The NBA season has come to a close, and the top six seeds for each conference have been set. Now the NBA Play-In Tournament — taking place between Tuesday and Thursday — will determine the final four teams in the 2024 NBA playoff bracket. We'll look over the NBA odds for every Play-In game, and unveil our best bets to advance.
The star power is real in the Play-In, with plenty of familiar faces trying to win and get in. The loaded Western Conference has LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the Lakers facing off against Zion Williamson's Pelicans, and Steph Curry and the Warriors facing De'Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, and the Kings.
MORE: Updated playoff bracket | Play-In predictions
The Eastern Conference, which has featured more injuries and less parity than the West this season, also has some fantastic matchups. Reigning MVP Joel Embiid and the 76ers square off against former Sixer and reigning Eastern Conference Finals MVP Jimmy Butler, and the Hawks and Bulls will face off in a scrappy matchup of banged-up franchises.
We can't wait for the NBA Play-In Tournament to tip off, and we're ready to lock in some best bets on BetMGM right now. Let's get to the NBA Play-in Tournament odds including spread, moneyline, and over/under total for every matchup, and unveil the bets we're making ahead of the action.
NBA Play-in Tournament odds, betting tips: Spread, best bets for every game
Lakers at Pelicans (7:30 p.m. ET, TNT)
- Spread: Pelicans -1.5 (-105) | Lakers +1.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Pelicans -115 | Lakers -105
- Total: Over 224.5 (-115) | UNDER 224.5 (-105)
The Lakers will only lose this game if they want to lose it, as many believe they should avoid entering the playoffs as the second seed so they can stay away from the same Nuggets who bounced them from the playoffs last year. We're not buying into that, as LeBron and company won't be playing with fire and forcing themselves into a potential single-elimination matchup with Steph Curry and the Warriors.
MORE: Could Lakers losing to Pels be a blessing in disguise?
The Lakers have defeated the Pelicans in three of their four meetings since December and six of the past eight dating back to last season. That includes two wins of 15-plus in New Orleans, one in March of last season and one on Sunday to close out the 2023-24 regular season. With the chips all down and everyone healthy, Bron and Anthony Davis ain't losing to AD's former squad.
We also like the OVER, as it has hit in three straight meetings between L.A. and NOLA. The Pels have Brandon Ingram back, Zion Williamson has been playing very assertive basketball over the past month, and C.J. McCollum is shooting lights-out right now. New Orleans may not win, but it will compete for four quarters. Expect a high-scoring Lakers victory on Tuesday night in the Bayou.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Lakers 121, Pelicans 118 — the Lakers win straight up (-105) and the game cruises to the OVER (224.5).
MORE: Latest on Anthony Davis's back, hip
Warriors at Kings (10 p.m. ET, TNT)
- Spread: Warriors -2.5 (-110) | Kings +2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Warriors -145 | Kings +120
- Total: Over 224.5 (-115) | UNDER 224.5 (-105)
Many will look at the Warriors' past two games against Sacramento, losses in late November and late January, and assume that the higher-seeded Kings are the best bet here. Dive deeper into those games, though — not to mention the recent play of both squads — and you'll see that Golden State should be the best bet to get this dub.
For starters, former Warrior Harrison Barnes hit seven three-pointers in the Kings' last win over Golden State. He averages 1.8 threes per game. In the other Sac-town victory over their in-state rivals, Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk combined to score 42 points. Both those sharpshooters are now injured and unable to play on Tuesday.
The Warriors have won eight of their past 10 games, clearly locked into postseason mode. The Kings have lost seven of their past 11, including an ugly 121-82 loss to the lowly Blazers on the last day of the regular season. Sacramento has gone just 1-5 against teams with winning records since Monk went down. Curry and the pesky Warriors win this one and move on to face the loser of the Lakers-Pelicans game.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Warriors 123, Kings 114 — the Warriors win (-145) and cover (-2.5), with the total sailing OVER (224.5).
Heat at 76ers (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
- Spread: 76ers -4.5 (-105) | Heat +4.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: 76ers -200 | Heat +165
- Total: Over 207.5 (-115) | UNDER 207.5 (-105)
Let's get two facts straight right now: the Heat are not the mighty little eight-seed that they were at this time last year. And the 76ers with Joel Embiid are not your typical seven seed in the East.
Philly has won eight of its past 10 games, a far cry from the 13-27 record the Sixers had in the 40 total games Embiid missed between November and April. The Heat have lost six of their past eight games against playoff or Play-In squads.
Nick Nurse's squad took care of business in its last meeting with Miami, a 109-105 victory in South Beach. It also won its previous matchup with the Heat on March 18, despite Embiid still being sidelined with his knee injury for that one.
Heat culture may still be alive and well, but Erik Spoelstra's team just doesn't have the same kind of magic in a bottle it enjoyed during its improbable run to the Finals last year. The Sixers with Embiid and Tyrese Maxey will simply be too much for this inferior Miami squad.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: 76ers 114, Heat 107 — the Sixers win (-200) and cover (-4.5), and the score goes well OVER the total (207.5).
MORE: Check out Steph Noh's All-NBA picks
Hawks at Bulls (9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
- Spread: Bulls -3.5 (-105) | Hawks +3.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Bulls -155 | Hawks +125
- Total: Over 218.5 (-115) | UNDER 218.5 (-105)
Subjectively, this might be the worst Play-In game since this format was rolled out, but alas we will predict the outcome all the same. Chicago has won six of its past 10 games and covered the spread seven times during that span, while Atlanta has lost six consecutive games and failed to cover seven of its past 10 spreads.
The Bulls can play without Zach LaVine, as they have Clutch Player of the Year candidate DeMar DeRozan, reliable big man Nikola Vucevic, Most Improved Player candidate Coby White, and perennial All-Defense contender Alex Caruso. Yes, Trae Young is back after missing 23 games but the Hawks went 0-3 since he returned to the lineup.
Here's all you need to know about this ugly matchup: Chicago has gone 20-13 when favored to win this season, while Atlanta has gone 12-28 as an underdog. The Hawks have also gone 15-26 on the road this season, and 10-17 ATS as an away underdog. Bet the ATL at your own risk.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Bulls 111, Hawks 105 — Chicago wins (-155) and covers (-3.5), and the game finishes UNDER the total (218.5).
