Welcome to College Football Playoff Bracketology.
It's not 68 teams like NCAA men's and women's basketball. It's a 12-team race. Five automatic berths, with the top four conference champions getting first-round byes. A mad scramble for seven at-large berths – which will in turn create what basketball fans know as the "bubble watch."
We have fantasized for 10 years about what a 12-team College Football Playoff would look like. We even had preseason bowl projections at Sporting News for this inaugural year. Now, we'll take a weekly look at the College Football Playoff with a new lens. We will project the 12 playoff teams each week, and we had to make adjustments after Georgia Tech beat Florida State in Week 1.
For Week 1, we used the baseline from our 1-134 rankings, which is going to create one major issue right off the bat. How do you feel about five SEC playoff teams? It will play itself out and that likely won't happen, but remember, you wanted the expanded playoff. More teams does not mean less controversy.
Here is a look at the top four teams, the projected first-round matchups and the four teams on the college football playoff bubble.
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Projected College Football Playoff first-round byes
No. 1 Georgia (SEC champion)
The Bulldogs are the popular pick to win the SEC after losing the conference championship game last season. Kirby Smart has another roster loaded with talent, and that starts with second-year starter Carson Beck at quarterback. The Bulldogs open the season with Clemson in the biggest Week 1 piece of the College Football Playoff puzzle.
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champion)
The Buckeyes are the Big Ten preseason favorite, and Ryan Day returns a loaded roster that will face Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall. While that weak non-conference schedule might draw some criticism, that path worked out fine for Michigan the last two seasons in the Big Ten. Ohio State is the only school that made the New Year's Day Six each of the last 10 seasons. For that reason, the Buckeyes are the safest CFP bet in this format.
No. 3 Utah (Big 12 champion)
Utah is the Big 12 preseason favorite. The Utes were No. 5 in the penultimate CFP rankings in 2019 before losing in the Pac-12 championship game. Now, Utah has the opportunity to win the Big 12 in its first season, and that would allow long-time coach Kyle Whittingham – and long-time quarterback Cam Rising – to break through into the postseason.
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No. 4 Clemson (ACC champion)
The Tigers are No. 14 in our 1-134, which is not great for the perception battle. A couple more potential problems for the ACC: Florida State lost, which alters our conference championship pick before Week 1 starts. Clemson faces Georgia in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game, and Miami travels to Florida. Who will win the wide-open race?
MORE: Breaking down the ACC for 2024
Projected College Football Playoff first-round matchups
A look at Sporting News projected first-round College Football Playoff matchups heading into Week 1 of the college football season:
No. 12 Memphis (American champion) at No. 5 Oregon (Big Ten at-large)
In this scenario, the Ducks are the Big Ten runner-up, and they would get a home game against Memphis, our highest-ranked Group of 5 champion. The Tigers will have to fend off teams such as Boise State (No. 31) and Liberty (No. 37), the next-highest ranked Group of 5 teams. The winner would play No. 4 seed Utah. If that were Oregon as the winner, then it would be a rematch of the 2021 Pac-12 championship game.
No. 11 LSU (SEC at-large) vs. No. 6 Texas (SEC at-large)
Do we have #SECBias in the rankings already? Would LSU really get a fifth SEC bid? We have our doubts, especially if they cannot beat USC in the season opener. The Longhorns do not play the Tigers in the regular season, however, and this matchup is entirely possible. For Week 1, however, we will put the Tigers in and let them prove it on the field this week. The winner would get No. 3 seed Florida State.
No. 10 Michigan (Big Ten at-large) vs. No. 7 Notre Dame (at-large)
We had this matchup in the preseason projections, and it would be the best one among these first-round matchups. A classic blue-blood rivalry that used to be the best game on the September schedule moves to December and would likely be played in prime time four days before Christmas. The home team has won the last six meetings in this series, so, yes, the seeding would matter. The winner here would get No. 2 Ohio State. Sign us up for that game any time.
No. 9 Ole Miss (SEC at-large) vs. No. 8 Alabama (SEC at-large)
Hey, did you hear what Nick Saban said about Lane Kiffin? That would add some residual heat to this matchup, which would be Kalen DeBoer's first home playoff game at Bryant-Denny Stadium. A second all-SEC matchup in the first round – which, again, is something the College Football Playoff committee would try to avoid whenever possible. But these teams do not meet in the regular season. The winner would get No. 1 Georgia.
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Projected College Football Playoff bubble teams
Tennessee
Nico Iamaleava takes over at quarterback, and the Vols are yet another SEC team that could crack the top 12 under Josh Heupel. Tennessee plays Chattanooga in Week 1 before a fun non-conference matchup against NC State. That is another one of those SEC-ACC crossover events that the committee will have earmarked for later in the season.
Penn State
The Nittany Lions are inside the top-10 in most preseason polls, but they cannot claim disrespect with these rankings – at least not yet. Still, the Big Ten likely will get three or four bids, and Penn State can push into the top-12 with a victory at West Virginia in Week 1.
Missouri
The Tigers are coming off an 11-2 season and have one of the friendlier schedules in the SEC, so expect them to hang around for a while. Missouri plays Murray State, Buffalo and Boston College in its non-conference schedule, which is going to come up throughout the season.
MORE: Why strength of schedule in SEC, Big Ten will be hot topic
Kansas State
Kansas State is the second Big 12 team on the list. We won't learn much in Week 1 against UT-Martin, other than quarterback Avery Johnson could be one of the most-entertaining players of the season.
Oklahoma
The Sooners enter Year 3 with Brent Venables with a new quarterback in Jackson Arnold and a brutal first-year schedule in the SEC. Oklahoma is the eighth SEC team on this list.