Genesis Scottish Open 2023 betting guide: PGA expert's best bets

The bettors have spoken and we’re changing up the format of the weekly betting preview for the PGA TOUR. No longer will we wait to get to the good stuff. I’m bringing the best bets of the week inside the article, because we live in a fast-paced world. I’m no different than the rest of you — when it comes to the weekend wagers to make, I want to know!

The PGA TOUR is packing up for a two-week sojourn across the Atlantic to the United Kingdom. Our first stop is the Genesis Scottish Open. The tournament has been contested for the past four years at The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland. Located next door to Muirfield, this sensational setting sits on the coast of the Firth of Forth. A par-70 layout covering 7,237 yards, the Tom Doak design gives you the perception this course has been hosting Scottish Opens for a century.

The defending champion is Xander Schauffele, who won with a seven under par total a year ago. Scotland was facing a serious drought last summer when the tournament was played. We expect polar opposite conditions this week for the fifth edition at the Renaissance Club. Wet weather has plagued the region, and we should see more throughout the event. Soft conditions usually mean better scoring on the PGA TOUR.

Be careful what you wish for — this is the Scottish coast. Temperatures will barely reach 60 degrees before the windchill off the water hits. Winds are expected to blow and challenge eight of the top 10 in the OWGR (30 of the top 50). The field of 156 is facing off for $9 million. This edition marks the fifth year in a row for the Renaissance Club. The first three ended in a playoff and last year, Schauffele won by a stroke over Kurt Kitayama.

I expect a close finish again, but with lower scoring. Get ready for early-morning golf. Much like the ladies last week at Pebble Beach, we will see some sweaters on these players. Two weeks of championship golf in the elements should be great entertainment — similar to the return we had last week when three of the four best bets from Read The Line cashed!

• Eric Cole winner, John Deere Classic (+3300) ❌
• Adam Schenk Top 20 (+175) ✅
• Doug Ghim Top 40 (+100) ✅
• Rose Zhang Top 10, women's U.S. Open (+162) ✅

To those who only read my predictions at the Sporting News, I encourage you to read my newsletter called Read The Line. Since January, I have predicted 663 bets covering the PGA TOUR and LPGA. The net return is over 15 percent with eight outright wins!

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Genesis Scottish Open winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe. For now, let's take a look at the odds and make our best bets.

Genesis Scottish Open 2023: Odds

Genesis Scottish Open 2023: The winning pick

Best bet to win: Tommy Fleetwood (+2200 Bet MGM)

The key to contending in the Scottish Open starts on the putting green. The Renaissance Club has some wonderful Doak green complexes. The greens are above average in size and move with the rolling landscape. Striking a consistent first putt is the key. Getting close enough with that approach alleviates stress and keeps scores under control. The three-putt percentage at TRC is well above the TOUR average. So keeping the total number of strokes with the flat-stick low is key.

The second priority: power. The Renaissance Club has a unique scorecard. Five par-3s, three par-5s averaging 590 yards in length, and ten par-4s. Seven of those 4s are over 440 yards long. The better one can drive the ball, the less they will face upon approach. The guys must let the shaft out off the tee. With windy conditions, controlling trajectory will be vital with the driver and a wedge.

Even the contenders won’t hit more than 60 percent of their GIRs, so short game acumen will be tested. Whether scoring on a par-5 from close range or saving par on one of those long par-4s, players will want to bring a deft wedge. Eighty bunkers cover the course. Sand skill will be needed in save situations over the course of 72 holes. These traits and recent leaderboards give us a great idea of who will win.

I’m tailing Tommy Fleetwood to the title. For several weeks, he has put himself in contention and just hasn't looked perfectly comfortable. The six-time DP World Tour winner is now back home in the United Kingdom. Tommy tops the rankings off-the-tee and around-the-green. Fleetwood is also an excellent putter and player from the sand. Life is full of little ironies. Nothing would make more sense than England’s Fleetwood winning his first PGA TOUR event in Europe.

Genesis Scottish Open 2023: One Scottish showdown (H2H)

Wyndham Clark H2H over Max Homa (-121 on PointsBet)

Wyndham Clark has created a career for himself in the last two months on TOUR. One year ago, he finished top 20 in the Scottish Open and some of us took notice. The power is one trait, but his grace around the greens is why he won a U.S. Open. Even though Max Homa tied Wyndham last year at the Renaissance Club, he has struggled as of late. Homa went home early in two of his last three starts. The declining trend has been with his short game and putter performing.

When you consider the characteristics needed to contend in Scotland’s national championship, Clark makes sense in this tournament matchup.

Genesis Scottish Open 2023: Best Bet of the Week!

Best bet to finish in the Top 5: Scottie Scheffler (+190 bet365)

Let’s close out the week with golf’s hottest golfer. Scottie Scheffler has finished in the top 5 for six straight events! The last time Scheffler finished outside the top five was in April. This streak of incredible finishes isn’t limited to recent months. Scottie has nine top-5 finishes this year and two wins. I won’t take him on a Wednesday at +700 to win, but a top 5 or 10 (+105) during this torrid streak makes plenty of sense.

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the John Deere Classic and US Women’s Open winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 16 outright wins in the last year and covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.