Arnold Palmer Invitational expert picks and predictions with our PGA pro’s best bets for the 2024 golf tournament

In this betting preview:

• Tournament format breakdown
• Expert picks and predictions
• BetMGM odds to win
• Winning traits, past trends
• Course overview

ORLANDO, FL — I always believed Bay Hill week marked the official start of the march to Augusta National Golf Club and the Masters. Just six weeks away, the field of 69 elite players who have descended upon Orlando all have one thing on their mind: win this week and get ready for Magnolia Lane. The Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard is the next signature event on the PGA TOUR.

We keep getting non-”signature” winners every Sunday, and I believe that trend will stop at Mr. Palmer’s place. It’s very tough to win on the PGA TOUR, and the 2024 winners are almost making it look easy. Long shots are grabbing the lead and not letting go. Watching the world’s best warm up on the practice tee, I think the two weeks away from action served as a great reset for some of the names near the top.

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Arnold Palmer Invitational winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Arnold Palmer Invitational expert picks and predictions

Best bet to win: Patrick Cantlay (+1800 on FanDuel)

I walked a bunch of holes with Patrick Cantlay on the west coast. He really impressed me, and he looks ready to put together a career year. In his rookie API start a year ago, he finished fourth. The main reason why is the fit.

Cantlay’s long game is perfectly suited to the challenges of Mr. Palmer’s test. Here’s an edge: Patrick is ranked first in Round 1 scoring in 2024. Watch him jump out to an early lead on Thursday, like Riviera, and hold off the charge when the wind really blows this weekend.

Best bet for top-20 finish: Cameron Young (+100 on DraftKings)

Arnold Palmer is Wake Forest’s most famous alumni, but Cam Young at least makes the short list. With outright attention on Young, this is a great cash spot to see him finish inside the top 20.

Even money to beat two-thirds of the field coming off a fourth place at PGA National, and at a venue that means something extra to the fellow Demon Deacon? It seems almost too good to be true.

*BET OF THE WEEK*
Top-30 finish: Matthieu Pavon (+105 on DraftKings)

Matthieu Pavon is one of the hottest players on TOUR. In 2024, Pavon already has finishes at seventh, 39th, first, third, and 28th. Those results are based upon gaining an average of eight strokes per start on the field.

Bermudagrass happens to be Pavon's best putting surface — and with all of the attention on the elite players, don’t be surprised to see Matthieu sneak into the mix and contend again.

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Arnold Palmer Invitational odds to win

Outright odds to win (+15000 and shorter) courtesy of BetMGM.

Arnold Palmer Invitational past winners betting trends

The elite players of the PGA TOUR are fed up. They are done with the politics, the persistent questioning, and most of all their underwhelming play. Walking the practice tee, it feels like a major championship. It’s quiet and all business. Based upon my perspective, I don’t feel as if this atmosphere will help many of the upper-echelon golfers get it back together. The anxiety just keeps building, and with it opens up room for middle-tier talent  on the TOUR to win.

To conquer Bay Hill, you need to follow through on the following skills:

• Palmer’s Invitational requires power. Bombers have a definite advantage here, as evidenced by recent winners Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Bryson DeChambeau.
   
• Rory’s record here is incredible. Of his nine starts, he has finished inside the top 30 in each one. Over the last seven, he has finished inside the top 13...and he won it all in 2018!
   
• The rough is similar to PGA National. It is not nearly as dense as it was a year ago. I’m favoring length over accuracy off the tee. Throw it as far down there as you can and play from there.
   
• Seven of the last 10 winners separated themselves on approach from 175 yards or more. Five of them from 200-plus yards! Long-iron approach play is one key to winning, but even more important is how high you hit those long approaches. Soft conditions will help a little, but keeping it close from 205 is a skill that the best possess. Winners gained five strokes on the field with their iron game the year they won, and those biggest gains were almost entirely from long range.
   
• For having large greens, players miss a bunch of them at Bay Hill. The rain will give you some help — but the better you are at collecting greens in regulation, the more you will score. Those who do miss will need to scramble. You won’t see this show up on the strokes gained charts, but short game can help you in multiple ways at Bay Hill. Scoring around the short par-4s with your wedges, par-5 scoring, and saving plenty of pars.
   
• I have weighed bogey avoidance higher than BoB% this week. That does not happen very often (if at all) outside of majors.
   
• Sand play always comes into the equation for the contenders on Sunday. Our outrights and best bets will be more than capable at the beach.
   
• Bay Hill is a quirky place to putt. The greens are some of the smoothest in Florida — but having played there so many times, I could never quite get comfortable. I think Mr. Palmer was always massaging them. Even the members of Isleworth who belonged to both clubs would consistently remark on the subtle complexity of the Champion and Challenger putting surfaces.
   
• You don't need to be a great putter to win here. More importantly, you don’t even need a strong resumé on Bermudagrass. Are you trending toward a good week with the flat-stick? That’s my main concern.
   
• I looked through the various par-scoring records. Winners gain the most on par-4s, which makes sense. There are more opportunities, and it's definitely worth giving it some weight.
   
• Digging deeper, winners gain almost twice their advantage on the field in strokes gained on the par-3s as compared to the par-5s.
   
• Course history counts around Mr. Palmer’s place. Leaderboards are littered with the same players over the past decade.

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Arnold Palmer Invitational: Bay Hill course break down

From years of experience playing and watching this tournament on property, I believe that Bay Hill is a very predictable golf course. Here's the main reason why: seven holes basically repeat themselves throughout the layout. For example, we start with a sharp dogleg on No. 1. There's a sharp dogleg on 10. Three plays as a dogleg left around water, and four is a long, straight uphill par-5. Eleven is a dogleg left around water, and 12 is a straight-uphill par-5. This happens again and again around the routing. The pivotal point here is that if you play some of the template holes at Bay Hill, you can basically play them all.

• The Champion/Challenger layout displays a par-72 scorecard covering 7,466 yards.
• Among 10 tough par-4s, half of them measure over 450 yards.
• The longest set of par-3s on TOUR represent one of the primary scoring issues at Bay Hill.
• Over the past five years, the average winning score has been 8 under par.
• With weather conditions similar across all of Florida, I still see the softer green conditions and struggling turf in Orlando. We saw quite vividly how it affected scoring at PGA National, and I see that trend continuing.
• Compound those conditions with rain over the past couple of days and we have 18 dart-boards ready for attack in Orlando.

Mr. Palmer’s kingdom is a power player's paradise. With the fourth-largest greens on TOUR, the field has larger than average targets. The trouble is, Bay Hill puts pressure on every shot. Thankfully, like last week those firm and fast conditions do not exist this year. Nearly two inches of rain have fallen since I arrived Monday, and more came on Tuesday. Accuracy now becomes a huge advantage, as we won’t see the Bay Hill bounce in this edition. Eight bunkers surround the landing areas, and six different penalty areas come into play on nine different holes.

We have a Bermudagrass putting surface again, but the greens at Bay Hill use a hybrid strain that is very smooth. You won’t see nearly as much grain influence the roll — and that’s why of all the Florida venues, I weigh Bermudagrass the least in the API. Power has always been an influencing factor to contend at Bay Hill, and the soft, wet conditions should matter even more. Over 45 percent of approach shots are played from 175 yards or longer.

Just like PGA National’s Champion Course, we must expect some serious scoring volatility. Eagle through double-bogey is definitely in play across every hole. Seven holes have a birdie rate of over 15 percent. The four par-5s average a 38 percent birdie rate, while the remaining 14 holes average just 12 percent. Eleven holes have a bogey rate over 15 percent, and all four par-3s play over par for the week.

We have seen some unbelievable finishes here over the years. Based upon what I’m seeing on the practice tee, we should be in store for a fantastic finish once again!