RBC Canadian Open 2023 betting guide: Our PGA expert breaks down the best bets at Canada's national championship

The RBC Canadian Open tees off Thursday at the Oakdale Golf and Country Club in the suburbs of Toronto. Two-time RBC Canadian champ Rory McIlroy highlights the field that will be vying for a portion of the 117th annual tournament's $9 million purse. Today we will discuss our best bets and value picks ahead of what should be a fun weekend of golf north of the border. 

Celebrating Read the Line's sixth outright win of the season!

In a week full of wild golf news, let’s start with the good stuff. Read The Line predicted our sixth outright winner of the season when Viktor Hovland captured The Memorial. This was our third on-site win in a row, and third win in five weeks! On top of that, he won in a playoff and Scottie Scheffler finished inside the top 10. Both were Sporting News best bets last week (if you didn’t see my Viktor pick, it's time you subscribe to Read The Line).

My weekly SN Bets article is merely a preview of the full narrative I create every week covering all the betting stories surrounding the PGA TOUR. Take a look at some of the picks that cashed bets for our subscribers and followers last week:

Viktory Monday! 😁

See what we did there? 😜@MemorialGolf Pre-Tournament Winning Picks
Playoff (Yes) +300 ✅
Viktor Hovland to win +2000 ✅

That was last week. We're hungry for ANOTHER win at the @RBCCanadianOpen.🤑

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— Read The Line (@readtheline_) June 5, 2023

Now, let's carry this momentum into the RBC Canadian Open!

Bettors beware: Do your due diligence

This is the first time in the 117-year history of the tournament it has visited Toronto's Oakdale Golf and Country Club. The club opened in 1926 and the original 18 holes were designed by Stanley Thompson. Another nine were added over the years and now the tournament course for the Canadian Open uses holes from each of the three nines.

Bettors beware: Make sure your research covers the correct holes. The front nine consists of four holes from the Thompson nine and five more from the Homenuik nine. The back nine is made up of the last nine holes called the Knudson nine. Those holes are named for eight-time PGA TOUR winner and Canadian professional George Knudson.

Speaking of great Canadian golfers, the last time a native of Canada won their national championship was 1914. In stark contrast to that level of success, the PGA TOUR has seen three separate Canadians win this season.

Let's take a look at the odds for the 2023 RBC Canadian Open, and then discuss the course, conditions, recipe for winning, and best bets. 

RBC Canadian Open 2023: Odds to win

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RBC Canadian Open 2023: Course and conditions

Oakdale’s composite course is a parkland-style layout. The par-72 scorecard measures 7,264 yards. Twelve par-4s, three par-3s, and three par-5s will test 11 of the top 25 in the OWGR. The field of 156 is competing for $9 million and a first-place check of $1.62 million. The top 65 and ties play the weekend for a chance at becoming Canada’s champion. Eight of the holes have water in play and there are 61 bunkers throughout the 18 holes.

Some short game strategy may be needed, but overall most of the approach shots will be coming in from 150 yards and less. These guys don’t miss from that range, so I prefer putting acumen over chipping skill. Since most of the guys will hit the green, separating yourself from the field requires hitting it closer. A player’s proximity to the hole creates better birdie opportunities. The players who perform better with a wedge in their hand will populate our best bets.

The Toronto regional forecast calls for temperatures in the low 70s. The wind will increase in strength round-by-round, topping out on Sunday at 12-15 miles per hour. Rounds 1 and 2 look dry, but there is a 50 percent chance of rain on Saturday and Sunday. The course looks lush to begin with — keeping the ball out of the rough is a primary concern, especially if it gets wet.

Favorites have played well in this national championship. Five of the last 10 winners' pre-tournament odds were under +1400. Can a Canadian break through for the first time in over 100 years?

RBC Canadian Open 2023: Mount up

The best approach players tend to lead the TOUR in earnings. Tiger Woods was the best iron player the game has ever seen and he won 82 times. Attacking these greens with a wedge or scoring iron is the beginning of a blueprint for contending — although I believe cashing in on those approach shots is really the key. The subtleties of these greens will come out over 72 holes.

In speaking with the renovation architect Ian Andrew, he stressed the importance of converting birdies. Considering the length of most holes and the three par-5s, making birdies will be the number one key for success.

The ones separating themselves on Sunday will be the guys who can score on the par-4s and stay out of the rough. Total T2G play counts, and this field is very top-heavy. The favorite is two-time defending champion McIlroy, but Tyrell Hatton, Sam Burns, and Justin Rose also stand out among the field. Those last two have already recorded wins in 2023.

The terrain Oakdale sits on is quite varied — there are plenty of approach shots that will be played from uneven lies, and there are a ton of elevation changes throughout the property. Accuracy becomes even more important when you consider these guys will be playing over hill and dale. Any player who wants to contend will need to believe in their ball striking and capitalize when close.

If The Memorial was preparation for the US Open, this course will provide a nice confidence boost one week prior. Aggressive iron players will be rewarded north of the border. So, mount up, and ride a hot putter to victory. Here is a sample of Read The Line’s best bets for the RBC Canadian Open.

RBC Canadian Open 2023: Best Bets

Best bet to win: Tommy Fleetwood (+2200 on FanDuel)

When will Tommy Fleetwood win? Diving deep into Oakdale, I can say with certainty this setup favors the six-time DP World Tour winner. Fleetwood's ball striking has been exemplary as of late. He's ranked fourth in SG:T2G and second in par-4 scoring. Combine that with a very strong short game (ranked eighth), and you know why he's a great choice for this contest.

Best bet to win H2H: Justin Rose over Cameron Young (+120 on FanDuel)

Justin Rose won earlier in the season on a similar-style accuracy test at Pebble Beach. The Englishman just finished 12th at Colonial and ninth at the PGA Championship. Meanwhile, Cam Young has struggled. He missed the cut at the PGA and The Memorial. The putter is killing him, and I doubt he will find it on a course none of the players have ever seen before.

Best bet to win H2H: Tyrell Hatton over Rory McIlroy (+115 on DraftKings)

Rory McIlroy likely cannot help but be distracted by the major golf news of the week. The third-ranked player in the world has been missing cuts and just fired a not-so-great 75 on Sunday at The Memorial. Tyrell Hatton is one of the best ball strikers in the field and enters the weekend in great form. Hatton’s last four finishes are third, fifth, 15th, and 12th.

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the RBC Canadian Open winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by five-time award-winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 16 outright wins in the last year and covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.