U.S. Open betting guide: Our PGA expert breaks down the best bets for the 123rd U.S. national championship and third major of 2023

What you are about to see on television when you turn on the 123rd U.S. Open will absolutely blow your mind. Los Angeles Country Club is the host of our national championship. The iconic course, with an even more elite address, is about to open its gates for the first time and let the entire golfing world inside. Southern California has hosted a couple of U.S. Opens, but Hollywood hasn’t seen this event since Ben Hogan won in 1948 at Riviera Country Club across town.

I’m on site covering all the betting angles for this major championship, just like last month at the PGA Championship. I have played LACC North’s Course and cannot get enough of watching the players prepare for this new venue. The national championship is a full test — and how can we win without golf betting’s most complete on-site and in-play coverage at Read The Line!

Hollywood couldn’t write the current script we find ourselves following. In a dramatic turn of events, the PGA TOUR has partnered with Saudi Arabia’s PIF and now the golfing world as we know it is in the process of being redefined. Sounds like the perfect time for a major championship hosted by a town that rolls out award-winning cinema all the time.

MORE U.S. OPEN BETTING: Sleepers, long shots, and props

The field of 156 exempt players and qualifiers will compete for 60 spots (and ties) over the weekend. Twenty-three of the top 25 in the OWGR are on hand to help this drama play out. In true Hollywood fashion, the USGA has not announced the purse yet. Last year, it was the largest of the four major championships at $17.5 million dollars. Of course, the PGA TOUR now has multiple events with purses over $20 million, so we’ll see what golf’s governing body can afford.

Let's take a look at the odds for the 2023 U.S. Open, then discuss the LACC North Course and expected conditions, go over some keys to winning, and finally get to our best bets for the weekend. Showtime!

U.S. Open 2023: Live Outright, Top 5, and Top 10 Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Read The Line was at it again last weekend. Our four outrights on the PGA TOUR finished second, sixth, sixth, and eighth. Congratulations to the LPGA’s Ashleigh Buhai, who won the ShopRite LPGA Classic. She was one of our pre-tournament picks and earned us our seventh win of the season! That’s our fourth win in six weeks and our second winning weekend in a row. Let's make it three weeks in a row at the U.S. Open!

U.S. Open 2023: Course introduction and conditions

I could write an endless essay on the North Course at LACC. Designed in 1928 by George Thomas, the course we will see this week was renovated by the team of Gil Hanse, Jim Wagner, and Geoff Shackelford in 2010. Measuring 7,421 yards, the course plays to a par-70 with 10 par-4s, five par-3s, and three par-5s. LACC sits on a hillside that connects the Hollywood hills to Century City.

The course is decorated with 65 perfectly-placed bunkers and a barranca that runs through the lower side of the course. A drainage ditch (barranca) that comes into play on seven holes, it is filled with sand and trouble. Get caught in there, and you will do well to save bogey! The design measures ball-striking ability from start to finish. With six par-4s over 460 yards and two par-3s measuring 280-plus, length never hurts your chances at a major championship.

Los Angeles was relentlessly showered with rain at the start of the year. Since early 2023, this region has not seen much precipitation at all. It hasn’t rained in L.A. since May 19! The recent weather gives the USGA a golden opportunity to create a firm and fast test for the U.S. open field.

U.S. Open 2023: The short and long of it all!

When the field is new to the venue, short game is the ultimate differentiator. As the players learn LACC’s North Course, those who can keep their round on track will rise to the top of the leaderboard. This course has some incredible situations where you’ll need a very high golf IQ and imagination. Keep an eye on bunker play as well. The North Course is a MasterClass in bunkering. Follow those who have around-the-green acumen, and you’re off to a good start.

Some fairways are wider than others. LACC has really wide landing areas off the tee for a U.S. Open setup. The challenge comes with the fact they are not level. Players will need to shape the ball into these titled landing zones. If you hit the ball moving along with the ground it will be very tough to control. Shape it against the slope and you can hold your target. Watch the best off the tee take advantage of this part of the examination.

There are a lot of long iron shots on this course. Forty-four percent of the iron shots come from over 200 yards. Three of the five par-3s are over 215 yards. Major championship setups separate the field. One reason is the dependency on your long iron game. Players cannot routinely miss from this distance and expect to get up and down. Seventy-two holes is a long test — and with nearly half of your scoring shots coming in from long range, you better have a handle on those irons to come close on Sunday.

A firm course with incredible design features is a great start for a major championship. Throw in a brand new venue and you’ll quickly realize why I am favoring those with previous major championship success in this week’s best bets.

U.S. Open 2023: Best Bets

Best bet to win: Brooks Koepka (+1200 on FanDuel)

I know Scottie Scheffler is the odds-on favorite to win the U.S. Open — but in my mind, Brooks Koepka is the one to beat. Since 2017, Koepka has the lowest scoring average in the majors. He also has the lowest scoring average on par-70 golf courses over the past five seasons on the PGA TOUR. Short game? In his last four LIV events, Brooks has finished among the top-seven in scrambling. What better way to say "I told you so" than winning a third national championship one year after answering questions about leaving to play LIV?

Best bet to finish in the Top 10: Jordan Spieth (+220 on BetMGM)

Jordan Spieth is hitting the ball similar to 2015 when he was winning multiple majors. The short game magician will make the field disappear in route to victory. In his last seven starts, he has gained over 10 strokes against the field four times! LACC is going to hand out some bad bounces and nobody’s better at creating his own luck than Jordan.

Take Patrick Reed over Sam Burns H2H (-110 on DraftKings)

Sam Burns has struggled lately with his ball striking. The putter has saved a bunch of rounds, but the US Open is a comprehensive test. With three missed cuts in his last five starts, I have concerns. Patrick Reed is eighth in scoring average at the US Open and fifteenth in major championship scoring average since 2017. Reed always finds a way to compete and with a heavy weight on short game, I love this edge over Burns.

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the 123rd US Open winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 16 outright wins in the last year and covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.