A rivalry headlines the UFC’s return to Perth as Dricus du Plessis defends the UFC middleweight title against former champion Israel Adesanya at UFC 305 on August 17.
Du Plessis beat former champion Robert Whittaker for a shot at then-champion Sean Strickland, eventually beating Strickland in a fight marked by scorecard controversy. The 30-year-old former kickboxing champion is on a nine-fight win streak.
Adesanya is 2-2 in his last four fights. Following a lengthy reign as middleweight champion, he lost the belt against rival Alex Pereira, won it back, but lost against Strickland following a lackluster performance. "The Last Stylebender" took almost a year off from action and now looks to become a three-time middleweight champion.
MORE: Ranked: The 25 best MMA fighters under the age of 25
With the help of Sports Interaction, the Sporting News makes predictions on the entire card at UFC 305.
UFC 305 expert picks and full card predictions
Dricus du Plessis (c) vs. Israel Adesanya for the UFC middleweight title
Per Sports Interaction, Dricus du Plessis and Israel Adesanya are even at -110.
du Plessis has not lost a fight since 2018, with only two of the last nine fights going the distance. He lands 6.49 significant strikes per minute, outstriking all his octagon opponents. He also averages 3.00 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Adesanya lands 3.93 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 48%. During the height of his UFC career, Adesanya bulled everyone in his path.
It has been stated before in fight previews, but Adesanya is a chameleon, adapting to the styles of his opponents. Would that mean he will go shot for shot with du Plessis? Not likely, but he will look to land punishing blows. However, du Plessis can spice things up and move to the ground, something Adesanya is susceptible to.
Will emotion get in Adesanya’s way? He uses speed, combination striking, and superior defense to outshine his opponents, but steering away from the game plan by a little bit could be dangerous. Time off will also play a factor, something du Plessis looks to take advantage of.
du Plessis can rush toward Adesanya and land clean shots, picking the right moments to strike. It should be enough to halt Adesanya’s quest for a third title reign. It could either be a fun fight or the opposite. Expect the former, with du Plessis tiring Adesanya out for the win.
Sporting News prediction: du Plessis via unanimous decision
Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg; Flyweights
Per Sports Interaction, Steve Erceg is the -165 favorite, while Kai Kara-France is the +140 underdog.
A former UFC flyweight title contender, Erceg lands 4.52 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 49%. He averages 1.24 takedowns per 15 minutes. Kara-France lands 4.57 significant strikes per minute, has a strike accuracy mark of 39%, and averages 0.63 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
MORE: UFC 305: Adesanya could achieve feat only one fighter has pulled off before
Erceg absorbs 4.20 significant strikes, but it also compliments his boxing, landing 111 strikes in a loss against Alexandre Pantoja. Kara-France is on a two-fight losing streak. Erceg’s first crack at gold shouldn’t be his last, and he should do enough to punish Kara-France.
Sporting News prediction: Erceg via split decision
Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker; Lightweights
Per Sports Interaction, Mateusz Gamrot is the -350 favorite, while Dan Hooker is the +275 underdog.
Gamrot is on a three-fight win streak and lands 3.09 significant strikes per minute. He also averages 5.28 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, landing eleven against Rafael dos Anjos. Hooker has won two straight but is 3-4 in his last seven. "The Hangman" lands 5.08 significant strikes per minute, landing 125 against Jalin Turner. He also absorbs 4.76 significant strikes, leading to tough knockout losses.
Hooker has a two-inch height and five-inch reach advantage over Gamrot and will have the crowd behind him. However, he hasn't fought in over a year. Gamrot’s wrestling should help his cause, tiring Hooker out. Even with shots landing from both sides, Gamrot should take the win.
Sporting News prediction: Gamrot via unanimous decision
Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik; Heavyweights
Per Sports Interaction, Jairzinho Rozenstruik is the -225 favorite, while Tai Tuivasa is the +185 underdog.
Following a five-fight win streak, Tuivasa has lost four straight, all via a finish. The Aussie that has grown a cult following lands 3.96 significant strikes per minute. He also absorbs 5.05 significant strikes, with Ciryl Gane landing 110 in 2022. Rozenstruik lands 3.44 significant strikes per minute, landing 127 against Shamil Gaziev.
It may be an ugly fight between two strikers. Tuivasa can swing away and secure a hometown win. However, Rozenstruik’s power is formidable. Looking to head back to the top of the heavyweight rankings, Rozenstruik may be too much for Tuivasa to handle. It may be the end of Tuivasa’s run.
Sporting News prediction: Rozenstruik via KO (round one)
Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates; Welterweights
Per Sports Interaction, Carlos Prates is the -350 favorite, while Li Jingliang is the +270 underdog.
Prates has not lost a fight since 2019 and has 14 wins via knockout, with his last decision win also coming that year. "The Nightmare" lands 4.09 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 5.23. A spine injury kept Jingliang out of action since 2022. "The Leech" is 2-2 in his last four fights, lands 4.46 significant strikes per minute, and averages 1.25 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
MORE: Weighing up Alex Volkanovski's next move
Jingliang is known to overwhelm his opponents with his striking and is willing to engage on the feet and floor. Prates provides pressure in the cage while fighting from all angles. Will Jingliang’s known durability be enough, or will time away affect his ability as Prates faces a step-up in competition?
Sporting News prediction: Jingliang via split decision
Junior Tafa vs. Valter Walker; Heavyweights
Per Sports Interaction, Junior Tafa is the -135 favorite, while Valter Walker is the +110 underdog.
Tafa is 2-2 in his last four fights and lands 1.81 significant strikes per minute. Walker had an unbeaten streak snapped in his first fight in the octagon despite landing four takedowns. He has six wins via knockout.
Outside the one loss, Walker has looked like a monster. If he can take Tafa down, it doesn’t appear the Aussie born in New Zealand would be able to handle the Russian’s aggressive ground and striking game.
Sporting News prediction: Walker via TKO (round two)
Josh Culibao vs. Ricardo Ramos; Featherweights
Per Sports Interaction, Josh Culibao is the -145 favorite, while Ricardo Ramos is the +120 underdog.
Culibao lands 3.20 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 42%. Ramos lands 3.21 significant strikes per minute and has an accuracy mark of 37%. The latter averages 3.02 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, with eight against Bill Algeo in 2021 and four in his last two fights. That may come into play, as Culibao has gotten taken down eight times in four fights.
Both are on a two-fight losing streak. Ramos can tire Culibao on the floor but must be wary of the latter’s striking and slippery submissions. The Sporting News believes Ramos can accomplish that, but it won’t be easy.
Sporting News prediction: Ramos via split decision
Casey O'Neill vs. Luana Santos; Flyweights
Per Sports Interaction, Luana Santos is the -145 favorite, while Casey O'Neill is the +120 underdog. Santos replaces Tereza Bleda.
On a five-fight win streak, with three wins in the octagon, Santos lands 5.33 significant strikes per minute and averages 2.03 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. O'Neill lands 8.41 significant strikes per minute, landing triple-digit shots twice in her last three fights. "King" Casey also averages 1.77 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
MORE: Top 10 women's fights in MMA history
Santos is a last-minute replacement but is still a threat. However, O’Neill’s accuracy and power could be too much for her. If Santos can't pull her down and submit O’Neill quickly, the latter will win, either from the floor or with her hands.
Sporting News prediction: O’Neill via TKO (round two)
Jack Jenkins vs. Herbert Burns; Featherweights
Per Sports Interaction, Jack Jenkins is the -800 favorite, while Herbert Burns is the +500 underdog. Burns is a replacement for Gavin Tucker.
Jenkins lands 4.43 significant strikes per minute, has a 61% strike accuracy mark, and averages 2.56 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Burns lands 1.73 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 40%. The Jiu-Jitsu gold medalist and brother of Gilbert Burns averages 3.00 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
One of the best strikers within the division, Jenkins can attack the body and break legs thanks to his kicks. He can likely take Burns, on a three-fight losing streak, down a size, tiring him out with shots and takedowns. The fight may go the distance. Don’t be surprised if Jenkins can end it early.
Sporting News prediction: Jenkins via unanimous decision
Tom Nolan vs. Alex Reyes; Lightweights
Per Sports Interaction, Tom Nolan is the -1400 favorite, while Alex Reyes is the +175 underdog.
Nolan impressed with a first-round beatdown of Bogdan Grad on Dana White's Contender Series and has since gone 1-1. "Big Train" has five wins via knockout, and the Aussie lands 9.26 significant strikes per minute. Reyes is on a two-fight losing streak since entering the octagon but has nine wins via knockout.
Nolan is massive for his weight class and lethal. On home turf, he will look to strike down Reyes, who has not adjusted well to the octagon.
Sporting News prediction: Nolan via KO (round one)
Song Kenan vs. Ricky Glenn; Welterweights
Per Sports Interaction, Song Kenan is the -165 favorite, while Ricky Glenn is the +135 underdog.
Kenan lands 4.36 significant strikes per minute but absorbs 6.38 shots, with opponents landing triple-digit significant strikes in his last three fights. Glenn is on a three-fight losing streak, with two straight fights of not landing double-digit shots. He does land 3.94 significant strikes per minute.
MORE: What to know about The Rock's 'The Smashing Machine' movie
While Glenn appears down on his luck, it has been against superior competition. Kenan has taken plenty of damage in his career, which could be his downfall. It could be a breakout fight for Glenn, who can let loose here.
Sporting News prediction: Glenn via TKO (round one)
Stewart Nicoll vs. Jesus Aguilar; Flyweights
Per Sports Interaction, Stewart Nicoll is the -225 favorite, while Jesus Aguilar is the +185 underdog.
Aguilar lands 1.49 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.90 takedowns landed per minute. The Dana White’s Contender Series alum is 3-1 in the octagon. His takedown defense of 40% does not favor him, especially after getting dropped four times in his last fight. Nicoll has won four fights via knockout and three via submission. Four straight fights have ended via TKO.
Nicoll can extend his TKO streak to five if he takes Aguilar to the floor. That is what The Sporting News predicts in this fight.