After their enthralling match away to Galatasaray last time out in the Champions League, Manchester United's chances of reaching the knockout rounds of the competition this season remain in the balance.
A 3-3 draw in Istanbul, after a match in which United twice held two-goal leads, means that they currently occupy bottom spot in Group A through five games. They've won only one of those five matches, but yet, amazingly, they can still qualify.
The failure to hold onto their lead in Turkey reflected their previous outing away to Copenhagen: after leading 2-0 in the first half, Erik ten Hag's side eventually fell to a 4-3 defeat in the Danish capital following Marcus Rashford's red card.
That leaves one final match at home to Bayern Munich left for United to turn around their fortunes and reach the Round of 16 stage. But it's not entirely in their own hands.
MORE: UEFA Champions League group stage standings, results, schedule, and fixtures for 2023/24
Will Man United qualify for Champions League knockout stage?
Despite many predicting Manchester United to easily finish in the top two spots in Champions League Group A during their 2023/24 campaign, the famous English side have found the going extremely tough.
Losses to Bayern Munich and Copenhagen away from home and Galatasaray at Old Trafford saw the English side slump to bottom spot in the standings ahead of matchday five. A defeat away to Galatasaray would have seen them eliminated; a draw means they can still progress, unless Copenhagen defeat Bayern.
As it stands, Copenhagen, Galatasaray and Manchester United are all in with a shot of making the Round of 16 behind the German champions.
There's only one permutation for the Red Devils, they simply have to beat Bayern at Old Trafford and hope that Copenhagen and Galatasaray draw in the Danish capital. If either of those sides win, Untied cannot qualify regardless of their own result in Manchester.
According to UEFA, who reviewed previous Champions League seasons to create a probability rating, United had a 22% chance of reaching the knockout phase after three games. The last team to go through with three points at the halfway stage of the group phase was Bayer Leverkusen in 2016/17.
Group A
| Team | GP | W | D | L | GD | P |
| Bayern Munich (Q) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| Copenhagen | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| Galatasaray | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| Man United | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
What happens if Man Utd finish third in their Champions League group stage?
At present in 2023/24, UEFA has three European competitions that teams participate within: the Champions League, the Europa League and the Europa Conference League.
The Champions League is the most prestigious of the three tournaments with some of the biggest clubs in European football qualifying for the competition each season, including Manchester United this time around.
In the UCL group stage in its current format, the best two sides who finish first and second progress to the knockout rounds of the tournament but if a team finishes third in the group, they are then demoted to the Europa League instead.
Therefore, if the Red Devils finish in third spot in Group A this season, they will then join the Europa League for the knockout-round playoffs with victory in that tie seeing them reach the Round of 16 stage.
Last season, United were on the opposite side and after finishing second in their Europa League group they had to face Barcelona (who dropped out of the Champions League) in the Europa League playoffs before continuing into the Round of 16.
When did Man United last fail to reach Champions League knockout stage?
Although Manchester United remain one of England's most famous and decorated clubs, they've very much struggled in the Champions League over the past decade.
That remains in sharp contrast to both the 1998/99 and 2007/08 seasons when the Red Devils lifted the famous trophy under former manager Sir Alex Ferguson, who also took them to finals in 2009 and 2011. The club also won the competition back in 1967/68 when it was named the European Cup.
Unfortunately for United fans this time around, their side remains in trouble and could fail to even make it out of the group stage. Since the competition was rebranded as the Champions League back before the 1993/94 season, that has happened five times before to the Premier League outfit with the last of those coming in their 2020/21 campaign when they were dumped out of their group by PSG and RB Leipzig.
Man United's Europa League record
Despite their prior glory of becoming the first English side to win the European Cup back in 1968 with victory over Benfica and the modern Champions League in 1999 against Bayern Munich, United have actually enjoyed more success in the Europa League across recent seasons — European football's second tier competition.
Their first direct qualification for the competition, via a Premier League finish, subsequently resulted in Jose Mourinho's side winning the 2017 final against Ajax thanks to goals from Paul Pogba and Henrikh Mkhitaryan in a solid 2-0 victory.
Since then, United have reached the semifinals and final of the competition, in 2020 and 2021 respectively, with Sevilla knocking them out at the semifinal stage in 2020 and Villarreal winning the 2022 final on penalties. Last season they were again dumped out by Sevilla in the quarterfinals.
| Season | Stage Reached | Eliminated by |
|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | Quarterfinals | Sevilla |
| 2020/21 | Final | Villarreal |
| 2019/20 | Semifinals | Sevilla |
| 2016/17 | Final | Winners |
| 2015/16 | Round of 16 | Liverpool |
| 2011/12 | Round of 16 | Athletic Bilbao |