It's finally here — the 2024 NFL season has arrived. And with the start of every new campaign always comes a barrage of futures betting activity. One of the most popular futures wagers — NFL MVP — should once again generate a ton of action between now and the end of the season.
Why do bettors love MVP? For one, it involves the superstars of a star-studded league. It also doesn't hinge completely on star power or the teams around the players. If a stud QB puts up a massive statistical season and plays the most impressive campaign in the league, he's most likely going to win even if his team doesn't finish No. 1 in the standings.
Lamar Jackson won his second MVP last season after Patrick Mahomes won his second in 2022. Before that, it was Aaron Rodgers winning his third and fourth in '20 and '21. Needless to say, the league could use a new name and fresh face next to its trophy.
Many people believe this year's first-time winner will be the Bills' Josh Allen. Today we will talk about why that player will be Joe Burrow of the Bengals. First, let's look at the odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
MORE: 2024 QB rankings | Final rosters for all 32 teams
NFL MVP 2024: Odds to win
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
| Player | Odds |
| Patrick Mahomes | +500 |
| Josh Allen | +850 |
| Joe Burrow | +900 |
| CJ Stroud | +1000 |
| Jalen Hurts | +1000 |
| Jordan Love | +1400 |
| Brock Purdy | +1600 |
| Dak Prescott | +1800 |
| Jared Goff | +1800 |
| Lamar Jackson | +2000 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +2000 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +2500 |
| Anthony Richardson | +2800 |
| Justin Herbert | +3000 |
| Matthew Stafford | +3000 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +3000 |
| Christian McCaffrey | +3500 |
| Kirk Cousins | +4000 |
| Caleb Williams | +4000 |
| Kyler Murray | +5000 |
NFL MVP prediction 2024: Why Joe Burrow will win
Joe Burrow isn't just a top contender for his second career Comeback Player of the Year award (+250) after getting hurt with a wrist injury last season — he's also a top-three contender to win MVP (+900).
There's always some risk attached to betting on a player coming off an injury, but every single film we've seen and rumbling we've heard from the Bengals' camp has told us he will be fine this season. He looks bigger, stronger, faster, and focused. He's got the same-old Joe rizz and confidence but with 10-15 pounds more muscle mass and a brand-new Slim Shady hairdo.
Joe Cool also has a pretty good team around him. Cincinnati enjoyed one of the strongest drafts in the NFL, kept wide receiver Tee Higgins as Ja'Marr Chase's partner in crime, and beefed up its offensive line a bit. All the Bengals need now is for Burrow to stay healthy across a full season.
When that happens, good things tend to happen to Cincy. The Bengals are the only team in the past half-decade to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs, and Burrow is the only AFC QB besides Patrick Mahomes to get to the Super Bowl since the Tom Brady Patriots era. He's a winner, thanks to his high IQ, work ethic, and borderline-obsessive level of preparedness.
The Bengals have a very solid team, which is why they yield the sixth-shortest odds to win Super Bowl 59. They also have a relatively easy non-divisional strength of schedule, with cupcake opponents like the Patriots, Commanders, Panthers, Giants, Raiders, Broncos and Titans. If Burrow racks up some massive counting stats against those below-average opponents and wins some big games against the contenders like he always does, this should be his year to win the league's most prestigious individual award.
NFL MVP prediction 2024: Why Patrick Mahomes won't win
Mahomes will always sit atop the MVP odds board, as he's the most famous, most talented, and winningest QB of the current era. The Chiefs have won the past two Super Bowls, and he has bagged Super Bowl MVP in both of those big games. The sportsbooks will never let him drift too far down the futures board, because they don't want to attach long odds that will yield high potential payouts and increase their Mahomes-related liabilities.
That said, last year taught us that Mahomes and the Chiefs care far less about regular-season dominance and far more about turning up the heat when it matters the most: the postseason. The two QBs who arguably had the most impressive passing stretches of the regular season — Tua Tagovailoa and Dak Prescott — fizzled out in the playoffs, with the Dolphins losing to Kansas City in the first round. The league MVP, Lamar Jackson, couldn't lead the Ravens past the Chiefs in the AFC title game.
Mahomes is already widely considered the best QB since Tom Brady, so there's no sense in him trying to compete with Aaron Rodgers' four league MVPs (never mind Peyton Manning's record five). He and the Chiefs probably will, however, try to become the first team to win three consecutive Super Bowls. A win in Super Bowl 59 would give Mahomes four, putting him in a class of three with Brady (7), Joe Montana (4) and Terry Bradshaw (4).
Mahomes is 28 now, and he's smart enough to know that Super Bowl MVPs drive one's legacy more than league MVPs. He's not going to bust his butt to win a regular-season award, one that voter fatigue will more than likely disadvantage him from anyway. Don't go chalk on award futures, and don't go chalk on a guy who probably doesn't care if he wins!
NFL MVP prediction 2024: Why Josh Allen won't win
Credit the Bills for having a strong offensive line in place ahead of the 2024 season, but dock them a little for not getting Allen a legit No. 1 wide receiver to replace the humongous void left by All-Pro Stefon Diggs. Just look at Buffalo's receiver depth chart!
- Khalil Shakir
- Keon Coleman (R)
- Curtis Samuel Q
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Q)
- Mack Hollins
Let's go down the list. That's a WR1 who has never been higher than a WR3 or WR4, a rookie, two guys who will start the season banged up, and a 30-year-old journeyman who has averaged 21.8 catches per season and never exceeded four TDs in a campaign.
Between that paltry receiver room and the underwhelming RB1 in James Cook, Allen doesn't have enough help to be legitimately considered an MVP candidate. Unless tight end Dalton Kincaid becomes the next Travis Kelce, it's going to be a long year in a division that's not always kind to inconsistent passing attacks.
That's not to say that Allen and the Bills won't compete. It's just difficult seeing them compete and win enough to put Allen back in the MVP conversation. Buffalo also isn't flashy enough to turn heads and out-duel Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins, nor does it have enough manpower to create consistent separation against an elite secondary like the Jets.
When the Bills struggle, they struggle mightily — and Allen often forces passes or tries to do too much with his legs. Buffalo should encounter some major roadblocks in its first foray without Diggs, and even a short stretch of in-season blemishes can completely tarnish a quarterback's MVP chances.
Allen had four of 50 first-place votes in 2020, and just two total since 2021. That's not a great indicator of future MVP success, especially considering he just lost the best pass-catching weapon he has ever had. Like "Mean Girls" with the term "fetch," we need to stop trying to make MVP Josh Allen happen.