AT&T Byron Nelson 2023 betting guide: PGA pro handicaps the tournament, breaks down how to win every bet in Dallas

The art of scoring will be on full display in McKinney, Texas this weekend when the PGA TOUR travels to the AT&T Byron Nelson. Another event lost on the 2023 schedule, players are traveling from North Carolina through Texas to New York. That probably explains why only 11 of the top 50 in the OWGR are competing. Of those at the top of the odds board, how many will be focused on the task at hand and how many will be looking ahead? We will discuss the odds, course conditions, and winning traits for this Texas Tournament, and ultimately reveal our best bets. 

One completely focused on this tournament is KH “TPC” Lee who is going for his third Byron Nelson title in as many years. Lee went a combined 51 under par in those two wins and exhibits exactly what it takes to win at TPC Craig Ranch; a wide variety of scoring skills. We haven’t seen a true birdiefest on TOUR since January. When scoring becomes the primary skill needed to win, the outright field generally opens up. Lee was a pre-tournament +20000 (200-1) in 2021 and a remarkable +10000 (100-1) when he repeated.

Showing very little form coming into the 2022 tournament, Lee held off Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, and Hideki Matsuyama en route to a second title. We can find plenty of talent in that lower-middle betting tier on the board. I’ll break down below what it takes to finish a tournament in the mid-20s under par. Right now, let’s take a look at the odds for the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, discuss the conditions these competitors will face, and get to our best bets and predictions.

AT&T Byron Nelson 2023: Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings and DraftKings Nation

AT&T Byron Nelson: Course conditions

I’m not going to sugar-coat this, the weather looks awful this week. Any player who is in the 105th PGA Championship must be kicking themselves for coming down here. The Dallas region has received over two inches of rain in the span of the last week to 10 days, and two more inches have been projected over the four tournament days as well. The forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-80s — and considering the storms predicted, we are lucky the wind should only blow in the mid-teens.

TPC Craig Ranch is our fourth 7,400-plus yard course these guys have faced in as many weeks. Add a little wet weather and the greens will become dart boards. Many say it will get longer, but the truth is, soft conditions make it easier to hit your target. Balls will stay in the fairway, and the green targets will become dart boards. The course is a unique design with Rowlett Creek running through the property. More than a wide stream, water comes into play on 15 of the 18 holes.

As if that extended penalty area wasn’t enough, try avoiding the 83 bunkers. Funny thing is, these players generally all do! With the sixth-widest fairways on TOUR, they just bomb away and then attack with their iron game. I can’t imagine a more polar-opposite test leading up to Oak Hill’s East Course, the venue for next week’s PGA event.

Texas has faced a colder than usual winter, and as a result there are some sparse areas throughout. It's another opportunity for these guys to swing away with confidence. With so little penalty to curtail any length, scoring becomes the primary skill set.

AT&T Byron Nelson: The art of making birdies

When it comes to making birdies and eagles on the PGA TOUR, players can accomplish going under par in a variety of ways. Most just look at the skill set of bombing it off the tee and hitting laser-like irons to their target. As the saying goes, these guys are good and watching a leaderboard fill up in the final nine holes with low scores is exciting.

To contend and get there, a player must be able to create birdies in more than one way. The basic scoring method comes from great putting. KH Lee gained an average four strokes on the greens in his two wins. Start making four or five 10-15-foot putts per round, and you’ll lower your score quite quickly. I love taking good putters on a course where flat-stick talent is rewarded.

Attacking with your long approaches is another significant scoring opportunity. Getting close to the hole on a par-5 in two shots or any of the three 200-plus yard par-3s in one will help separates contenders from the field. When you have to birdie 40 percent of the holes you play, capitalizing on the ones where others cannot is key.

The driver can be a scoring club as well. TPC Craig Ranch has three par-5s and two short par-4s. Get that ball as close to the green from the tee box and it is a considerable scoring advantage. Those five holes have a birdie rate over 35 percent, and the more length and accuracy players have only increases that average.

The last and most important piece of scoring skill needed to win this course is wedge play. Pitching and short iron approach play helps convert from 125 yards and in. The best players in the world all can score at will from this range. Amateurs wonder how these guys average five or more birdies a round under TOUR conditions. The answer is simple, learn to get the ball extremely close to the hole every time you have a wedge in your hand.

Looking at the odds board(s), collecting a combination of these skills isn’t easy. Where some are great with wedges, their long iron acumen is off. Great drivers aren’t always great putters. To create opportunities and convert takes talent and recent form. Our best bets of the week are a combination of both.

AT&T Byron Nelson: Best Bets

Last week was an exciting one at Read The Line. We predicted Wyndham Clark to win the Wells Fargo Championship at +7500 — our fourth outright prediction of 2023! If you haven’t already subscribed to our newsletter, you should check it out. Feel free to start with the free version, but don’t be surprised if you get hooked. Something about winning makes it infectious. 

With that being said, let's carry our momentum over to the Byron Nelson.

All odds are from DraftKings

Best bet H2H: Stephan Jaeger over Taylor Montgomery (-120)

I’m not sure what happened to Taylor Montgomery at Torrey Pines, but since then he has missed the cut in four of seven starts. Approach play seems to be the biggest problem, losing strokes in seven of his last eight tournaments. Stephan Jaeger on the other hand continues to play consistently. In his last ten starts he’s gaining an average of four strokes against the field T2G.

Best bet to finish in the Top 20: Hideki Matsuyama (+100)

Hideki Matsuyama has serious scoring potential. He’s one of the few who can get hot in this field and stay close to Scottie Scheffler. The reason he’s so dangerous is his ability to use any of the birdie methods listed above to attack. Even money to get him inside the top 20 after a T3 here last year and some stellar recent form makes great sense for a placement win.

Best bet to finish in the Top 20: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+220)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is one of the elite opportunity guys in this field. His proximity on approach creates makeable birdie putts. Better than a large majority of those competing, he converts them. His putter has been on fire in his last three starts and that is a great sign for this birdie contest. This week is far from a popularity contest. Grab these guys who can really go low when course difficulty drops. Bezuidenhout won’t win you the Masters, but in a situation like this he will contend and land in the top 20.

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering LPGA and PGA TOUR winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

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