Tour Championship expert golf picks and predictions with our PGA Pro’s best bets for the 2024 tournament

In this betting preview:

• Tournament format breakdown
• Expert picks and predictions
• BetMGM odds to win
• Betting trends from past winners
• Course overview

ATLANTA, GA — Lydia Ko’s victory at the AIG Women’s Open marks our third straight year of double-digit wins. Adam Scott came close to our eleventh outright, but alas his putter decided against it. It was tough to leave Castle Pines, but Atlanta awaits and $100 million is on the table. Back to the heat and humidity, at least we have a new golf course to break down. The Tour Championship takes place at historic East Lake Golf Club. Home to Bobby Jones, the lost design of Donald Ross has finally been restored.

We witnessed Andrew Green’s work at Oak Hill last spring for the PGA and Congressional for the KPMG Women’s PGA in 2022. Green also renovated a local facility around the corner from my house. A disciple of Donald Ross' thinking, I have a very good feel for his architecture. Using aerials from the 1940’s, East Lake overhead gave him the vision for what we will see on Thursday.

This preview is just that: a preview. For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Tour Championship, finishing positions, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Tour Championship: Expert picks and predictions

Best bet to win the FedEx Cup: Xander Schauffele (+230 on FanDuel)

In seven trips to East Lake Golf Club, Schauffele has finished with the low gross score three times! Strokes or no strokes, Schauffele has never finished worse than seventh. I know the course has changed, but that will only favor Xander more. Firm greens favor his scrambling ability. Grainy Bermudagrass never works well for Scottie. Two majors and a Cup — let the Player of the Year argument begin!

Best bet to win the 72-hole stroke play: Sam Burns (+2500 on bet365)

There’s a shadow tournament running this week we can wager on. If you remove the starting strokes, we will also have a 72-hole stroke play winner. Burns finished 13th at 3M, a very difficult driving course. He then finished fifth at the FedEx St.Jude, a Bermudagrass putting test. Last week, Sam was the BMW runner-up when he shot 65 on Sunday. A total test of golf in Denver, Burns gained over eight shots on the field. Bring him to another Bermudagrass playground in great form and he’ll take home the gross title.

Best head-to-head bet: Shane Lowry over Sahith Theegala (-120 on DraftKings)

Theegala qualified for the Presidents’ Cup team on points. He has no reason to push this week and that’s good. He has been battling an arm injury and could use the rest. He’s here to play, but I don’t believe he will try to aggravate it. Lowry fits East Lake’s design. An accurate driver, he also excels on approach. As a solid Bermudagrass putter, Lowry can go low on courses like this where after a bad bounce or two, he can get up and down to save par.

Tour Championship: Live odds to win

Odds (+25000 and shorter) courtesy of BetMGM. (Bonus strokes applied)

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Tour Championship: Conditions, winning trends

The Tour Championship is complicated, so let's keep this simple. This is a brand new golf course. As a PGA Professional who has experienced a "grow in," these players will have their hands full. Based upon the course conditions as I see them on property, here are the priorities players will need to focus on in order to score, and contend.

• The greens are rock hard. The field consists of the 30 best players this year. No wraparound points, these guys earned their spot from the Sentry in Kapalua to the BMW in Denver. Watching approach shots, players are struggling to get anything longer than a wedge to stop. And forget it from the Bermudagrass rough. GIRs are going to be a huge commodity. One trait that carries over from the old East Lake GC is long iron approaches. Forty-four percent of iron shots come from 200+. The ability to attack from long range is a skill and one that will help you separate this week.
   
• Many long iron approaches will just bounce through the putting surfaces. I'm definitely boosting Bermudagrass around the green acumen. You'll hear this theme a bunch, but this place has not grown in yet. The lies around the greens are dicey. The rough is long and gnarly and that's better than the tight ones. The approaches feel soft and the grass density is thin. That's a very tough combination. East Lake historically has not been a big short game course, but I would take players who can save shots on Bermudagrass.
   
• Another aspect of the grow in most will miss is the grain. Bermudagrass greens tend to be grainy after years of maturation. Brand new ones have even more grain. Bermudagrass putters will have an edge. Players are going to miss a bunch of putts inside 6'. This may help some of the weaker putters in the field as good flatstick aficionados will also miss a couple. Whoever wins the FedEx Cup or 72-hole stroke play tournament will have earned it with their putter.
   
• Scoring opportunities will be there. The field gained an extra par 5 and the eighth hole was shortened significantly. That's eight more birdie chances for those in good form. I want BoB% players on this course. Bogeys are coming with these firm bounces. Anyone that averages a ton of sub-par scores will have a better chance against the field.
   
• Hitting the fairway was a leading skill in previous Tour Championships. Keeping the ball free from the rough leads to more GIRs. The same holds true this year. Some pundits may allude to the fact more fairway grass was added to the course (+5 acres). Guess what? So was more length. Over 100 yards of driver holes were added to the scorecard. Over the last ten years, winners have gained an average of 3.6 OTT on the field of 30. Include guys who can hit the fairway with some length this week.
   
• My last considerations were Par 4 scoring, still 11 of those. I also want players who can avoid bogeys and when they do miss fairways, miss by a small margin (good drives gained).

Remember, I prefer the 72-hole stroke play tournament. The odds are just too short on the starting strokes side. I listened to the press conferences and watched them all practice. You can devise a number of winning scenarios, but only one really adds up in my mind. Now the trick is how can we maximize our return on an odd tournament week..?

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Tour Championship course overview: Castle Pines Golf Club

Read The Line members know why we win. On-site, PGA expert coverage cannot be replaced. Weeks like this only further enhance our advantage. Watching the season’s best prepare to attack this newly renovated masterpiece is extremely valuable. I have walked the entire course, talked with players and caddies, and spoken with longtime Tour Championship officials. The changes are significant, and really emphasize what Donald did to originally challenge Jones and others, but with a modern twist.

Green added 144 yards and one stroke. The par 71 layout measures 7,490. The fourteenth hole has been lengthened by 60 yards and transitioned to a par 5. The new look is eye-catching. Gone are all of the Bermudagrass hallways of trees and rough. Another clue that Green really gave this a facelift was the overall length. Andrew lengthened 14 holes, but he also shortened three. The most noticeable change is the par 4 eighth hole. The 455 yard brutal par 4 along East Lake is now a 390 yard driv-able theater. The green has been reconfigured and the bunkering a little more emphasized.

All of these changes will really make the players think. This was a bomber's paradise, and although that's still true there are more than a couple examples (like eight) where being well-rounded will outweigh ball speed. Eight holes have water in play and four bunkers were added to make the total 78. This week is a tough one to handicap. Five players start 10 shots behind Scottie Scheffler. After seven wins, THE PLAYERS, a green jacket, and a gold medal, I feel like he should be 10 back! In any event, the FedEx Cup format uses starting strokes. Our card will be limited this week due to the nature of the competition. Most of our bets will be on the 72-hole stroke play side (w/out starting strokes). We won with Viktor last year and look to do it again.

The weather is hot again. Unlike Denver, we have plenty of humidity; Memphis conditions all over again. Heat indexes up over 100 degrees and Bermudagrass almost everywhere. The grow in from the 11 month renovation is “almost” complete. It was a herculean effort to get this far, but the greens look very grainy along with the closely mown surrounds. East Lake was always known for its rough, and it is once again living up to the player's expectations. The wind will blow under 10 mph and there's a chance of storms in the afternoons. I believe the weather will not be much of a factor, but keep an eye on it with our real-time link.

The total purse for these 30 men is $100 million. Twenty-five million to first, the competitors this week have also earned a spot in all four majors next year by being here. Scottie may think this format is "silly," but if he wins $25 million, I doubt he will give it back. Plenty of players have Presidents' Cup aspirations and this is their last proving ground. I love the new walk and sensational views. The fun really kicks off on Wednesday afternoon with the Creator Classic. A 9-hole event pairing popular YouTube golfers in an 8-hole tournament with a shoot-out on 18. I had some fun and posted my ​Power Rankings​ for the event on the RTL website.

Even if you don't care for any of these golfers, I would watch. They are playing the entire back nine and will give you a great preview of what's to come in round one!

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 36 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.