The Memorial Tournament 2023 betting guide: Our PGA expert checks in from Muirfield Village to reveal The Memorial’s best bets

Read The Line is back on site in Ohio at Muirfield Village Golf Club, host venue for The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday. The last time we walked side-by-side with the players, we won with Brooks Koepka at the PGA Championship. Let’s keep the streak alive and record back-to-back victories from the field.

The designated events and $20 million purses keep popping up on the PGA TOUR. A field of 120 players are ready at Jack Nicklaus’s home course to continue the tradition he started back in 1976. The wall of champions in the media center is a who’s who of the game from Tom Watson to Tiger Woods. Recently, Patrick Cantlay and Jon Rahm seem to have MVGC figured out.

Over the past 10 years, 11 PGA TOUR events have been contested at Muirfield Village (there were two tournaments played in 2020 during the modified COVID schedule that summer). A par-72 measuring 7,571 yards, the course was renovated completely after Cantlay won his first Memorial title back in 2019. Patrick’s winning score of 19 under par was enough to send Jack back to the design board following the 2020 tournaments.

Today, Muirfield Village is one of the most difficult tests on TOUR. Although the past champions list is varied, the skill set needed to take the title is not. Precision is a term used constantly around these acres. Nineteen of the top 25 players in the OWGR are ready to battle over a $3.6 million first-place check. Each edition of The Memorial is always a little unique. What can we expect looking ahead to 2023’s tournament?

The Memorial Tournament 2023: Odds

The Memorial Tournament 2023: Here comes the heat

Columbus, Ohio is dry. There has been 3.7” of rain in the month of May. Three and a half of those inches fell early in the month over two weeks ago. Muirfield Village GC is a state of the art facility. From irrigation to sub-air systems under the green surfaces, conditions are perfect for an entertaining weekend.

Course Superintendents love when it is dry. They can control the growing conditions and water when needed. I walked the course yesterday and it is a brick. Golf balls will bounce left and right across this landscape. Jack was all smiles in the interview room when he spoke about the conditions. He’s happy with the preparation and cannot wait to see how the guys score.

Since the 2020-21 enhancement, the winning score has been 13 under par in 2021 and 2022. A course covered in 70 bunkers and has 14 holes where water comes into play now can control the world’s best players. Length was added, but even more than length, Jack and his team changed some of the sightlines off the tee and made the par 5s more difficult. The result is a golf course which requires patience more than power most of the round.

The Memorial always has produced an eclectic group of winners. In the last decade, the average winner’s pre-tournament odds are +10400 (104-10). Five of those winners started The Memorial at +2200 or less, and five of them were over +5000! As far as similarities, I don’t write many preview stories where you see Jon Rahm and David Lingmerth’s name in the same sentence.

Scottie Scheffler is the tournament favorite and for a very good reason. In 2023, he has two wins and six top-5s, and he hasn’t finished higher than 12th in 11 starts! The ball striking T2G numbers are off the charts and the only attribute holding him back from winning every week is the putter. If he putts well at MVGC, it will look and feel like an early-2000’s Tiger performance all over again.

The Memorial Tournament 2023: Scoring from close range

The simple keys to scoring well at MVGC start with the par 5s. One of the toughest to score on all season, players who fare well here all week tend to contend come Sunday afternoon. The main reason why is the difficulty of the rest of the terrain. Fourteen holes at MVGC have a bogey rate over 15%. Danger lurks in many forms and if you aren’t precise, you won’t be here for the weekend.

Only one time in the last 19 years has the cutline after 36 holes been under par. The landscape moves like a large waterbed as you cross the terrain. Elevation changes from the tee and on approach supremely test your ball striking ability. Jack gives you room off the tee to find the fairway, but miss the short grass and face the toughest course from the rough on the PGA TOUR.

The average green size is just under 5,000 square feet. Smaller than the PGA TOUR standard with 7,500-plus yards to cover, those targets become even smaller. Players miss more greens than their average and therefore a strong short game becomes vital. The last five winners gained an average of 4.4 strokes around the green. The 2022 Champion, Billy Horschel, gained more with his short game than he did on approach in order to win. Players will need to rely on their bunker game as well, since 50 of the 70 bunkers at MVGC surround the green surfaces.

All skills are required to win on the PGA TOUR. Most weeks, we don’t see such a strong need for short game scoring. This particular skill will separate the field and is one of the main research points behind my best bets. Muirfield Village GC is in incredible shape. It will provide us with a world class champion and I cannot wait to see the week unfold on-site.

The Memorial Tournament 2023: Best Bets

Odds courtesy of BetMGM, DraftKings, and DraftKings Nation

Best bet to win: Patrick Cantlay (+1000 on BetMGM)

In seven starts at Muirfield Village, Patrick Cantlay has two wins and five top 10 finishes. He has the number one career scoring average in the field at MVGC and he is the best off the tee player currently on TOUR. Cantlay has gained over ten strokes against the field three times in his last seven events. What more can we say about the fourth ranked player in the world other than he will win The Memorial.

Best bet to finish in the Top 10: Scottie Scheffler (+140 on BetMGM)

Scottie Scheffler should win this week. At +650, the odds are so low it doesn't make it worth the risk. When I saw BetMGM offering positive odds for a top 10 finish, I had to share it with you. Scottie hasn’t finished outside the top 10 since mid-April and that was over three starts ago! Take the #1 player in the world to keep rolling right into the US Open with another strong finish.

Will there be a playoff? Yes (+300 on DraftKings)

The Memorial has seen five playoffs over the last 10 years. And Collin Morikawa also won the aforementioned extra tournament in 2020 (the week before The Memorial was played) in a playoff. That’s six playoffs in 11 tournaments over a 10-year span. The changes to this course promote scoring congestion. Take the +300 odds and add it to Cantlay’s outright when he takes the trophy in extra holes Sunday afternoon.

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the PGA Championship winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by five-time award-winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 15 outright wins in the last year and covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.