The UFC’s welterweight division will be showcased in the APEX as Gilbert Burns and Sean Brady face off on September 7.
Burns (22-7) is 2-2 in his previous four fights, losing a last-second against Jack Della Maddalena in his last contest. The multi-time submission grappling medalist competed for welterweight gold in 2021 and looks to return to the top.
Brady (16-1) recovered from a Belal Muhammad loss by submitting Kelvin Gastelum in December. The former Cage Fury FC welterweight champion has five wins via submission, three coming in the octagon.
Burns hopes to show he still has what it takes to take down a grappling specialist in Brady.
MORE: Ranked: The 25 best MMA fighters under the age of 25
“I hope we’ll grapple. I think we’re gonna grapple,” Burns told The New York Post. “I’m gonna look for grappling. I’m gonna look for takedowns… We might avoid each other, and it might be a battle on the feet, but maybe I get a good takedown; maybe he gets a takedown, and we’ll grapple. I’m excited to see. I still think strongly that we’re gonna grapple.”
With the help of Sports Interaction, The Sporting News makes predictions on the entire card at UFC Vegas 97.
UFC Vegas 97 expert picks and card predictions
Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady; Welterweights
Per Sports Interaction, Sean Brady is the -200 favorite, while Gilbert Burns is the +165 underdog.
Brady, 2-1 in his last three fights, lands 3.77 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 53%. Ranked eighth in the welterweight division, Brady also averages 3.29 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, landing ten in his last three fights. Burns, ranked sixth, lands 3.29 significant strikes and has a 48% accuracy mark. "Durinho" averages 2.24 takedowns landed, landing twelve in his last four fights.
Burns is 2-3 in his last five fights, losing against Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena. His last win was against a fading Jorge Masvidal in 2023, while Brady has risen in the rankings despite losing against Muhammad.
The energy needed to provide a high output on the floor could benefit Brady. Brady provides so much pressure, and while Burns has shown signs of brilliance with his crisp offense, can the 38-year-old maintain it for five rounds against the 31-year-old? If Brady takes him to the floor, he will likely tire Burns out and submit him.
Sporting News prediction: Brady via submission (round three)
Jessica Andrade vs. Natalia Silva; Flyweights
Per Sports Interaction, Natalia Silva is the -300 favorite, while Jessica Andrade is the +240 underdog.
Silva hasn’t lost a fight since 2017, winning eleven straight contests. She lands 4.53 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 44%. Andrade lands 6.62 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 50%. The former UFC strawweight champion also averages 2.37 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
MORE: Top 10 women's fights in MMA history
Both are high in the flyweight rankings, with Andrade frequently switching weights. "Bate Estaca" is also very active, as she competed five times in 2023. It could be a Fight of the Night candidate, with violence a significant theme. Andrade’s willingness to fight whoever could benefit her or be her downfall. There is also a chance she halts another top prospect's momentum.
Finally, in a proper, well-timed training camp, Andrade can secure the upset. It would be best not to blink when this fight happens.
Sporting News prediction: Andrade via TKO (round two)
Steve Garcia vs. Kyle Nelson; Featherweights
Per Sports Interaction, Steve Garcia is the -200 favorite, while Kyle Nelson is the +165 underdog.
Garcia lands 5.00 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 56%. Four octagon fights have yet to make it out of the first round. Nelson lands 3.65 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 45%.
Nelson hasn’t had much luck with the increase in competition, while Garcia has built his way up the ladder. Mental errors could play a factor in the fight, something Garcia looks to take advantage of.
Sporting News: Garcia via KO (round two)
Trevor Peek vs. Yanal Ashmouz; Lightweights
Per Sports Interaction, Trevor Peek is the -125 favorite, while Yanal Ashmouz is the +105 underdog.
Peek lands 4.58 significant strikes per minute and has a 54% strike accuracy mark. He also averages 1.82 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, landing six in his last two fights. A knock against Peek is he’s gotten taken down 17 times in five octagon fights. Ashmouz has four wins via knockout and lands 3.08 significant strikes per minute. The Israeli has a 42% strike accuracy mark.
Peek's power cannot be denied, and he will look to keep the fight on his feet. However, if Ashmouz can make this a technical affair and spice up his offense, he could tire Peek out early. Ashmouz has faced a broader set of opponents in his career (so far), which could make him a more composed fighter. An underdog grinding out a win? Doesn’t seem like the bad play here.
Sporting News prediction: Ashmouz via unanimous decision
Ryan Spann vs. Ovince Saint Preux; Light Heavyweights
Per Sports Interaction, Ryan Spann is the -350 favorite, while Ovince Saint Preux is the +260 underdog.
Spann lands 3.25 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 40%. He averages 1.34 takedowns landed per 15 minutes but hasn’t won since 2022. Saint Preux lands 3.03 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 47%. The master of the Von Flue Choke, OSP averages 1.34 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
It is a must-win fight for both, as OSP competes for relevancy while Spann looks to rebuild momentum. Spann provides pressure and is aggressive early in fights, which OSP must be patient with. If he can grapple Spann to the floor, OSP could tire “Superman” out early. It has been a few years since Saint Preux earned a submission win, and he may have to settle for a decision.
Sporting News prediction: Saint Preux via split decision
Jaqueline Amorim vs. Vanessa Demopoulos; Strawweights
Per Sports Interaction, Jaqueline Amorim is the -300 favorite, while Vanessa Demopoulos is the +230 underdog.
In her short time in the octagon, Amorim lands 3.33 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 52%. She also averages 1.48 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has six wins via submission. Demopoulos lands 3.98 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 41%. "Lil Monster" averages 0.42 takedowns landed.
Amorim’s takedown game has resulted in multiple submission attempts and wins. Demopoulos is susceptible to the takedown, getting dropped five times in October 2023. She can land a mean punch and must dig deep to counter Amorim’s style. Keeping the fight in range and avoiding takedowns is her key to victory. However, one small mistake and Amorim can take advantage of it.
The Sporting News is going with the betting favorite and younger fighter here.