The NFL's ability to expand its schedule across an entire calendar year is truly remarkable. Between the regular season, postseason, free agency, NFL Combine, NFL Draft, and preseason activities, each season is a 12-month affair.
Immediately after the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 58, attention turned to the upcoming NFL Draft. This was a star-studded rookie class, highlighted by three promising quarterback prospects. But to some NFL fans and draft analysts, the crop of wide receivers was the most intriguing positional group in this year's draft class.
Not only is there plenty of depth among the 2024 rookie wide receivers, but the top of the class is truly special. Some have regarded Marvin Harrison Jr. as the best prospect since Calvin Johnson, while Malik Nabers has been heralded as the second coming of Ja'Marr Chase. Both players were selected in the top-6 picks of the NFL Draft and are expected to make immediate impacts as rookies.
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Harrison landed in a more favorable offensive environment, joining forces with Kyler Murray in Arizona. But Malik Nabers' landing spot with the New York Giants puts him in a position to be the sole engine of the offense.
Who will be the best rookie wide receiver value in fantasy football - Malik Nabers or Marvin Harrison Jr.?
Malik Nabers' fantasy football outlook for 2024
Nabers may have been selected behind Harrison, but he is the WR1 in 9-out-of-10 draft classes. His speed, YAC ability, and collegiate productivity create a very special prospect profile. Nabers was an elite prospect from an analytical perspective, and his film from LSU paints a similar picture.
Nabers landed with the Giants, joining Daniel Jones and company. This is less than ideal, but there is a positive spin on this. With the Giants being completely starved for offensive talent, Nabers will likely dominate the target share market in New York. We this play out in his final preseason outing, running 17 routes and earning a target on six of those routes. The sample size is small, but this sort of target-per-route rate (35 percent) is exactly what Nabers needs to succeed in fantasy.
The bet on Nabers is a bet on both volume and talent. We all know that Daniel Jones is a bottom-tier starting quarterback, and this offense has a chance to be one of the worst in the NFL. But we also know that the moment that Nabers steps onto an NFL field, he'll be the Giants' only hope of offensive success. He will be force-fed targets at a high rate, and he proved in college that he has the ability to produce at a high level with those targets.
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The NFL record for targets in a rookie season is 165, set by Anquan Boldin in 2003. There is an outcome where Nabers challenges this number this year. If he is one of the biggest target earners in the NFL, he will be a phenomenal fantasy pick regardless of the environment around him.
Marvin Harrison Jr.'s fantasy football outlook for 2024
What's not to love about Marvin Harrison Jr.'s prospect profile? His footwork, crisp route running, contested catch ability, and body control are all incredible. It's quite obvious that he is the offspring of a Hall of Fame receiver.
Much like Nabers, Harrison's numbers from his time at Ohio State reflect exactly what you see on film. Just take his 2022 performance against Penn State where he finished with 10 receptions for 185 yards, with all 10 catches resulting in first downs. Absolute nonsense out of Maserati Marv.
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There was a good reason for Harrison being selected as the top non-quarterback in this draft class. He is the type of receiver who changes the outlook of an offense from the moment he is drafted. Harrison will do just that after joining the Arizona Cardinals, becoming part of a young offensive core that will look to propel the team into the future.
It's often a big deal when a receiver cracks 1,000 yards as a rookie; with Harrison, 1,000 yards (and more) is the expectation. In an era where rookie receivers are asked to produce right away, Harrison will be asked to carry the offense on his shoulders starting in Week 1. There's no doubt that expectations for Harrison are big, but he has the talent to live up to them.
The Verdict: Should you draft Marvin Harrison Jr. or Malik Nabers?
It's likely that Harrison is the most aggressively drafted rookie receiver in the history of fantasy football. He currently comes off the board as the WR9 in Round 2 of drafts. While it's reasonable for him to meet his draft capital expectations, this is still a tall order for a rookie. Nabers, on the other hand, is drafted as the WR24 at the beginning of Round 5.
Harrison may be the more enticing prospect and fantasy asset, but Nabers is the far better value. There is no reason that a receiver who could make a push for 160 targets should be drafted as a low-end WR2. It's not even a purely volume-based bet with Nabers; this guy is highly talented, to the point that some believed he was the WR1 ahead of Harrison.
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Look past the disgusting quarterback situation and understand that Nabers has the target-earning ability and overall talent to overcome these obstacles. This type of talent should not be available in Round 5. He can be comfortably selected anywhere after pick 30 and would still be a strong selection.