RBC Heritage 2023 betting guide: PGA expert best bets, winning wagers from Harbour Town

Less than 24 hours removed from the Masters, 46 players left Augusta, Georgia and headed three hours southeast to the coast to play in the RBC Heritage. Contested annually at Harbour Town Golf Links on Hilton Head Island, the best will once again have their hands full with a much different challenge than Magnolia Lane.

Designed by Pete Dye in 1969, the coastal course is our third Dye design in five weeks on the PGA TOUR. The par 71 scorecard features:

• Four par-3s with an average length of 202 yards and playing to approximately .5 strokes over par.
• Three par-5s with an average 40% birdie rate.
• Ten par-4s, each with a specific test on both the drive and the approach.

Harbour Town can be quite predictable like Augusta National. Course history tends to help you contend. Over the last ten years, the average winning score is 14 under par. With a cutline average of +1 in that same stretch of time, scoring will be tight for the top 65 and ties who make it through the 36-hole cut for the weekend.

• The field is 143 players with 38 players from the top 50 in the OWGR.
• The purse for this designated event is $20 million dollars and $3.6 million will be paid out to the winner.

Let's take a look at the 2023 RBC Heritage odds, discuss some variables like weather and winning trends, and then make our best bets for this 

RBC Heritage 2023: Odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

RBC Heritage: Weather and what it takes to win

Unfortunately, weather took center stage over Augusta National’s golf course last week. Inches of rain and cold weather plagued the festivities. Toward the coast, our forecast is far better. Temperatures will sit in the mid to high 70’s for all four rounds. Early Friday morning there’s a good chance of a shower, but overall it will be much drier than a week ago.

I have been on the property since Tuesday morning, and I can say the ball is bouncing. The coastal soil drains well and rain has not been prevalent here in recent weeks. For an island, the wind should be tame as the peak over the four rounds is just around 10-12 mph.

Of course that’s great news. Harbour Town is an extreme accuracy contest. Sprawled out through the low country landscape these holes are tree lined. One can easily get claustrophobic trying to find the fairway fourteen times per round. Truth be told, the par 3s do not offer large landing areas either. HTGL boasts the second smallest average green size on tour (3,700 sq/ft). Only Pebble Beach’s green surface area is smaller.

RBC Heritage history: Past results and trends

Results of the RBC have been interesting over the last decade. The average winner’s pre-tournament odds have been +8200 (82-1). There aren’t many tournaments where CT Pan’s name is next to Webb Simpson’s! Or five-time winner Davis Love III shares the same champion's plaque with Sotashi Kodiara.

Even though the winner list is populated with long shots there’s two very important things to keep in mind. The first, this is a designated event. The last time the Masters winner played the week after the tournament was 2015. Now we have ten players in the field who finished in the top 10 on the leaderboard last week.

I’ve already mentioned driving accuracy as a priority. Past the necessity to thread the needle down the fairway, approach play shows the most significant gain by our recent winners. Each of the last ten have gained an average 6 shots on the field with their iron game. Nearly 50% of the approach shots come in with a mid-iron from 150-200 yards. Hitting the green is not only important, but it keeps you out of trouble.

The greens at Harbour Town are surrounded with deep bunkers and water. Each of those very difficult par 3s have water to contend with. Fifty-four bunkers can be found throughout the scorecard. Some of those sandy holes even have steps to help you get in and out. Where water and sand are missing, most greens have swales surrounding the putting surface. Chipping from tight lies to small greens takes confidence.

Jordan Spieth lost a couple strokes to the field last year putting while picking up his tartan jacket. The winner this week will receive a coat. Unlike the elegant green of Augusta National, this week the winner receives a plaid sportcoat. Spieth’s victory over Patrick Cantlay secured his win in a playoff a year ago. Jordan used his around the green talents to eventually take the title. Winners will need to sharpen their short game skills. Many of the holes will take a little wedge work to save par or score on a par 5.

Those par 5s will be crucial for keeping up. Conditions are perfect around this place. Walking the course yesterday, I could see scoring going into the high teens. Par 5 efficiency and surviving those par 3s are easy starting points. Fact is, over the years par 4 scoring separates the field. There are eight par 4s under 450 yards. These guys will find the fairway and attack. Past champions like Webb Simpson, Jim Furyk, and Matt Kuchar have been some of the best par 4 players of the last twenty years.

Winning the week after a major takes a lot of focus and a little resolve. Keep an eye on these best bets as you prepare for the RBC Heritage.

RBC Heritage 2023: Best Bets

All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Best bet to win: Collin Morikawa (+1800)

Eight of the last ten RBC winners played in the Masters. That trend will continue this year. Collin Morikawa’s game was built to play courses like Harbour Town. His precise fade off the tee and on approach fit the landscape. He’s ranked fourth in the field T2G and fifth on approach. Those skills make him an excellent par 4 scorer. He’s one of the best mid-iron players in the world and the flatness of these greens will help him heat up with the putter.

Best bet to finish in the Top 10: Scottie Scheffler (+110)

Scottie Scheffler was first in the field at the Masters in strokes gained tee to green. He was dead last in strokes gained putting for those making the cut. That won’t happen two weeks in a row. Scheffler’s too good and his ability to be accurate will keep him contending on Dye’s design.

Best H2H matchup: Cam Young over Justin Thomas (-126)

It must have been a shock to Justin Thomas missing the cut last week. Normally a weekend warrior at Augusta National, JT’s season just hasn’t been “normal.” He has one top 10 in a designated event this season. Cameron Young finished third here a year ago. He just finished T7 at the Masters with a closing 68 and has a new secret weapon; Webb Simpson’s caddie. Paul Tesori has worked at the RBC for more than two decades. Webb has even won here. Look for Cam to contend while JT is still figuring things out.

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering LPGA and PGA TOUR winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 15 outright wins in the last year and covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.