RBC Heritage expert picks and predictions: Our PGA Pro’s best bets for 2024 TOUR Signature Event

In this betting preview:

• Tournament format breakdown
• Expert picks and predictions
• BetMGM odds to win
• Betting trends from past winners
• Course overview

HILTON HEAD ISLAND, SC — Do you want the good news, or the bad news? Here’s the bad news: Scottie Scheffler looks unstoppable and has nine wins, two PLAYERS Championships, and two green jackets in three years. The good news? All of those wins have come before the second week in April. That gives us all hope we can win a bet this summer against Scheffler! I’m not going to dwell on his performance, mainly because he will probably do the same thing this week at the RBC Heritage.

For the second year in a row, the best of the PGA TOUR are coming to Hilton Head Island, South Carolina to compete for $20 million. Scheffler made his debut at Harbour Town Golf Links a year ago, and proceeded to finish 11th gaining nine strokes on the field. So how will anyone beat him? Well, his wife is pregnant, and she could make the call to the two-time Masters champion to end his recent run. Unfortunately, based upon the way 2024 is going, this baby is going to be born on an off week!

We almost pulled off the trifecta at the Masters. Cameron Young finished T9 and well inside the top 20, Brian Harman went home Friday, and Patrick Reed finished T12. Only Xander Schauffele let us down, finishing eighth instead of taking home the title. For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the RBC winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

RBC Heritage expert picks and predictions

Best bet to win: Ludvig Åberg (+1400 on BetMGM)

The second-hottest golfer on the planet, Åberg is coming into the RBC with seven straight top-25 results and a runner-up finish at the Masters. He led the field in strokes gained T2G at the Valero two weeks ago, and led the Masters in strokes gained putting! The last time he visited the low country, he won the RSM Classic by firing a 61-61 over the weekend. Grab the kid to win before his odds get inside the single digits!

Best head-to-head bet: Will Zalatoris over Jordan Spieth (-120 on DraftKings)

Something just isn’t right with Jordan Spieth. He arrived late to the Masters and looked like his wrist was bothering him again. Not to mention, his form finally seems to have creeped into his psyche even if he is healthy. Will Zalatoris carded the second-lowest round on Sunday at Augusta, and has been very good since late January. Look for both of these trends to continue at a place where you really need to know where your ball is going.

*BET OF THE WEEK*
Cameron Young to finish in the top 20 (+105 on FanDuel)

There’s no shame in going back to the well when you see a player performing. Young now has five top-10s over his past eight major championships. He finished third at the Heritage two years ago, he's in better form, and he knows the course. This is a ball-striker's coliseum — and since Russell Crowe wasn’t available, I’ll take Cam.

RBC Heritage live odds to win

Odds (shorter than +10000) courtesy of BetMGM.

RBC Heritage past winners, betting trends

Harbour Town Golf Links will present this signature field of 69 players with a number of headwinds over 72 holes.

• Ten holes have a bogey rate over 15 percent — only seven have a birdie rate over that same percentage.
   
• Greens are not only guarded by water and sand, but trees as well. Find the wrong side of the fairway and you can easily get blocked out.
   
• Small greens are easily missed, and Dye's disaster-laden green complexes are designed with deep bunkers and steep roll-offs.
   
• The fairways are not only tight — they are also tree-lined. They bend in both directions, and most of them have a penalty area to protect against.

Patience is rewarded at HTGL. Stick to your game plan and follow the successful skills of the last 10 winners and you will get fitted for a tartan jacket on Sunday afternoon. In the last decade, winners gained an average of:

• Two strokes off the tee
• Six strokes on approach
• Three strokes around the green
• Four strokes putting

Iron play always leads the way, but pay attention to your outright selections and their short game. The bunkers here have steps to get in and out! Building a winner takes precise positional skills. Here's my list of the most valuable tartan traits:
 

• Par 4 scoring — 11 holes vary in length from 330 to 473 yards. Each one takes two good shots to score. One of the most proven indicators for success week after week, your winner in South Carolina will be near the top of this list by week's end.
   
• Good drives gained — We all miss the fairway — but when you do, are you still hitting the green? In a week when position off the tee is insanely important, this measurement reigns supreme.
   
• Proximity to the hole — These guys hit a high rate of greens in regulation, but who hits it the closest? When the green size is this small, winning the proximity contest counts.
   
• Birdie or better percentage — There's three par-5s and one reachable par-4. The winning score with decent weather will be in the high teens. Who can keep up? With $20 million in prize money, we need aggressive scorers.
   
• SG:T2G — The catch-all category! Who is hitting it the best from the tee to the green? Well-rounded golfers contend here and OTT, APP, and ARG all count toward this value.

I'm interested in the best approach players with a mid-iron. Nearly 50% of approaches fall between 150-200 yards. Bogeys come easy at HTG, which competitors have the best bogey avoidance rate?  Fitzpatrick won here last year by gaining more on the field avoiding bogeys than making birdies. Each of the par 5s fall between 550-600 yards. Finally, I'm counting around the green and scrambling skill. Guys who are great with a wedge, not only save par, but they make birdies as well.
 
I loved last year when a classic TOUR test received signature status. Seeing a major championship field take on one of the shortest tests on the PGA TOUR is so entertaining. I expect Scottie to be in the mix, but unlike last week even the shorter hitters can contend here. The card is balanced, and I especially like the ball strikers we have. Scheffler had an average approach week at Augusta. If that trend continues, these guys have a great chance to slip by him on Harbour Town’s links.

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RBC Heritage: Harbour Town Golf Links breakdown

No rest for the weary warriors from Augusta National. The PGA TOUR rolls out their fifth Signature Event. Approximately 69 golfers have registered and will play 72 holes of stroke play with no cut, with $20 million on the line and $3.6 million for first place. The strategic Pete Dye design places a huge premium on accuracy, especially off the tee. Unlike the wider fairways of Magnolia Lane, HTGL is tree-lined, sand-covered and characterized by low-country waterways on almost every hole.

I can't say we will be completely dry this week, but the forecast is much better than Augusta. Temperatures will be warm, resting in the low 80s until we feel a chance of rain on Sunday afternoon. We are out on an island, so wind comes with the territory. Thankfully, the breeze predicted is mild and should blow around 10 miles per hour all four days. That’s a welcome reprieve from the wind tunnel we all experienced in Augusta. Of course, we are along the Atlantic coastline, where the weather can change at a moment’s notice. Please make use of this forecast link before making any firm decisions!

Nine of the last 10 winners of the Heritage played in the Masters the previous week. Defending champion Matt Fitzpatrick did last year — and with the field we have, that trend is certain to continue. Prior to being elevated, this event did see some serious long shots win over the last 10 years. The average pre-tournament winner's odds in that time frame were +9600. I’m pretty sure Scottie and signature status is certain to stop that trend.

• The average winning score over the past five editions has been 17 under par.
   
• Over the past 10, the average drops to 15 under par.
   
• In recent years, the cutline average is slightly under par at -0.6.
   
• If we look at the last decade, that average jumps to +1.3 over par.
   
• In many years, this event has been plagued by difficult wind and cold temperatures. This year looks mild — and with a signature field, I expect scoring to be prevalent.

Pete Dye's course measures 7,213 yards for the tournament. The par-71 landscape is one of the tightest driving courses on TOUR. So much so, the field driving distance average is 15 yards less than the PGA TOUR average. Accuracy off the tee exceeds the TOUR standard and GIRs are hard to come by. We built a winning skill set in the outrights discussion, but overall power is not the priority at HTGL.

• The greens are the second-smallest on the PGA TOUR, averaging just 3,700 square feet. That’s roughly half the size of the greens at ANGC.
   
• The field hits them eight percent less than the TOUR average (58% vs 66%).
   
• Players have only 54 bunkers to contend with, but each of the 18 green complexes has at least one.

The details are endless on this Dye design and that’s why it annually is one of the five most predictable courses on TOUR. A good microcosm of the challenge Harbour Town presents can be found on the Par 3's. Each one hovers in length around 200 yards. As a group, they all play to a stroke average over par. Add their stroke averages up, and the total is +0.48. HTGL forces you to hit good iron shots. Even when you do, they aren't always rewarded. Getting up and down around these greens is tough.

There are some great comparison courses to study this week and believe it or not, Scottie hasn’t won on all of them; yet. I love Valspar which has the same putting green surfaces and similar ball striking demands. Sea Island’s RSM classic and Sedgefield apply as well. I’d even throw in Wa’ailae CC. Pure positional golf where course management is the number one skill featured in the outrights section.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 26 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.