds. They also field one of the most underrated defenses in the NFL, with a pass rush that recently got even better with the arrival of former Patriot Matthew Judon via trade. If Judon can stay healthy, that move might be viewed as the final x-factor to this franchise rebuild.
Many fear that Atlanta's underwhelming free-agency run outside of Cousins — combined with its questionable decision to use the eighth pick of the draft on fellow QB Michael Penix Jr. — could haunt this team's long-term potential to truly contend. But as currently constituted, in an otherwise poorly-coached and weak QB division like the NFC South, it's almost impossible to pick the Bucs or Saints over the Falcons.