The opening week of the 2024 NFL season has arrived, and there's still time for bettors to get in some action on the team futures market. One of the most popular divisions to place season-long bets on, the AFC East is shaping up to be a fascinating battle from start to finish in 2024. The Sporting News will dive into this exciting division today, revealing why the Dolphins make the best bet to come away with the next AFC East title.
Of course, 'Fins fans know all too well that Miami should have locked up the divisional crown last year. It was the Bills, however, that went on a late-season surge with five straight victories. The last W of that epic run came against — you guessed it — the Dolphins, in a winner-take-all divisional tilt in the final week of the regular season (both teams finished 11-6, but Buffalo owned the tiebreaker via head-to-head record).
MORE: Is OBJ still on the PUP list? | Where Tua, Allen, and Rodgers sit on SN's QB rankings
Let's dive into the AFC East odds, and make an official prediction for which squad will win the divisional title in the 2024 season.
AFC East odds 2024: Jets slight favorites in three-team race
All odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
| Team | Odds |
| New York Jets | +160 |
| Buffalo Bills | +180 |
| Miami Dolphins | +225 |
| New England Patriots | +2800 |
Talk about a tight race. The Jets enter opening week as the slight favorite to win the division, but their +160 odds translate to just a 38.5-percent implied win probability. The Bills follow closely at +180 (35.7% probability), while the Dolphins sit a close third at +225 (30.8%).
The Patriots, who lost 13 games in 2023 and said goodbye to longtime head coach and de facto GM Bill Belichick, serve as the long-shot of the division at +2800. That's an under 3.5-percent implied probability for rookie QB Drake Maye and the Pats, who would net bettors $1,400 on a $50 stake if they somehow shocked the world under new head coach Jerod Mayo.
A lot has happened since that 21-14 Buffalo win in Miami in early January. The Bills went on to crush the Steelers in the first round of the playoffs but then fell by three to the eventual champion (and Buffalo nemesis) Kansas City Chiefs (KC has knocked Buffalo out of three of the past four postseasons). Those same Chiefs trampled Miami 26-7 in the first round of last year's playoffs in a cold-weather game at Arrowhead Stadium.
The slate has been wiped clean for both these squads, who will also have to contend with four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers and a talented Jets team. Rodgers tore his Achilles four offensive snaps into the start of his tenure in New York last year, a bitter pill for a strong Robert Saleh squad to swallow after many analysts — including Vinnie Iyer of the Sporting News — picked Gang Green to win Super Bowl 58.
All three of these teams could realistically challenge Kansas City for the AFC Championship, so betting the division will be a difficult but fun challenge. Buffalo lost Stefon Diggs but drafted Keon Coleman. Miami lost multiple solid players but beefed up its defense and remains one of the fastest offenses of all time. New York has an elite D and possibly the most high-IQ quarterback in modern history.
AFC East odds 2024: Best bet to win the division
Dolphins (+225)
The Dolphins aren't just the best bet because they yield the longest odds amongst the three contenders in the division — they're the best bet because they have the best and most dominating team from top to bottom. Sure, the Jets have an elite defense and a four-time MVP quarterback, and the Bills have perennial MVP candidate Josh Allen — but Miami has distinct advantages in multiple difference-making aspects of the game.
For one, the Dolphins remain the fastest team in the NFL, something Mike McDaniel has prioritized since he took the helm in South Beach in 2022. All-Pro wideout Tyreek Hill and Pro Bowl sidekick Jaylen Waddle make for a formidable 1-2 punch, as do running backs De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert. Their off-the-line speed and YAC-ability allow QB Tua Tagovailoa to release the ball out of the pocket at record speed, a crucial factor to Tua avoiding pressure and staying healthy.
However, these are all things that most NFL fans — and sportsbooks, for that matter — already know. What many bettors and oddsmakers are failing to realize, though, is how much Miami's defense has improved since last season.
The 'Fins fired defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and hired Ravens defensive line coach Anthony Weaver, who should help develop a pass-rush led by Calais Campbell, Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips, and rookie Chop Robinson. Miami also added longtime Bills safety Jordan Poyer and Commanders cornerback Kendall Fuller to a secondary that already features All-Pro Jalen Ramsey. This isn't just a fantasy football D/ST sleeper — this is a unit that can be a real-life playoff x-factor.
The Bills have won the AFC East four years in a row, but they lost top wideout Stefon Diggs and multiple key defenders this offseason. The Jets have Rodgers back, but he's almost 41 and coming off the most dire injury of his nearly 20-year career. Don't expect Tua and company to finish second for a third straight year — this season is Miami's best chance yet to win the AFC East and go into the playoffs with some South Beach home cooking.