Undisputed super bantamweight champion Naoya Inoue and his next challenger TJ Doheny combine for 44 knockouts in 53 wins. That’s just one of the reasons why few expect their September 3 matchup to go the full 12 rounds at the Ariake Arena in Tokyo.
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Inoue (27-0, 24 KOs) is arguably the hardest pound-for-pound puncher in boxing today. The Japanese superstar hasn’t been extended the distance since his 2019 Fight of the Year triumph over future Hall of Famer Nonito Donaire. He’s currently on an eight-fight knockout streak.
Ireland’s Doheny (26-4, 20 KOs) doesn’t have Inoue’s formidable reputation, but he’s still a knockout puncher. While he’s lost four fights over the past five years, the challenger’s six most recent victories have come by stoppage, four of them inside six rounds.
The Sporting News looks at the chances of Inoue vs. Doheny going the distance.
Can TJ Doheny knock out Naoya Inoue?
Let’s be honest, if Doheny finds a way to beat Naoya Inoue, it would rank as one of the biggest upsets in modern boxing history. Per BetMGM, Doheny is a +1600 underdog and that tells its own story.
However, if Doheny is going to win this fight, then it will be by knockout. If the 37-year-old southpaw outboxed Inoue over 12 rounds and took a decision in Tokyo, that would be an even bigger surprise than a stoppage.
Doheny’s left hand is a quickly loaded punch and can end a fight in a flash. In October, the Irishman blasted the previously undefeated Japhethlee Llamido to the canvas with a left in the opening round and his follow-up assault forced a stoppage.
The problem is that Inoue can take a direct hit. Donaire cracked his right orbital bone in their first fight and hurt him more than once, while Luis Nery had him on the canvas in May. On both occasions, the Japanese boxer-puncher got up to prevail.
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Can Naoya Inoue knock out TJ Doheny?
Doheny is a confident, world-class fighter and he’ll have belief in himself. He’s upset the odds before and he’s a true road warrior, with his last three fights taking place in Japan.
But even though he’s never been stopped, the former IBF champ hasn’t faced a puncher like Inoue before. Doheny was down twice in his unification loss to Daniel Roman in 2019 and, more worryingly, Michael Conlan dropped him with a body shot before winning on points.
Roman and Conlan aren’t in the same dimension as Inoue when it comes to hitting power. If those fighters were able to get Doheny over, then that doesn’t bode well for his chances of making it through 12 rounds with the champion.
Neither Jamie McDonnell nor Juan Carlos Payano, both of whom were former world champions, had ever been stopped before facing Inoue. Both of those fighters succumbed to devastating first-round knockouts.
The prediction here is that “The Monster” attacks the ribcage and puts Doheny down for the count before the midway point.