When fans and bettors think about Steph Curry, they think of postseason heroics, clutch three-pointers, and statistical milestones. That's why betting his over/under player props is so fun — he not only hits a ton of OVER bets, he also makes for an incredibly entertaining watch while in the process of hitting them.
The Warriors take on the familiar-foe Kings in the NBA Play-In Tournament on Tuesday (10 p.m. ET, TNT, Sling). The winner moves on to face the loser of the Lakers-Pelicans game to decide the eighth seed in the West. The loser goes home.
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As most hoop-heads know, the Warriors don't get sent home in mid-April very often. When the stakes elevate, Curry elevates his game. He runs faster, works harder, gets to his spots more quickly, and never takes his foot off the proverbial pedal.
Let's dive into our favorite Stephen Curry player props on BetMGM for Tuesday night's battle between the Warriors and Kings, ranking the props in order by betting value and win probability.
Stephen Curry stats projection: Ranking best props picks
Steph Curry points – OVER 28.5 (-110)
This may seem like a tough prop to navigate, as Curry has bested this total just four times over his past 14 games. However, he has hit 28-plus in four of his past seven — and we all know that the best shooter of all time steps it up big-time in the postseason.
Curry has scored 31-plus points in two of his past three playoff games. He averaged 30.5 points per game in the postseason last year, and he put up points totals of 39 and 37 in the Warriors' last two Play-In games back in 2021. This feels like an easy OVER to us.
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Steph Curry three-pointers — UNDER 4.5 (-115)
Of course, just because we're going for Steph's OVER in points doesn't mean we also need to parlay that with his three-point OVER. Curry three-pointers might be the most overinflated prop in hoops, and it's downright silly to throw a bunch of money on the OVER when we all know Mike Brown's Kings will be doing whatever they can to get him away from his spots outside the arc.
A quick glimpse at Curry's postseason game log reveals that the sharpshooter has failed to reach five treys in five straight playoff games. And while he has enjoyed strong success against Sacramento this season (5.3 threes per game), he also hasn't faced the Kings since underrated perimeter defender Keon Ellis joined their starting lineup.
The absence of Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter may hurt Mike Brown's squad offensively, but it arguably improved the Kings defensively. Ellis and Davion Mitchell should be able to stick with Curry far more effectively than Monk and Huerter have been able to in the past.
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Steph Curry rebounds — OVER 4.5 (-135)
Golden State quietly ranked as the best rebounding team in the Association this season, in large part because every player in the core rotation crashes the boards.
While the bigs battle perennial NBA rebounding leader Domantas Sabonis down low, Curry should sweep in for a number of easy boards. He averaged 6.3 rebounds per game against the Kings this season, so betting on him reaching five on Tuesday seems like a solid choice.
Steph Curry assists — UNDER 5.5 (-145)
One area in which we don't trust Steph to boom is assists. He averaged just 3.8 dimes per game against Sacramento this season, and he has finished with five or fewer assists in four of Golden State's last eight playoff games.
Curry also racked up assist totals of five and three in his lone Play-In Tournament games back in 2021. He won't be looking to create for others for large stretches of Tuesday's game if it's close — he'll be looking to put points on the board.
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Steph Curry turnovers — OVER 2.5 (-130)
When you have the usage rate and offensive expectations of Steph Curry, you also sometimes incur a lot of turnovers. He turned the ball over a whopping seven times his last time out against New Orleans, and he has averaged 3.3 turnovers over his past seven contests.
Sacramento also sits among the top 12 in the NBA in forced turnovers (13.9 per game), and the Kings have forced a whopping 16.7 per game over their past three contests. Like we said, Davion Mitchell and Keon Ellis should be hounding Steph all night — and we wouldn't be surprised in the least if he sees some double-teams. We don't love the value here, but we would go OVER if we needed to play this prop one way or the other.
