Who will win the NBA title?
Its the single-most important question on the eve of the 2024 NBA Playoffs. And while everyone knows the usual suspects — looking at you, Nuggets and Celtics — there is value in considering and weighing things like path, specific matchups, playoff experience and so much more.
Like the NCAA tournament, the odds to win the NBA Finals aren't necessarily a reflection of power ranking the best teams from overall top-to-bottom talent. Let's face it — situations are drastically different for every team in the postseason. The conferences alone present greatly different challenges, never mind the fact that each team's path to the championship round will be much different.
As always, we must assess the value of the listed odds before deciding on which bets, props, or futures to wager on. Our power rankings of the 16 playoff teams' odds to win the 2024 NBA Finals will highlight our favorites to win it all, but also feature our top sleepers and best long shots to make some noise.
Let's get to our 2024 NBA Finals betting power rankings, starting with the best BetMGM odds and top value bets and finishing with the squads we wouldn't even bother touching with a free voucher. Good luck, have fun, and enjoy the playoffs!
Who will win NBA Finals? Ranking every playoff team's championship odds
1. Denver Nuggets (+300)
We get it, it's lame to rank the reigning champions No. 1. But the value with Denver at +300 seems too good to list anywhere but the top, despite the fact that the Celtics just strolled fairly casually into a 62-win record.
Soon-to-be three-time MVP Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets beat Boston both times in their regular-season series, Denver is healthy, and Michael Malone's squad competed for the best possible seed in the loaded Western Conference right up to the final weekend of the regular season.
The "others" have also been great for the Nugs this season. Known postseason assassin Jamal Murray remains one of the most clutch point guards in the NBA. Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon have hit new levels of personal growth from three-point land and the dunker's spot, respectively. This team is ready to make a run at a repeat.
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2. Boston Celtics (+180)
We knew all along that the Celtics would be one of our best bets to win the Finals — but odds this short strip Boston of some betting value. Hopefully you got in on the Green before they shortened up this tight, because an implied win probability of 35.7 percent seems very generous before the playoffs even begin.
We still like these odds better than 14 of the 15 other NBA teams in the bracket. The Celtics went 37-4 at home this season, a feat that has only been done 19 other times in NBA history — and eight of those 19 other teams won championships that season. However, we won't be betting the house on a Finals futures bet that would only net a $90 profit on a $50 wager.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder (+1600)
Is it odd to list the No. 1 seed in a loaded Western Conference as a sleeper?
Normally, yes. But that's exactly what the Thunder's odds to win the Finals suggest as they have the same title odds as the 5-seed.
Where's the respect!? OKC looks healthier, stronger, and deeper than ever, and we're getting 16-to-1 odds!? On a squad that will have home-court throughout the Western Conference Playoffs!? Yeah, we'll take that.
Coach of the Year favorite Mark Daigneault has it all: MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has ice in his veins, Jalen Williams has been an insanely good running mate on both sides of the floor, and Chet Williams holds it down on the interior and outside the arc.
Like Boston, OKC has been stellar on the offensive and defensive ends of the floor. Daigneault always has a plan, and the Thunder never seem to take opponents lightly. They also also have youth, health, and energy on their side, not to mention one of the more underrated perimeter defenders in the NBA in Lu Dort. Don't sleep on this squad!
4. New York Knicks (+4000)
Call us crazy, but we think the Knicks at +4000 represent the fourth-best overall value of any team on the NBA Finals futures board.
This team has gone 20-3 with OG Anunoby active since acquiring the two-way star, and Jalen Brunson's ascent to offensive superstar and undisputed leader has been just what the doctor ordered for New York.
We understand the reservations of oddsmakers and bettors — Julius Randle is a big loss. But Tom Thibodeau's team has a "next man up" mentality, and Thibs seems to keep getting the best of 85 percent of his rotation. Randle also isn't exactly known for his playoff pedigree.
The Knicks can score, rebound, push tempo, and lock down on D. They have a 27-14 record at Madison Square Garden, and they will enjoy home-court advantage over every Eastern Conference foe in the playoffs except Boston. They're our favorite sleeper to win it all.
MORE: Knicks-76ers series betting preview
5. Dallas Mavericks (+1600)
This may seem like too high a ranking for the Mavericks, who always seem to find a way to flounder early in the playoffs.
However, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have hit a groove in Dallas, and the Mavs' midseason acquisitions of Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington helped Jason Kidd's squad win 14 of its last 16 competitive games (Dallas locked into the fifth spot pretty early and decided to rest Luka and Kyrie in its last two games of the season).
It won't be an easy road for the Mavs, who must get past the Clippers and then most likely the Thunder and Nuggets in order to even get to the Finals. But you can't argue with how enticing the value is here.
6. Milwaukee Bucks (+1400)
Giannis Antetokounmpo's calf injury has helped make Milwaukee into one of the higher-value Finals bets on the board.
Even if Giannis misses the first couple games against Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers in the first round, the Bucks should be able to get by Indiana with Damian Lillard, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, and Bobby Portis.
And we all know what kind of noise Milwaukee can make in the postseason once Giannis returns. The Bucks went 31-11 at home this season, so we can't possibly list them any lower than sixth on our championship odds rankings.
Could they lose in the first round? Of course. But nobody will be shocked if the Bucks survive Antetokounmpo's absence and then ride their two-time MVP all the way to the Finals.
MORE: Giannis injury puts Bucks in tough spot ahead of playoffs
7. Minnesota Timberwolves (+2000)
The Wolves were the best defense in the NBA all season, and Anthony Edwards' continually-blossoming offensive abilities launched him into the MVP conversation late in the season after Karl-Anthony Towns got hurt.
Now KAT's back, and Minnesota has home-court advantage over all but two Western Conference foes in the postseason after going 30-11 at Fiserv Forum this season. If Chris Finch's team can execute in the fourth quarter, it can easily make a run at the title.
MORE: Wolves-Suns series betting preview
8. Phoenix Suns (+1800)
Phoenix has arguably the most talented offensive trio in the sport in Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal. Frank Vogel's squad also has a strong rebounding presence thanks to Jusuf Nurkic, and Grayson Allen led the NBA in three-point shooting this season.
If the Suns can stay healthy and remain focused, they have a shot to get back to the Finals and contend for a championship for the second time in four years.
9. Los Angeles Clippers (+1300)
The Clippers have been a popular NBA Finals bet all season, thanks in large part to the star power they wield with Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, James Harden, and Russell Westbrook. But their odds lengthened from +800 to +1300 recently due to the health of Kawhi, the Clips' quiet leader and undisputed go-to player in clutch situations.
With question marks surrounding Kawhi's knee — and our inability to trust PG13, Beard, and Russ in the postseason — we don't see much value in betting the Clippers at +1300 to win it all.
10. Los Angeles Lakers (+2500)
The Lakers' odds to win the Finals shortened from +3500 when they leapfrogged the Kings in the standings and then beat the Pelicans in the Play-In Tournament to secure the seventh seed.
However, they won the undesirable opportunity to face the Nuggets, who have beat them eight straight times and 10 of the past 13 times they have met since Valentine's Day 2021. It's fair to wonder how high they'd be on our list if they instead were going up against OKC in the opening round.
It's always tough to count out LeBron James and Anthony Davis, but we're pretty close to counting them out this time around.
MORE: Lakers-Nuggets series betting preview
11. Philadelphia 76ers (+1400)
After seeing Philly struggle to get past Miami in the Play-In Tournament despite Jimmy Butler playing three-quarters of the game with a sprained MCL, we're not buying into the Sixers to go all the way. If teams can contain Tyrese Maxey, they can beat Philadelphia.
JoJo just flat-out does not look good out there — he's either not fully recovered from his meniscus surgery or completely out of shape due to the surgery. Either way, we have a tough time seeing Philadelphia get out of the first round, never mind winning the East or the NBA Finals.
MORE: Paul Reed says Sixers wanted 'easier' matchup vs. Knicks
12. Orlando Magic (+20000)
From a pure value play, the Magic at +20000 yield more value than many of the teams in the 2024 playoff pool. Jamahl Mosley has elevated Orlando's defense to one of the best in the NBA, and Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero pack plenty of offensive punch.
There's just one problem: we just don't like the young Magic's chances at getting past the Celtics in the second round — never mind winning it all — so we can't list them much higher than this point in the rankings.
13. Cleveland Cavaliers (+5000)
Another team struggling with injuries this season, Cleveland enters the postseason having lost nine of its past 14 games. Donovan Mitchell has also struggled to win in the postseason for most of his career, and players like Darius Garland and Evan Mobley have little to no playoff experience. These odds might seem tempting, but the Cavs are a fade.
14. Miami Heat (+6600)
Heat culture is great and all, but without Jimmy Butler the culture will be seriously lacking. We could never list Erik Spoelstra's team lower than this — especially after Miami's improbable run to the Finals last year — but a lot has changed since that Cinderella story.
MORE: The latest on Jimmy Butler's injury
15. Indiana Pacers (+10000)
Tyrese Haliburton and the high-flying Pacers have surprised us before — they almost messed around and won the inaugural NBA Cup (formerly known as the In-Season Tournament) earlier this season, and they led the NBA in scoring this season. But a path that includes the Bucks and most likely the Knicks and Celtics makes Indy a tough team to stake money on.
16. New Orleans Pelicans (+15000)
No Zion, no bet. We love what Willie Green has done with this NOLA squad, but CJ McCollum is allergic to clutch shots in the postseason and Brandon Ingram still doesn't look right physically since coming back from injury. With Zion sidelined, don't go there, folks.
