With the top seven seeds in the 2024 NBA Playoffs now set, all that's left for the NBA Play-In Tournament to decide are the last two teams in. Friday's doubleheader will culminate in either the Bulls or Heat claiming the eighth seed in the East and either the Kings or Pelicans punching their ticket to eighth in the West. We'll look over the NBA odds for each of the two Play-In games, and unveil our best bets to advance.
Unfortunately, key injuries will keep both Jimmy Butler and Zion Williamson out of the lineups on Friday. Butler suffered a right MCL injury during the first half of Miami's Play-In loss to Philadelphia while Williamson exited to the lockeroom with three minutes left in the fourth quarter of the Pelicans' loss to the Lakers. Naturally, both games on Friday have a significantly different feel without the two stars suiting up for the Heat and Pelicans, respectively.
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Without Butler, it will be up to Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo to pick up more scoring load to try and offset the Chicago tande of Clutch Player of the Year candidate DeMar DeRozan and Most Improved Player favorite Coby White (7:10 p.m. ET, TNT). Once that game ends, De'Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, and the Kings will look to bounce Brandon Ingram and the Zion-less Pelicans in New Orleans (9:30 p.m., TNT).
Let's get to the NBA Play-in Tournament odds including spread, moneyline, and over/under total for every matchup, and unveil the bets we're making ahead of Friday night's action.
NBA Play-in Tournament odds, betting tips: Spread, best bets for every game
Bulls at Heat (7:10 p.m. ET, TNT)
- Spread: Heat -1.5 (-110) | Bulls +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Heat -125 | Bulls +105
- Total: Over 207.5 (-115) | UNDER 207.5 (-105)
Jimmy Butler did everything in his power to help the Heat get past his former squad in Philadelphia — even playing on a sprained MCL for three quarters — but the Sixers ultimately prevailed late in the fourth and cemented the victory. Now Miami's chances at making a second-straight run to the title game are heavily jeopardized, as Butler's knee will sideline him for at least a few weeks.
That's no bueno for the East's reigning champs. Butler is the heart and soul of this team — the best defender, the undisputed leader, and the go-to scorer. Erik Spoelstra's squad certainly has a "next man up" mentality, and Heat culture is alive and well, but we don't see a Butler-less Miami team getting past DeMar DeRozan, Coby White, Nikola Vucevic, and Alex Caruso.
Chicago has covered four straight spreads, and three of those have been on the road. On the season, the Bulls went 23-18 ATS away from United Center. They also went 2-2 against Miami, and Butler played in all four of those contests. The Heat have failed to cover three straight spreads with Butler sidelined, and we expect that trend to continue on Friday.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Bulls 109, Heat 99 — Chicago wins straight up (+105) and the game goes slightly OVER the total (207.5).
MORE: Latest on Jimmy Butler's injury
Kings at Pelicans (9:30 p.m. ET, TNT)
- Spread: Kings -1.5 (-110) | Pelicans +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Kings -125 | Pelicans +105
- Total: Over 212.5 (-110) | UNDER 212.5 (-110)
Rarely do we see two teams square off five times in the regular season, but the Kings and Pelicans managed to make that happen in 2023-24. Even more rare, New Orleans went a perfect 5-0 against Sacramento in the season series.
The thing about sports: every trend ends eventually. And NOLA owning Sacramento ends on Friday night. Brandon Ingram has not been himself since he returned from a 12-game absence due to a bone bruise in his knee. In fact, Ingram got benched down the stretch in the Pels' first Play-In game against the Lakers.
Ingram's inefficiency put a ton of pressure on the shoulders of Zion Williamson, who suffered a hamstring injury against L.A. and had to leave the game. Now Zion's out Friday, and Willie Green will be looking to Ingram and perennial postseason underachiever CJ McCollum to punch New Orleans' ticket to the playoffs.
It ain't happening. Domantas Sabonis is too much of a load down low for the Zion-less Pelicans, Keegan Murray is too much of a three-point assassin, and De'Aaron Fox has too much of a clutch gene.
Ingram looks like a shell of himself. McCollum can't be relied upon in the playoffs. Jose Alvarado seems to average two turned ankles per game. Jonas Valanciunas can't keep up with the Kings' up-tempo style. Watch for Sacramento's Keon Ellis, Davion Mitchell, and Harrison Barnes to lock up on D and stifle the Pels in the Bayou.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Kings 113, Pelicans 106 — Sacramento wins (-125) and covers (-1.5), with the total going well OVER (212.5).
