Open Championship 2023 expert bets: Our in-house PGA pro predicts the Open champ and top props

The 2023 Open Championship takes us back across the Atlantic for the second week in a row. If the Genesis Scottish Open taught us anything, it's that the weather remains undefeated. The field of 156 is set for the 151st Open, “British Open” or Open Championship — whatever you want to call it — and each of those competitors are vying to become the Champion Golfer of the Year.

The Open Championship 2023: The Royals

The last time we visited Royal Liverpool was 2014, when Rory McIlroy won the Open Championship by two strokes over Rickie Fowler and Sergio Garcia. Although Garcia won’t be joining us, the rest of that storyline still holds relevant nine years later. Set on the northwest coast of England, Royal Liverpool in the town of Hoylake has previously hosted 12 Opens. With a resume of champions that lists Hagen, Jones, Woods, and McIlroy, we expect another first-class winner.

Oddly enough, the current forecast for the tournament is eerily similar to 2014. Rain has consistently fallen in the United Kingdom, and the drought conditions we experienced last year at St. Andrews are long gone. Royal Liverpool is a pure links course. Resting against the Irish Sea, the mid-60s temperatures will feel quite cooler than further inland. An inch of rain is expected prior to the Open Championship this week. Thursday looks like the best day, but the rest will surely be wet.

Royal Liverpool sits on flat terrain. What was once a horse track, the par-71 scorecard is new. In previous editions, the field played to a par of 72. At 7,383 yards, this venue is far from the toughest in the Open rotation. In 2014, the scoring average was only .77 over par. That ranked as the 10th-toughest on the PGA TOUR that season. As a major championship venue, 10th place is not hard enough.

Rory McIlroy is certainly the favorite coming off of his win on Sunday at the Genesis Scottish Open. Closing with back-to-back birdies was impressive, but the real trick for McIlroy will be breaking that nine-year drought in majors. Scottie Scheffler dialed up a seventh-straight top-5 finish without a win in Scotland. With little closing potential, I am looking a little further down the betting board for our winner.

Genesis Scottish Open: Preview results

Tommy Fleetwood outright winner (+2200) ❌ (finished sixth)
Wyndham Clark H2H over Max Homa (-121) ❌
Scottie Scheffler to finish in the top 5 (+190) ✅

To those who only read my predictions at the Sporting News, I encourage you to read my newsletter called Read The Line. Since January, I have predicted 698 bets covering the PGA TOUR and LPGA. The net return is over 17 percent with NINE outright wins! Our most recent win was this past Sunday with Linn Grant (+2200) on the LPGA.

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Open Championship winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

The Open Championship 2023: Live Outright Odds

The Open Championship: The Champion golfer

Best bet to win: Collin Morikawa (+3500)

The ground conditions aren’t the only difference from Cam Smith’s Claret Jug victory a year ago. St. Andrews is a completely different course, featuring wide fairways and huge green complexes. The combined greens and parallel fairways gave the guys a wide open target off the tee. Royal Liverpool is a completely different playing experience. Each of the 14 fairways are fescue-lined. Eleven of them test you with bunkering off the tee, and six have out of bounds.

Our winner will need to be extremely accurate off the tee. Liverpool also possesses much smaller green surfaces. The entire course lacks any substantial elevation change, and therefore most of the greens aren’t that complex. When Woods (2006) and McIlroy (2014) won, they were the best ball-strikers for that week. Although Scottie Scheffler is the best T2G player, he doesn’t win as much as he contends.

Our goal is to find an accurate driver and great iron player — one who can avoid all 84 bunkers and secure as many GIRs as possible. Seven of the par-4s play over 450 yards. Long-iron acumen is required to set up as many birdie chances as possible. Our winner will be in the high teens if this forecast holds up. Separating from the field will take accurate approach play. The secret is in proximity to the hole, and there are few better on TOUR than my outright prediction.

Collin Morikawa won the Open Championship in 2021 at Royal St. George’s, a very similar links-style design to Royal Liverpool. Morikawa’s ability to strike his irons within feet of their target is essential to winning the Open. Links golf is a ground game, and hitting those correct landing areas off the tee and on approach is the key to winning. Collin is ranked top-20 on approach and off the tee. The media loves to malign his putting, but he has gained positive strokes on the green in four of his last five starts.

The Open Championship: Proper placement

Take Brooks Koepka to finish in the Top 20 (-110 on FanDuel)

Brooks Koepka is literally the scariest player in this field. At LIV Valderrama, he led the field in length off the tee and was eleventh in driving accuracy. Over in London, Koekpa was top 5 in GIRs and proximity to the hole. Second at Augusta, won the PGA, and seventeenth at the US Open. Watch Brooks pull out that infamous driving iron, hit a ton of fairways and contend again.

The Open Championship: Best Bet of the Week

Best bet to finish in the top 5: Scottie Scheffler (+190 on bet365)

Let’s close out the week with golf’s hottest golfer (again). Scottie Scheffler has finished in the top five for SEVEN STRAIGHT EVENTS! The last time Scheffler finished outside the top five it was April. This streak of incredible finishes isn’t limited to recent months. Scottie has 10 top-5s this year and two wins. I won’t take him on a Wednesday at +750 to win, but a top five on this streak is a must!

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Open Championship winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 16 outright wins in the last year and covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.