Ryder Cup: The Eternal City
The entire sporting world will be focused on the “Eternal City” of Rome this weekend, when the 44th Ryder Cup takes place at Marco Simone Golf and Country Club. Located just a quick drive east of the city limits, this annual host of the DP World Tour’s Italian Open is about to become part of golf history.
For those unfamiliar with this biannual event, 12 players from Europe take on 12 players from the United States in a match-play competition. The three-day competition will start with four foursome matches on Friday morning. Foursomes is commonly referred to as alternate shot. Each team will determine who tees off on the odd holes, and the other partner will tee off on the even holes. Once they tee off, the players alternate until the ball is holed. The team with the low score wins the hole. Win more holes than your opponents, and you win the match.
On Friday afternoon, the two sides will compete in fourball matches. Fourball is easy to remember, since there are four balls in play. Each team of two players takes their best score and matches it against the other team's best score at the completion of each hole. Win more holes than your opponent, and you win the match. The same format will also be followed on Saturday (Day 2). On Sunday, all 12 players will compete head-to-head (H2H) individually against the other team.
Each match is worth one point. If you are tied after 18 holes, the two teams receive a half point. There are eight foursome, eight fourball, and 12 individual matches. The United States needs 14 points to win the Ryder Cup and Europe needs 14.5 points. Since 28 total points are available, there can be a tie. In that case, the team that currently holds the Cup (USA) keeps it. Does that ever happen? Well, yes, but rarely — it has happened twice in Ryder Cup history (1969, 1989).
Marco Simone has a par-71 scorecard measuring 7,268 yards. The course is perfectly suited to the risk/reward nature of match play. Since each player’s score only matters for the hole they are on, these 24 men will play aggressively, attacking the flagstick and making sub-par scores at will. The weather forecast is almost as hot as the competition. Temperatures are forecasted in the mid-80s with a slight wind all three days. The course has seen very little rain recently and should play firm and fast.
The Fortinet Championship scored two wins for this column. Dylan Wu (+120) finished in the Top 40 and Chez Reavie won H2H over Webb Simpson (-120). Time to carry over that success into the Ryder Cup!
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Course conditions don’t favor either side, but the course setup can. Unlike other years, the European Team resembles the Americans in many ways. With such similar skill sets, it seems unlikely they will try to curtail the U.S. bombers considering they have a bunch of great drivers as well. On paper, the match is close, the course is challenging, and history sides with the home team. The United States has not won a Ryder Cup on foreign soil since 1993.
The U.S. won 19-9 the last time these two sides met in Wisconsin. They are slight betting favorites, and have a very good chance to keep the Cup. How will they write history this week? Keep reading.
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Ryder Cup: Live Match Odds
Odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook
| Winner | Odds |
| Europe | +100 |
| USA | +110 |
| Tie | +1100 |
Ryder Cup: Defeating the Roman Empire
These two teams appear to be evenly matched. My first impression of the Rome rendezvous was an early lean toward the European side. They have 30 years of history in their favor. Then I really started to dig into the specific aspects of what it takes to win. The first question is who has built the better team. I believe the United States is deeper and holds more experience. Europe has 21 Cup appearances on their side, but that equates to an aggregate 36-39-12 record. The United States has played in 17 Cups and boasts a 34-22-13 record.
It hasn’t happened in a very long time, but we hold better memories. The Europeans have lost two of the last three and suddenly feel the pressure to perform. Team construction is also about developing a plan. Our Captain’s picks were designed to build pairings for the team matches — partners who can play foursomes and fourball together. We failed at the Ryder Cup for decades because our two best players (Tiger and Phil) never had a winning partnership.
We have several pairings now within our team that have proven successful. We followed the European formula and it works. Each side has four rookies. The Americans hold another experience edge: two of our rookies (Max Homa and Sam Burns) played in the Presidents’ Cup. Our other two rookies won majors…this year! Compared to the DP Czech winner Ludvig Åberg and John Deere Classic champion Sepp Straka, I like our chances.
After a super deep dive into the player analytics, the two sides are very well-balanced. Both are essentially excellent ball-striking teams at the top. The Europeans are better putters and we have the advantage around the greens. In most matches, when you are chipping, you’re losing. Marco Simone has three reachable par-4s and three par-5s. Short game will allow for easy scoring on those holes after the long approaches.
Comparing team depth, we will carry an edge. The Europeans can’t hide everyone throughout three days. At some point, they all have to play and those points are valuable. Over the last five Ryder Cups, the Europeans carry a slight scoring edge in foursomes and the U.S. holds a larger advantage in fourball. The singles matches lean toward the European side, but when you add it all up, the score remains very close.
Watching the practice round coverage, reading the rhetoric, and listening to the interviews, the United States sounds more comfortable. They know who is going to play with whom. Our match pairings are coming together, while Europe is still constructing theirs. That’s a vital key to winning. Why are the United States pairings easier? They all like one another. They met 20 years ago playing national junior events. Some refer to our process as a buddies' trip. I believe we are copying the European formula: pick great golfers who want to play together.
The Ryder Cup will be close — thirty years are hard to overcome. In the end, we currently hold the Cup. Europe must score 14.5 points to take it away, and that’s the final advantage. This will be very close, and if it ends in a tie, we keep it. It’s tough to handicap a match of this magnitude. With so many moving parts, you cannot help but speculate in certain ways. I picked the USA to win convincingly in Wisconsin two years ago. I trusted this group then, and clearly understand what they need to do now.
Ryder Cup: The trend is your friend
Best bet to win: United States (+110)
For all of the reasons listed above and many more, the United States will retain the Ryder Cup. Thirty years is a long time. The last team to win on foreign soil had two major champions and a couple of controversial Captain’s selections. Sound familiar? These 12 Americans are heading into the arena. They know it is not the critic that counts. They realize there is no effort without error, and their valor will be rewarded. Europe represents a very difficult foe, but the core of this team plays like the foreign teams we have lost to so many times before. The streak will end in Rome, and those of us who bet the American side will be able to enjoy every minute of it!
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