The regular season is nearly upon us which, of course, means it's time to talk all things NBA futures — title favorites, MVP front-runners, Rookie of the Year hopefuls and more.
When it comes to futures — where sportsbooks typically clean up on the public — the key to cashing isn't playing favorites, but rather searching for value. Last season in particular, betting ‘chalk’ didn't pay off.
Looking back to the start of the 2021-22 season, sportsbooks initially listed eventual Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes outside the top five at +1400. Nikola Jokic was at +1400 to win MVP — behind seven other stars — even though he had just won the coveted award the prior season! The Celtics were given just 20-1 odds to win the East, while the Warriors were +1000 to win the NBA Finals — well behind the Nets (+230), Lakers (+400), and Bucks (+800). Bets on Barnes, Jokic, Boston, or Golden State would have made for some sweet long-term lottery tickets.
MORE NBA: Who will win the 2022-23 NBA Finals?
With that concept in mind, today we're breaking down our favorite sleeper bets for every major NBA award, statistical leader, and the Finals champion. For this exercise, we will select our favorite player or team outside of the top five odds for each bet. To the chalky Paolo Banchero bettors, or those dreaming of a Celtics-Warriors NBA Finals rematch: keep it moving. You can place your bets right now on Caesars Sportsbook. The rest of us will stick around and discuss where the true value lies.
Good luck, have fun, and be sure to check all of our preseason predictions, previews, and coverage leading up to opening night!
All playoffs, Finals, and season-long odds are from Caesars Sportsbook, while all award props are from Sports Interaction. All sleeper selections are outside the top five odds for each bet.
Top sleepers for NBA MVP
Best bet: Ja Morant, Grizzlies (+896)
The big names (and big men) litter the MVP futures market each preseason, and this year is no exception with Giannis Antetokounmpo (+404), Joel Embiid (+372), Jokic (+667), and Kevin Durant (+630). But above all those behemoths of the basketball world is Luka Doncic (+302), for whom everyone and their mom seems to be placing bets. I say stay away from that chalk, and opt instead for Morant.
Last year's Most Improved Player and All-NBA 2nd-Team selection, Morant was easily the best player on a breakout Grizzlies team that finished 56-26, the second-best record in the NBA. He averaged 27.4 points, 6.7 assists, 5.7 rebounds, and 1.2 steals per game, and shot 49.3 percent from the floor and 34.4 percent from three-point land.
Ultimately, Morant finished seventh in MVP voting, playing just 57 games due to knee and ankle issues.
Prime Derrick Rose vs Ja Morant now?
— NBA New Media ® (@NBANewMedia_) October 4, 2022
Prime D-Rose won an MVP, led his team to the 1 seed, and made it to the ECF. He did this over prime Dwight and prime Bron pic.twitter.com/OLZSFdhwOU
Obviously, some volatility exists here — mostly due to the injuries and the nature of Morant’s physical, aggressive approach (which reminds us of prime Derrick Rose, who won an MVP with the Bulls early in his career). If he can stay healthy enough to play 70-plus games — and the Grizz manage to take another step forward this season under Taylor Jenkins — the former Rookie of the Year and reigning Most Improved Player could easily add MVP to his awards collection.
Honorable mention MVP sleeper bets: Stephen Curry (+982), LeBron James (+1436), Zion Williamson (+1559), Damian Lillard (+3440), Anthony Edwards (+4183)
Best bet among MVP favorites: Joel Embiid (+372) — he gets better each year, and his griping last season might actually help his case. The Nikola Jokic voter fatigue will be real, and it’s highly unlikely he will join Russell, Chamberlain, and Bird as the only players to win three consecutive MVPs.
MORE: Where does Embiid rank among the 30 best NBA players?
Top sleeper for NBA Rookie of the Year
Best bet: Dyson Daniels, Pelicans (+1851)
Admittedly, Rookie of the Year skews towards the favorites. However, every once in a while — like Barnes last season — someone rises from relative obscurity to snatch the hardward.
We really wanted to feature Indy’s Benedict Mathurin here, but he comes in with the fifth-best odds at +726 behind Paolo Banchero (+140), the Kings’ Keegan Murray (+356), the Pistons’ Jaden Ivey (+383), and the Rockets’ Jabari Smith (+424). Thus, we will go with Daniels, who has produced boatloads of buzz in the bayou.
A 6-7 guard with a nearly 7-foot wingspan, Daniels has the size and skills to quickly enter into the Rookie of the Year conversation. His perimeter defense and playmaking abilities have been marquee attractions to the Pelicans’ preseason, and many analysts are beginning to wonder if the Aussie stud will end up New Orleans’ starting point guard this season.
I loved Dyson Daniels' defense & playmaking last night. He's gonna be a fun rookie to watch. pic.twitter.com/52SKlDNCmG
— Steph Noh (@StephNoh) October 5, 2022
Daniels started turning heads with the G-league Ignite last season, averaging 11.3 points, 5.9 rebounds, 4.4 assists, and 1.9 steals per game. But his success in Australia speaks volumes, too. In the 2021 FIBA World Cup (U19), Daniels averaged 14.0 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.6 assists. He was also named MVP of the Waratah League — a professional league commonly known as the “NBL1 East” — and was named Youth Player of the Year.
The Pelicans are a popular darkhorse contender and if Daniels proves invaluable on a winning team while clicking with Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum, it could propel him towards the ROY finish line.
Honorable mention Rookie of the Year sleeper bets: Johnny Davis (+2095), Jalen Duren (+2624), Mark Williams (+2730), Tari Eason (+3730), Walker Kessler (+4314), Christian Koloko (+9090)
Best bet among ROY favorites: Keegan Murray (+356) and Jabari Smith (+424) stand out given their talent and opportunity within their respective offenses. Paolo Banchero (+140) yields minimal value and has a ton of injuries around him on an already-bad team. Jaden Ivey (+383) is a popular pick, but probably gets outshined too much by Cade Cunningham. I’ll go with Murray by a hair — he has looked very impressive early in his Kings career, and could be the third-best scorer on a fringe play-in squad.
Top sleeper for Defensive Player of the Year
Best bet: Evan Mobley, Cavaliers (+1303)
Mobley burst onto the scene in his rookie season, and nearly came away with Rookie of the Year honors. But he got hurt and missed a few weeks late in the season, creating just enough wiggle room for Scottie Barnes to swoop in and steal ROY. Well, Mobley will make up for it this season, stunning the usual suspects — Rudy Gobert, Draymond Green and Giannis Antetokounmpo among others — and taking home Defensive Player of the Year at just 21 years old.
Mobley can defend all five positions and seamlessly cover the high screen-and-roll, rarities for a guy standing 6-11. His footwork and lateral quickness are both awesome, and his rim protection gets better and better with time. He finished the 2021-22 season with 1.8 blocks per game, tied for fifth in the NBA. And with two of the top five rim protectors — Jaren Jackson Jr. and Robert Williams — set to miss 1-3 months, Mobley could become a top-three swatter this season.
Check out this quote-pull from FiveThirtyEight, which explained Mobley’s net defensive impact last season.
“As one of a trio of big men for Cleveland, along with Allen and Markkanen, Mobley has made his biggest mark on defense, helping the Cavs to a No. 4 ranking in defensive efficiency (106.8). When Cleveland’s collection of bigs share the court, its defense allows 102 points per 100 possessions, but that figure climbs to 110.3 when Allen and Markkanen play without Mobley, per NBA Advanced Stats — and its net rating drops by 7.9 points.”
Honorable mention DPOY sleeper bets: Mikal Bridges (+958), Joel Embiid (+1353), Anthony Davis (+1278), Ben Simmons (+1514), Kawhi Leonard (+3229).
Best bet among DPOY favorites: I’d go with a motivated Rudy Gobert (+300), but it’s against my betting religion to pick the guy with multiple DPOYs and the No. 1 odds. And I’d love to pick Robert Williams (+656), but his knee injury could keep him sidelined for a month or two. So, I’ll bet on Giannis Antetokounmpo (+599) to win his second DPOY in four years. Nobody is quite as gifted an inside-outside defender as the Freak.
Top sleeper for NBA Sixth Man of the Year
Best bet: Cameron Johnson, Suns (+2780)
We almost picked Kelly Oubre Jr. of the Hornets here at +1791. But he has a strong chance to start more than half of Charlotte’s games with LaMelo Ball entering the season with an ankle injury, and with Miles Bridges missing the year due to domestic violence allegations. And we love Philly’s De’Anthony Melton (+2894) and Montrezl Harrell (+3906), but the Sixers may cancel each other out. So give us Cam the man, a deadeye three-and-D stud who just seems to get better year in and year out.
Cameron Johnson's Highlight Tape ☀️ 🔥
— NBA Africa (@NBA_Africa) March 5, 2022
38 PTS
9-12 3PT
11-16 FG#NBAAfrica #NBA75 pic.twitter.com/Lu30In7LTp
Johnson finished third in Sixth Man voting last season, behind runaway winner Tyler Herro and veteran Kevin Love. And yet, Johnson sits 14th on this year’s odds board for the NBA's top reserve. That's mostly because starter Jae Crowder demanded a trade, which would more than likely bump Johnson up into the starting five.
But there's a world — a valuable and potentially lucrative world — in which Crowder remains in Phoenix and continues to start ahead of Johnson. The Tar Heel's minutes and points per game have both increased by two each of the past two seasons and he’s a legit threat to finish .50/.40/.90. There aren’t many bench players most GMs would pick ahead of Johnson, and these generous odds (even with Crowder's trade demand) are too good to pass up.
Honorable mention Sixth Man sleeper bets: Spencer Dinwiddie (+1594), Kelly Oubre Jr. (+1791), Bogdan Bogdanovic (+2264), De’Anthony Melton (+2894), Montrezl Harrell (+3906).
Best bet among Sixth Man favorites: Malcolm Brogdon (+848) — assuming the Celtics don’t end up playing small-ball the majority of the year after Robert Williams’ knee procedure, Brogdon seems like a no-brainer here. He’s the most talented bench playmaker in the league, and should work wonders for a deep Celtics team with plenty of inside-outside scoring ability.
Top sleeper for NBA Most Improved Player
Best bet: R.J. Barrett, Knicks (+1671)
This award served as one of the more difficult ones for which to select a sleeper, as dynamic second-year Rockets center Alperen Sengun (+2966) could make some magic happen as Houston’s starting center. But Barrett should have a much higher usage rate, and he should benefit greatly from the Knicks’ offseason addition of Jalen Brunson.
MORE: Where Jalen Brunson actually ranks on the star spectrum
Barrett already took giant leaps forward in his sophomore campaign, improving on his statistical averages as well as his shooting percentages. He could very well be the next third-year breakout small forward, following in the footsteps of MIP winners Jimmy Butler, Paul George, Pascal Siakam, and Brandon Ingram. When he’s on, he can score with the best of them — if New York gets it together and coaches him the right way, Barrett could be an emerging star.
Honorable mention MIP sleeper bets: Alperen Sengun (+2966), Devin Vassell (+2592), Collin Sexton (+3158), Kevin Porter Jr. (+4681).
Best bet among MIP favorites: Tyrese Haliburton (+1104) — Hali has a basketball mind that's wise beyond his years, effortlessly floating around the court making solid plays. His crisp passing and smooth stroke should earn him plenty of attention in his first full season for the rebuilding Pacers.
Top sleeper for NBA Finals champion
Best bet: Philadelphia 76ers (+951)
How in the world are sportsbooks listing Philly outside the top five in NBA Finals odds? That’s completely absurd. This squad won 51 games and made the Eastern Conference semis in a year embattled by Ben Simmons drama, injuries, and a midseason blockbuster that landed them an out-of-shape James Harden. It makes sense that bookies give credit to the defending-champion Warriors and runner-up Celtics (both +575), but those squads endured their fair share of issues this summer. And the Nets (+700)? Their entire identity is an issue.
The Sixers roster the 2021-22 NBA MVP runner-up in Joel Embiid, who completely dominates both sides of the floor. James Harden seems fit and poised for a bounce back season. They have an emerging star in Tyrese Maxey, who just keeps improving. They have a talented tertiary scorer in Tobias Harris, who possesses an underrated inside-outside game. And they added a veteran difference-maker in P.J. Tucker — the 2020s version of Robert Horry — a guy who can space the floor with his corner threes, make big stops, and knock down clutch jumpers.
But as Phil Swift says in promos for Flex-Seal: that’s not all! Philly also enjoys one of the premier perimeter defenders in hoops in Matisse Thybulle, a playmaker and shotmaker off the bench in Shake Milton, a two-way stud in De’Anthony Melton, and a low-post bruiser in Montrezl Harrell. Even Danuel House Jr. could make some noise for this team. The City of Brotherly Love finally has a deep squad again, and it checks off all the boxes a franchise needs to contend for a chip. You can’t find better value on the Finals odds boards.
Honorable mention NBA champion sleeper picks: Phoenix Suns (+667), Denver Nuggets (+1198), Memphis Grizzlies (+1493), Cleveland Cavaliers (+2134), Minnesota Timberwolves (+2255)
Best bet among Finals favorites: I like the Clippers and Bucks at +700 apiece, but it's difficult for me to shy away from the Celtics (+575). They have flaunted the best defense in the league since February, and they plugged any holes that Golden State exposed in the Finals. As long as GM Brad Stevens and interim coach Joe Mazzulla can get their house in order once the Ime Udoka suspension smoke has cleared — and Robert Williams returns to 100 percent before the home stretch — I wouldn't bet any team in the top five over Boston.
Quick-hitters: Best of the rest of the sleepers
Most points per game: Damian Lillard, Blazers (+1772)
Most assists per game: LaMelo Ball, Hornets (+1536)
Most rebounds per game: Jarrett Allen, Cavaliers (+1595)
Most three-pointers made: Trae Young, Hawks (+1807)
Most steals per game: Matisse Thybulle, 76ers (+1955)
Most blocks per game: Mitchell Robinson, Knicks (+915)
Most regular season wins: Grizzlies (+933)
Eastern Conference No. 1 seed: Cavaliers (+1056)
Coach of the Year: J.B. Bickerstaff, Cavaliers (+1051)
