FedEx St. Jude Championship: “Playoffs!”
If you thought the cut to the top 70 for the FedEx Cup playoffs was intense, this weekend will blow you away. For the average, mid-tier player, staying inside the top 125 for next January is not difficult. The real cut comes when the PGA TOUR reduces the number from 70 to 50 for the BMW Championship. Those top 50 represent the designated few for next season. Imagine a guy like Alex Smalley teetering on that cut line. Advance to the BMW for Round 2 and $20 million dollar purses become the norm.
The playoffs have meaning for status and reward. JT Poston’s drama in the end was interesting, but he is a major winner. He has guaranteed status for 2024. Many of these players in the 40-70 range can change their career with one more great week. To advance, they will need to conquer TPC Southwind, the host venue for the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
The par-70 layout covers 7,243 yards on the scorecard. Seventy-five bunkers can be found throughout the course and 11 holes bring water into play. Ten holes have a bogey rate of over 15 percent, and the average winning score for the last 10 winners is 14 under par. This is not your regular TPC birdiefest. The field will need to put (and keep) the ball in play to grab a large piece of the $20 million purse. With over three million bucks for first place, the best of the best from 2023 are all here.
Memphis will be hot and humid. Rain has drenched the region over the last month. More than 12 inches of rain have soaked the course and will ensure soft conditions. Another inch is expected, along with temperatures in the 90s during the event. The ball will be flying from tee to green in the heat and heavy air. Similar to Colonial, Innisbrook, and PGA National, the course has small (4,300 sq/ft) greens and Bermudagrass.
TPC Southwind has hosted the St. Jude since 1989. In 2019, it evolved into a WGC event and now it is a playoff site. It never hurts to have the PGA TOUR’s biggest sponsor as your next-door neighbor. Yes, FedEx’s world headquarters surround Southwind. All the more reason we need to deliver at Read The Line this week.
Wyndham Championship: Scorecard
JT Poston winner Wyndham (+3000) ❌ (finished 7th)
Chesson Hadley top 40 finish (+150) ✅
H2H Alex Smalley over Justin Thomas (-110) ❌
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FedEx St. Jude Championship 2023: Outright Odds
Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook
| Player | Odds | Top 5 | Top 10 |
| Scottie Scheffler | +600 | +150 | −150 |
| Jon Rahm | +800 | +190 | −110 |
| Rory McIlroy | +850 | +200 | −105 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +1400 | +330 | +150 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1800 | +360 | +175 |
| Viktor Hovland | +2000 | +400 | +190 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | +2200 | +500 | +220 |
| Collin Morikawa | +2200 | +500 | +230 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2500 | +550 | +240 |
| Tony Finau | +2800 | +600 | +260 |
| Wyndham Clark | +3000 | +600 | +280 |
| Rickie Fowler | +3000 | +600 | +260 |
| Max Homa | +3000 | +650 | +280 |
| Jordan Spieth | +3000 | +600 | +275 |
| Jason Day | +3000 | +600 | +275 |
| Tom Kim | +3500 | +800 | +330 |
| Sam Burns | +3500 | +750 | +320 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +3500 | +650 | +280 |
| Cameron Young | +3500 | +700 | +320 |
| Brian Harman | +3500 | +750 | +320 |
| Russell Henley | +4000 | +850 | +360 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +4000 | +800 | +330 |
| Sungjae Im | +4500 | +900 | +400 |
| Sepp Straka | +5000 | +1000 | +400 |
| J.T. Poston | +5500 | +1000 | +450 |
| Corey Conners | +6000 | +1100 | +450 |
| Byeong Hun An | +6000 | +1100 | +450 |
| Keegan Bradley | +6500 | +1200 | +500 |
| Justin Rose | +6500 | +1200 | +500 |
| Cam Davis | +6500 | +1200 | +500 |
| Si Woo Kim | +7000 | +1200 | +500 |
| Lee Hodges | +7000 | +1400 | +550 |
| Harris English | +7500 | +1400 | +550 |
| Denny McCarthy | +7500 | +1400 | +550 |
| Lucas Glover | +8000 | +1400 | +550 |
| Keith Mitchell | +8000 | +1600 | +600 |
| Emiliano Grillo | +8000 | +1600 | +600 |
| Stephan Jaeger | +9000 | +1600 | +650 |
| Sahith Theegala | +9000 | +1600 | +700 |
| Aaron Rai | +9000 | +1600 | +600 |
| Taylor Moore | +10000 | +1800 | +700 |
| Brendon Todd | +10000 | +2000 | +750 |
| Adam Svensson | +10000 | +1800 | +750 |
| Thomas Detry | +11000 | +2200 | +850 |
| Seamus Power | +11000 | +2200 | +850 |
| Eric Cole | +11000 | +2200 | +850 |
| Andrew Putnam | +11000 | +2000 | +800 |
| Adam Hadwin | +11000 | +2000 | +800 |
| Matt Kuchar | +13000 | +2500 | +900 |
| J.J. Spaun | +13000 | +2500 | +900 |
| Chris Kirk | +13000 | +2200 | +850 |
| Beau Hossler | +13000 | +2500 | +900 |
| Alex Smalley | +13000 | +2200 | +900 |
| Vincent Norrman | +15000 | +3000 | +1100 |
| Patrick Rodgers | +15000 | +2500 | +1000 |
| Nick Hardy | +15000 | +2800 | +1000 |
| Kurt Kitayama | +15000 | +2800 | +1000 |
| Tom Hoge | +18000 | +3000 | +1100 |
| Nick Taylor | +18000 | +3500 | +1200 |
| Mark Hubbard | +18000 | +3000 | +1100 |
| Adam Schenk | +18000 | +3500 | +1200 |
| Sam Stevens | +20000 | +3500 | +1200 |
| Davis Riley | +20000 | +3500 | +1200 |
| Taylor Montgomery | +25000 | +4500 | +1600 |
| Hayden Buckley | +25000 | +4000 | +1400 |
| Brandon Wu | +25000 | +4000 | +1400 |
| Ben Griffin | +25000 | +4000 | +1400 |
| Sam Ryder | +30000 | +4500 | +1600 |
| Matt NeSmith | +30000 | +5000 | +1800 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | +30000 | +5000 | +1600 |
FedEx St. Jude Championship 2023: Rock and roll
TPC Southwind has some of the narrowest fairways on the PGA TOUR. Getting the ball in those landing areas is paramount to contending at the St. Jude, followed by an excellent iron game. The last five winners have gained an average of seven strokes on the field with their approach play. Great driving and iron play — sounds like most TOUR stops. Golfers with a combination of both skills serve as the true contenders.
Southwind plays host to 12 par-4s. Seven of the 12 stretch over 450 yards. The par-4s represent two-thirds of the scoring at Southwind. Those who gain on their competitors with the lowest par-4 aggregate total and will find themselves in position to win on Sunday. TPC Southwind also allows players to make putts. Statistically one of the better places to convert birdie chances, good putters will distance themselves here.
One of the ways to find those fairways is by working the ball left to right off the tee. Past champions such as Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, and Daniel Berger are strict faders of the ball. Their success stems from hitting a ton of fairways. By putting the ball in play, the course gets shorter and the mid-iron game takes over. Of course, 11 holes with water will catch players’ attention. Ten holes at TPC Southwind have a bogey rate over 15 percent. Birdies will be crucial, because mistakes will happen.
You need to be a “major” player to succeed at Southwind. The course demands great ball-striking and a fantastic flatstick. The best on property have been some of the biggest names in the game over the past five years. WGCs and FedEx playoffs will do that. Bring out the best and the cream rises to the top at a venue where elite ball-strikers succeed.
FedEx St. Jude Championship 2023: Another Wyn!
Best bet to win: Wyndham Clark (+3500 on BetMGM)
Watch out for Wyndham Clark. TPC Southwind sets up perfect for Wyndham. Who could forget that shot tracer on the 72nd hole at LACC? Memphis is a faders (left to right ball flight) paradise. Clark also ranks within the top 10 in par-4 scoring and bogey avoidance. His unbelievable short game and infamous putter get it done. Over his last 10 starts, Wyndham is winning by gaining 8 shots against the field, and his strongest gains have come on approach. The U.S. Open celebration is complete, and I think Clark is about to get back to business with a playoff win.
FedEx St. Jude Championship 2023: Top 20 play
To finish in the Top 20: Sam Burns (+120 on FanDuel)
Sam Burns' career record at TPC Southwind is strong. Burns finished in the top 15 last week at Wyndham. Sam is a top-20 ranked par-70 scorer, with three of his four PGA TOUR wins coming on positional par-70 layouts. Colonial and Innisbrook are perfect comp courses for this week. Only three players in the field have more Bermuda wins (Rory, Scottie, Spieth). With a career scoring average at Southwind of 68.3, Burns can contend.
FedEx St. Jude Championship 2023: Best Bet of the Week!
Best Bet: Scottie Scheffler to finish in the top 5 (+145 on bet365)
If you think Scottie Scheffler will win, take this prop and wait on the outright bet. It could go lower after the start, but chances are the field will take off faster than Scheffler. When they do, his number will climb. Get him above the +650 advertised pre-tournament. Take the top 5 and wait, you’ll be glad you did because the best ball-striker in the game will be there on Sunday either way.
Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 21 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.